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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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12 minutes ago, frd said:

Wonder what the accuracy of the Euro is to the GFS in this area of the strat.

I would simply assume that the superior physics of the Euro would equate to a better, more accurate forecast. 

 

I  am not sure about the outcomes here for our areas versus a split or no split. Seems the Euro and the Canadian have it and the GFS no . 

Judah says too difficult to tell at this time.

I know a couple days ago the GFS ensembles vs the op were not even on the same page.  

 

Gee wonder what part of this post will get attention 

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18 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

We all got spoiled by the heater we were on from 2009-2016. Even in a horrible year in 2016, we had an epic snowstorm. We had two winters in there where it was really cold and we kept getting hit by storms. We had our most epic snow season ever in there where we had three huge storms. 2010-2011 also had that fun bowling ball where went from rain to concrete and it snowed like 8 inches over a 3-4 hour period. And the 2014 storm around Valentines Day was also good, though much better for you than city area folks. That was an epic snowstorm for many northwest folks even if it was a disappointment in a lot of ways for the immediate metro. 

And now we've had two straight crappy winters. I know we ended up around climo last year, but how we got there sucked. We nickeled and dimed our way there, and a bunch of those smaller events didn't even stick on roads and wasn't even really enough to build a snowman or go sledding. I'll admit I'm even a bit anxious just to see a moderate storm where we get 8-10 hours of moderate snowfall and a nice 3-6/4-8 with lots of road stickage.

 

 

I've been reading through 24 hours of posts and see that the stress level is pretty high on this thread. This post is exactly what I've been thinking. Last year was epic for those on the mid Atlantic coast, but the D.C. Area has really failed for a couple of years. And we really sucked in December after losing a much anticipated storm.  People are already starting to panic.  Don't we have a Panic Room for that?   I tried it out once... too depressing for me. 

In other news, I'm trying to follow what is going on with the models for the upcoming week until New Years.  I'm seeing signs of rain or snow showers on the 24th or 26th.  Isn't there usually a short/medium  term thread or is that only when we have a potential snow maker in the near future? 

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18 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Wasn’t there a storm a few years ago (2014 or 2015) where it was in the teens at onset and then everyone complained about getting pixie dust and that it was too cold to form good dendrites?  We’ll complain about everything.  

That was later Feb or early March IIRC.  What stung was the fact that leading up to the even even the Euro was clocking the region with a solid warning level event.  The evening before, however, the meso guidance started to show anemic lift within the DGZ during the heart of the storm.  I believe it was @WxUSAF and @Bob ChiII who first raise the caution flag about this but the peanut gallery drowned them out.  

40 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

That was a horrible storm. I think it was 2015. 

Indeed.  A real gut punch.

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23 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That was later Feb or early March IIRC.  What stung was the fact that leading up to the even even the Euro was clocking the region with a solid warning level event.  The evening before, however, the meso guidance started to show anemic lift within the DGZ during the heart of the storm.  I believe it was @WxUSAF and @Bob ChiII who first raise the caution flag about this but the peanut gallery drowned them out.  

Indeed.  A real gut punch.

The dry air pac man effect. Remember it well. I wasn't overly concerned until the radar sig started showing it in real time. Then it was confirmed that things were going wrong. One of the things working against us that year was entirely northern stream for the most part. Much easier to disrupt synoptics when moisture is so so. One of the big reasons why nina snows are more commonly nickel and dime style. We had a lot of events so that made up for not having southern strram support 

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GFS with potential for NYE. Close to the 6z FV3 which gave us a big snow. Good chance we’ll all be able to avoid our families on Xmas to check model updates. 

An all snow event is probably tough, but a snow-ice-rain/dryslot evolution certainly seems possible. 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

GFS with potential for NYE. Close to the 6z FV3 which gave us a big snow. Good chance we’ll all be able to avoid our families on Xmas to check model updates. 

An all snow event is probably tough, but a snow-ice-rain/dryslot evolution certainly seems possible. 

I’ll be back home on the 30th, so perfect timing for me.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS with potential for NYE. Close to the 6z FV3 which gave us a big snow. Good chance we’ll all be able to avoid our families on Xmas to check model updates. 

An all snow event is probably tough, but a snow-ice-rain/dryslot evolution certainly seems possible. 

It will likely depend on where the boundary sets up following the cutter around the 28th and then the timing and spacing between the waves.  But its certainly possible, we have scored in worse looks.  Things look to continue to get better from an overall pattern perspective after that so plenty of action coming soon I think.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It will likely depend on where the boundary sets up following the cutter around the 28th and then the timing and spacing between the waves.  But its certainly possible, we have scored in worse looks.  Things look to continue to get better from an overall pattern perspective after that so plenty of action coming soon I think.  

Guidance seems confident in yet another strong shortwave digging into the SW (how many of those have we seen lately!?!) after Xmas. Where it goes from there depends on other factors. Airmass behind the post-Xmas storm looks much better than anything lately. Legit continental polar. So pieces in place but lots of time for adjusting important details. 

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End of GFS run looks ugly over the CONUS but good things starting to happen up top.  That would quickly lead to a good pattern after.  Hopefully we can score something from the threat around New Years which isn't the actually good pattern setting in IMO but a transient window of opportunity as we transition.  

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Even though this is a somewhat old tweet the visuals and animation show the relationship and lag effect, it is pretty cool. 

This might be relevant to what is coming up in the next month

tropospheric (T) and stratospheric (S) circulations interact

 

 

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53 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

End of GFS run looks ugly over the CONUS but good things starting to happen up top.  That would quickly lead to a good pattern after.  Hopefully we can score something from the threat around New Years which isn't the actually good pattern setting in IMO but a transient window of opportunity as we transition.  

Saw a 3D graphic the other day animating the SSW. I want to revisit if I can find it as it would likely show the downwelling and likely influence at levels we want to see it at. 

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41 minutes ago, mappy said:

hopefully this is the last of the therapy sessions for you. at least in this thread. its cluttered it up enough honestly. 

I wouldn't mind you clearing all my posts from today...don't want anyone else to lose sight of the real weather discussion because of my own idiocy (I'd do it myself...but I'm not trying to look back at those again, lol)

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