WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 19 minutes ago, Ji said: 19z gfs has a snow xmas eve Nice. 18z did too. 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: i should have looked at this first... https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf we're due. That's part of the reason I've been a little edgy...we most certainly are due. I mean 3 consecutive below average years has happened before, but...the longer ya go, the harder it is too stay logical when the season comes, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nice. 18z did too. 17z had rain..trending 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, luckyamaha said: You realize it's the crap CFS and has barely any weight Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk You serious, Clark? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: That's part of the reason I've been a little edgy...we most certainly are due. I mean 3 consecutive below average years has happened before, but...the longer ya go, the harder it is too stay logical when the season comes, lol yea, i literally forgot about 16/17 being pretty bad for snow lol. last winter was also weak sauce. it's certainly possible to have 3 subpar winters in a row, but we're generally a legit precip town. whether we're a "cold enough to snow" town is debatable. i lean towards fringe snowtown, but it's a roll of the dice and i would venture to guess we get at least as much rain as we do snow in the winter. add all that up and it makes sense why we're hit/miss, 50/50 usually when it comes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 We will probably get a flurry or a shower on Xmas eve, then watch NC get another snowstorm on NYE. I'm not worried though. I never worry. Mid Jan onward will rock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Gefs now showing the strat split. This event seems to be legit. Haven't seen anything like this (this early) since 2009. The -nao signal is getting pretty strong too. Being so early in the year and the fact that strong blocking events on average last 45 days or so... there really is a lot to look forward to for the time being. As lead times start shortening over the next week we're likely going to see fantasy threats pop up regularly on ops. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Gefs now showing the strat split. This event seems to be legit. Haven't seen anything like this (this early) since 2009. The -nao signal is getting pretty strong too. Being so early in the year and the fact that strong blocking events on average last 45 days or so... there really is a lot to look forward to for the time being. As lead times start shortening over the next week we're likely going to see fantasy threats pop up regularly on ops. PV destruction, daughter vortices and a potential -NAO. Only a matter of time before we see op runs advertising a KU. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I've been meaning to ask...what is a KU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, psurulz said: I've been meaning to ask...what is a KU? Kocin Ucellini...The Godfather’s of east coast winter storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 8 minutes ago, psurulz said: I've been meaning to ask...what is a KU? The reason we’re here 10 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 If you ever see a winter storm forecast discussion on NCEP and it says Kocin at the bottom it’s going down for real 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The reason we’re here Yea, we're here for the elusive KU but we normally just get a bunch of FUs instead 1 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we're here for the elusive KU but we normally just get a bunch of FUs instead Sprinkled with some PUs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Hearing Paul Kocin's raspy voice on The Weather Channel is a memory engrained in me from when I was a kid. I miss seeing him. When you saw him on TV, you knew it was going down. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Hearing Paul Kocin's raspy voice on The Weather Channel is a memory engrained in me from when I was a kid. I miss seeing him. When you saw him on TV, you knew it was going down. Hey gang - don't forget the "U" in "KU" is for Louis Uccellini. Remember when TWC started in 82 - I was a sophomore in college and focused on becoming a Pro Met. Spent a night shift at the NWS office at Dayton Airport and that nixed the idea. Became a mere mortal engineer instead. Remember Kocin in the later years of TWC - think he started in the late 90's when TWC was trying to figure out what it wanted to be. Mods - sorry for the banter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 It's like groundhog day with this look...let's hope we can keep this going when we have some cold air to work with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 19 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Hearing Paul Kocin's raspy voice on The Weather Channel is a memory engrained in me from when I was a kid. I miss seeing him. When you saw him on TV, you knew it was going down. He used to go pretty in depth with analysis. Def a few steps above an average viewer's knowledge base. I loved it of course. Out of all the people on twc over the years my favorite will always be Dave Schwartz. That dude had the strangest sense of humor and it was awesome. Cracked me up. Kinda hit me a little hard when he passed away. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He used to go pretty in depth with analysis. Def a few steps above an average viewer's knowledge base. I loved it of course. Out of all the people on twc over the years my favorite will always be Dave Schwartz. That dude had the strangest sense of humor and it was awesome. Cracked me up. Kinda hit me a little hard when he passed away. He was an inspiration to many, and his battle with cancer was a tough one, yet he was never negative, always positive. Remember his line, hello friends ........ He, was really a weather geek, like all of us. His passion for weather I will always remember, Dave and Mark Mancuso were my all time favorites. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 54 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: He used to go pretty in depth with analysis. Def a few steps above an average viewer's knowledge base. I loved it of course. Out of all the people on twc over the years my favorite will always be Dave Schwartz. That dude had the strangest sense of humor and it was awesome. Cracked me up. Kinda hit me a little hard when he passed away. I remember Schwartz for calling out weather conditions in some of the most obscure areas in the country. "Hello friends in Chengwatana, Minnesota where we hit a balmy minus 15 farenheit today for our high temperature" lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I much preferred winter weather but every time John Hope was on for tropical, I would geek out. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 hours ago, 87storms said: i should have looked at this first... https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/dcasnow.pdf we're due. What surprises me is the number of times we've had traces in June.... Anyone remember those? Maybe it was hail counted as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, peribonca said: What surprises me is the number of times we've had traces in June.... Anyone remember those? Maybe it was hail counted as snow? Yeah that's what I wanna know, lol (ain't like we any "years without a summer" in the late 19th or 20th century! Man...can you imagine what that was like back in the early 19th century (around 1815-16) though? Like, snow in June? Lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 23 hours ago, mattie g said: Thanks, Chuck. welcome, up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Haven’t read thru but seen it discussed about temps and huge snows. What were the temps for top 10 biggest DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 7 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Pd 2 was pretty exhilarating snowing at 9-11 degrees all day . 96 ' also a cold one at 14-17 for much of the storm. I don't mind it at all . Hard to beat giant pillows at 33 degrees though I must say . 12 degrees and snowing like crazy at 1pm with zero sun effect is very special 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 GEFS continues to key in on the threat around the 1st. Would be a great way to start out the new year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: GEFS continues to key in on the threat around the 1st. Would be a great way to start out the new year. Snow mean shows, nearly 3.5" for DCA increasing to points NW 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Snow mean shows, nearly 3.5" for DCA increasing to points NW Is that for the day 10 to 15 period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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