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December/January Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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13 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

GEFS has decent signal for storm around NYE although rain still favored.  

 

 

E61B5163-5E6A-4A87-AAD8-02661B4F92CF.png

I have no doubt we will be adding a week to 10 days to whatever we think the date is for a serviceable pattern.  so it all goes back to 15 Jan timeframe we hope. 

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51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I wouldn't mind you clearing all my posts from today...don't want anyone else to lose sight of the real weather discussion because of my own idiocy (I'd do it myself...but I'm not trying to look back at those again, lol)

nah. if you want them gone, you can remove them yourself. 

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32 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not exactly the best look in lala land on the GEFS...

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png

That's fine.  The core of the lower heights in the NW are offshore finally and west of Alaska, ideally would like it a little southwest of there still but its OK.  The atlantic side is getting right and we see the -NAO starting to build.  We are still left recovering over the CONUS but as the blocking continues to build up top the pattern will improve.  The ensembles will rush things from time to time and we will see a run that jumps right to the end result a little too soon and get excited then some will be let down when the next run reverts to a slower progression but things are still on track.  The analogs and seasonal and sub seasonal guidance suggested that around the 15th on is when it should get really good.  That is the 5th right there and the pattern is already on its way.  From there we are likely only a week away.  Don't rush things.  

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I shouldn't have asked ya that (already knew you were gonna say that). Can my posts still be seen if they were quoted? (not the responses, just the quotes)

yes. if anyone quotes your posts, even if yours are removed, the replies to them can be seen. 

at this point just embrace you made some questionable posts and move on. i think that is what most are asking.

if you want though, i will happily delete any whiny posts of yours moving forward (in this thread) 

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is the FV3 at 384..January 5th. The pattern looks horrible and a week of January is already in the books

 

fv3p_z500a_namer_65.png

An op run at 16 days. Yep, I am sure that is locked in. It's all over but the crying. 

eta: Didn't you tell us just a little while ago that the FV3 sucks. And here you are hugging it at day 16? 

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44 minutes ago, Ji said:

here is the FV3 at 384..January 5th. The pattern looks horrible and a week of January is already in the books

 

fv3p_z500a_namer_65.png

384 op run and your cancelling?  Come on Debbie.  Sounds like Maestro bit you.  At least show an ensemble.  Your better than this...and you know it :) 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png

 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Great look on the EPS in January. GEFS keeps bouncing between meh and good. Maybe related to it flip flopping on the strat?

Good to hear.  Wondering when the "official" SSW alarm will be (or was) sounded, cause then we can factor it into when it shows up on the models.  Thinking the end of the LR Ens might be a reflection??  30ish days is lag time from my limited knowledge.

Anyone have thoughts or knowledge and want to hedge a guess?

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

384 op run and your cancelling?  Come on Debbie.  Sounds like Maestro bit you.  At least show an ensemble.  Your better than this...and you know it :) 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_65.png

 

Look at the Pacific tho. Just half of that setup is enough to cancel the party. We're probably overdue for this kind of setup.

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21 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Not ideal but this is a pretty good luck on the EPS....

EPS 336.png

Everything is right on track. Today's EPS day 15 is amazingly consistent with the weeklies for the same time from the 0z Monday run. For a 15/18 day prog this is amazing consistency. Yea the trough over the Conus is weaker but the look that matters for the pattern evolution up top is identical. Same in pna nao and epo domains. The pattern is progressing exactly as it's supposed too. 

Todays EPS for Jan 4

IMG_8025.thumb.PNG.e25ed6e8c639a3cb1a1bf90bea5dd064.PNG

weeklies from Monday for Jan 4

IMG_8024.thumb.PNG.8d64fc11259cdbfa093af6da67d23311.PNG

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3 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

Look at the Pacific tho. Just half of that setup is enough to cancel the party. We're probably overdue for this kind of setup.

Agreed.  Not saying its good verbatim, but to @psuhoffman's point, pattern evolution may be rushed, and we can both agree that while theres no arctic express as depicted, PNA looks to be headed + and we lost the stupid red flame ball in the midwest.  It's not perty, but its progress.  

 

edit.....see psu's post above.  He types w/ all 10....I type w/ 2...

 

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Just now, Vice-Regent said:

It's all cutter city garbage pattern. I would chime in if it was noteworthy. We need everything in our court these days to get snow at the shore.

WTF? 

I'm not playing along.....go back to your corner and commence kickin stones.  Put safety glasses on though cause your vision already seems suspect.   

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22 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

It's all cutter city garbage pattern. I would chime in if it was noteworthy. We need everything in our court these days to get snow at the shore.

You complained about the torch pattern last February and we got a sequence of 4 nor'easters in March, 2 of which gave a decent bit of us measurable snow. 

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16 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

You complained about the torch pattern last February and we got a sequence of 4 nor'easters in March, 2 of which gave a decent bit of us measurable snow. 

A broken clock is right twice a day as it were. The jet stream seems to get all whacked out in March. I would count on us scoring big as much as torching this year.

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44 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Great look on the EPS in January. GEFS keeps bouncing between meh and good. Maybe related to it flip flopping on the strat?

Yes, I have been reading that around certain sites that the focus on the strat the MJO has been causing issues. I read that based where the model thinks the MJO will be, and all that goes with it ,causes some issues at times in it's forecast of the strat and hence the look up top. Today it has been flip and flopping. I believe more consistency with the Euro and the strat. 

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