Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh I know all too well that randomness can screw up a great setup--just some years have better "luck"...and unfortunately, ya can't forecast that! Our area is a numbers game. Our climo is so-so in general so we need more chances than folks north of us. We typically need 3-4 legit chances for each event that delivers. So far we've only had 2 legit chances but we did score on the first one. My definition of a legit chance is one that shows promise at d5-6. Anything further out in time than 6 days is a fantasy. I personally don't get invested in any one threat until we cross 120 hours out and never really feel confident until we get inside of 72 hours. Getting mad at a fantasy storm that goes poof outside of 6 days is bad practice in these parts. If you look on the bright side, there's practically no chance we get anything for more than 10 days. Enjoy the holiday undistracted and without emotion with winter wx. Things are looking about as good as they can for January turning favorable. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Anyway.. this is a Stratosphere warming signal in -AO, why I think the "warm by a long shot storm" could trend colder. Give us a little inorganic blizzard lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 And the fantasy land storms begin...FV3 is straight porn for New Years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: And the fantasy land storms begin...FV3 is straight porn for New Years. And we thought we were punting Dec...that would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: And the fantasy land storms begin...FV3 is straight porn for New Years. Since you brought this up...I'd been hesitating on posting it because we're in the realm of fantasy at 2 weeks out...but....here is the FV3. In two weeks we'll all look back at this post and say "if only that could have been": 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 If NC can lock in a storm 1 week out, we can lock in a storm 2 weeks out 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Since you brought this up...I'd been hesitating on posting it because we're in the realm of fantasy at 2 weeks out...but....here is the FV3. In two weeks we'll all look back at this post and say "if only that could have been": Might have to drink a few more glasses of champagne if that rang true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Might have to drink a few more glasses of champagne if that rang true. I'd drink a few more bottles if that happened lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Happy happy delivers. Everyone leave a nice tip please. @Bob Chill really nice snow mean on the weeklies. It's hard to get a much over climo look on the mean. Take a look at the last 10 days of the euro control on the weeklies. Especially the last 48 hours. You might want to be alone when you do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: Since you brought this up...I'd been hesitating on posting it because we're in the realm of fantasy at 2 weeks out...but....here is the FV3. In two weeks we'll all look back at this post and say "if only that could have been": Ain't no way...lol I'd almost say impossible! On New Years?! Nah...Now after the 15th? Sure, why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 I did like the look of the upper levels and temps after the 15th better on the weeklies - but maybe we can squeak one out first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Random Chaos said: I did like the look of the upper levels and temps after the 15th better on the weeklies - but maybe we can squeak one out first If we got that one on NYE don’t think anyone would mind waiting couple weeks. We are patient and practical weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Fv3 is pure weenie porn. Not gonna happen but fun to look at. This is one of the craziest phases you will ever see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Many many innocent puppies have died a cruel death at 18z. 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Vorticity map to go along with this panel Eye spy a pineapple connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Many many innocent puppies have died a cruel death at 18z. Eye spy a pineapple connection. I spy a Dragon head just below Alaska! BANTER! I know! Sorry! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Vorticity map to go along with this panel I've actually never seen the pink intensity colors for snow over us on TT. Fun to look at and imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Total snow ( kuchera) Now we have dead bunnies too. Fml 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Total snow ( kuchera) Enjoy!! That will be in NC by then! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I spy a Dragon head just below Alaska! BANTER! I know! Sorry! If this happens it will forever be the dragon storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 According to the fantasy run, temps also fall to the single digits the following night, with highs in the 20s for the next few days afterwards. It sure would make for a great period of deep winter to start 2019. It's nice to fantasize. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Pretty sure a low that close to us screams rain for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, jewell2188 said: Pretty sure a low that close to us screams rain for DC. Not if it was truly the fully phased monster that run shows. Would be extremely tightly wound. Heights are crashing over us. Great h5 pass. 1993 tracked up well inside the coast yet places not that far west of 95 stayed mostly snow. We aren't used to that at this latitude but it's more common to our north. But this is all just for fun. It's beyond crazy fantasy range. If a storm like that ended up within 250 miles of where this run shows it that would still be an amazing achievement for the Fv3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Come on...come on now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Come on...come on now. When it's all u got...it's all u got. We should be happy it's showing up only 15 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not if it was truly the fully phased monster that run shows. Would be extremely tightly wound. Heights are crashing over us. Great h5 pass. 1993 tracked up well inside the coast yet places not that far west of 95 stayed mostly snow. We aren't used to that at this latitude but it's more common to our north. But this is all just for fun. It's beyond crazy fantasy range. If a storm like that ended up within 250 miles of where this run shows it that would still be an amazing achievement for the Fv3. I’ll be in Canaan for New Years. So i can handle an inside track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 10 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: I’ll be in Canaan for New Years. So i can handle an inside track! Just so long as it isn't a cutter. Hope you enjoy and hope it snows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Oh wow, weeklies look amazing and the good pattern sets in week 3 and never leaves. Strongest -nao signal I've ever seen on the weeklies. I'll post a few images shortly. Congrats, NC. Lol. I'm drunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 4 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's plenty good well before this panel but the neg nao is literally on fire going into Feb. If global ens start looking like the week 3 progression then it's a pretty good sign and not far away... That might be the best looking block I've ever seen on an ensemble map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Total snow ( kuchera) Enjoy!! Chase to Harrisburg? 15 inches less than Harrisburg? Pass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, Fozz said: That might be the best looking block I've ever seen on an ensemble map. I wonder if there is a panel where the east coast US is the lowest anomaly of the whole NOrthern Hemisphere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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