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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter

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15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Chris- any early predictions for this summer?  Can we avoid that infamous S-SE flow and have more of a classic summer with westerly winds?

 

1983 was interesting because it had the high heat AND the high humidity and record rainfall!  What was going on that year to cause such extremes?

The current SST pattern looks closer to 2015-2018  than 2010. But it will be interesting to see if we can get some more westerly flow this year and a shot at a JFK 100. You can see big difference in wind direction between last July and 2010. SSE last July vs more W in 2010.

 

9DCD77E2-F86C-4FE9-8250-4A753541F462.png.f6915cd1183df1fa93af2dca75d701ed.png

0A020195-6480-4047-95BC-60F5B689F18F.png.b26bd99e4e038e7c00c4ae543e4a18ed.png

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the first 100 degree day I remember was in 1957...1955 had a few but I was to young to remember...NYC saw 100 degree days in 1949, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1957...1966 is my favorite hot summer...I was 17 and it was a very good year weather wise...maybe if there is a brush fire around the Central Park observation plot you might get one there...

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13 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

From a pure heat perspective Death Valley has the Persian Gulf beat, but from a heat index perspective...it's really incredible (and quite unbearable) over there.

They get more 120+ temp days for sure, but the old 1913 record at Death Valley of 134 degrees has a 50% likelihood of being wrong according to climatologists.  If it's wrong the next highest temp is 129 degrees, also at Death Valley, but they'd be in a tie with a few locations in the middle and near east.

The odd thing is so many locations have tied at 129 degrees, and no one has yet crossed the 130 degree "barrier."

The amazing heat indices in the Middle East are probably why they have the records for the highest overnight temp and the highest temp at which rain has fallen.  There are reports of rain falling that turned to steam as soon as it hit the ground!

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The current SST pattern looks closer to 2015-2018  than 2010. But it will be interesting to see if we can get some more westerly flow this year and a shot at a JFK 100. You can see big difference in wind direction between last July and 2010. SSE last July vs more W in 2010.

 

9DCD77E2-F86C-4FE9-8250-4A753541F462.png.f6915cd1183df1fa93af2dca75d701ed.png

0A020195-6480-4047-95BC-60F5B689F18F.png.b26bd99e4e038e7c00c4ae543e4a18ed.png

Thanks Chris, what's been the cause for the increase in more onshore flow the last few years?  Is it linked to the switch to a +NAO the last few years?

 

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37 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the first 100 degree day I remember was in 1957...1955 had a few but I was to young to remember...NYC saw 100 degree days in 1949, 1952, 1953, 1954, 1955, 1957...1966 is my favorite hot summer...I was 17 and it was a very good year weather wise...maybe if there is a brush fire around the Central Park observation plot you might get one there...

1966 must have been nice, high heat with low humidity and a great winter followed that!

 

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2014 and 2015 were the only 2 summers during the 2010’s not to reach 100 degrees around the area.

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ

2010 106 4
2011 107 3
2012 103 2
2013 102 0
2014 95 0
2015 98 0
2016 100 0
2017 98 0
2018 101 0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 

2010 103 0
2011 108 0
2012 104 0
2013 101 0
2014 96 0
2015 98 0
2016 99 0
2017 99 0
2018 98 0

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY -

2010 103 0
2011 104 0
2012 101 0
2013 100 0
2014 93 0
2015 95 0
2016 99 0
2017 101 0
2018 98 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

2014 and 2015 were the only 2 summers during the 2010’s not to reach 100 degrees around the area.

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ

2010 106 4
2011 107 3
2012 103 2
2013 102 0
2014 95 0
2015 98 0
2016 100 0
2017 98 0
2018 101 0

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ 

2010 103 0
2011 108 0
2012 104 0
2013 101 0
2014 96 0
2015 98 0
2016 99 0
2017 99 0
2018 98 0

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY -

2010 103 0
2011 104 0
2012 101 0
2013 100 0
2014 93 0
2015 95 0
2016 99 0
2017 101 0
2018 98 0

 

 

 

 

 

 

Indeed but neither reached 100 at NYC or JFK.

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks Chris, what's been the cause for the increase in more onshore flow the last few years?  Is it linked to the switch to a +NAO the last few years?

 

It’s part of this new warming subtropical Atlantic pattern that has emerged in recent years. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-017-11046-x

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

hmmm this is interesting- does this mean more tropical activity is in our future or will the change to a -AMO counter that?

 

Any drop in the AMO may get muted by all the warm water off the East Coast. So we could continue to see more tropical activity even if the official AMO index goes more neutral or even negative. Just look at what a high impact season we had last year with Florence and Michael and a more neutral AMO than 2017.

 

2CEDFD41-B32A-4FF7-92BD-3CE7A5DF461A.thumb.png.9d0ef8a78d14545e1775ff93b817e0de.png

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

1966 must have been nice, high heat with low humidity and a great winter followed that!

 

1966 had three heat waves that reached 100 degrees   1955 has the most 95 degrees or higher days...

Extreme heat days 95 or higher.....
16 in 1955
13 in 1988
12 in 1953
12 in 1993
12 in 1999
12 in 2002
10 in 1944
10 in 1980
9.. in 2005
9.. in 1983
9.. in 1966
8.. in 1963
8.. in 1991
8.. in 2010

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2 hours ago, uncle W said:

1966 had three heat waves that reached 100 degrees   1955 has the most 95 degrees or higher days...

Extreme heat days 95 or higher.....
16 in 1955
13 in 1988
12 in 1953
12 in 1993
12 in 1999
12 in 2002
10 in 1944
10 in 1980
9.. in 2005
9.. in 1983
9.. in 1966
8.. in 1963
8.. in 1991
8.. in 2010

I was born in September 1966 and my mom used to tell me how unpleasant it was to be pregnant and living in an apartment building in Brooklyn with no AC that summer.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Any drop in the AMO may get muted by all the warm water off the East Coast. So we could continue to see more tropical activity even if the official AMO index goes more neutral or even negative. Just look at what a high impact season we had last year with Florence and Michael and a more neutral AMO than 2017.

 

2CEDFD41-B32A-4FF7-92BD-3CE7A5DF461A.thumb.png.9d0ef8a78d14545e1775ff93b817e0de.png

looks like a gulf stream slowdown to me

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1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

looks like a gulf stream slowdown to me

Yeah, this pattern emerged shortly  after the historic summer 2012 Arctic sea ice and Greenland melt.

 

 

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I was born in September 1966 and my mom used to tell me how unpleasant it was to be pregnant and living in an apartment building in Brooklyn with no AC that summer.

I remember coming home from upstate NY and some highways buckled in the heat on July 4th...we had no ac at home...I would put my face right next to a fan to dry off...

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4 hours ago, uncle W said:

1966 had three heat waves that reached 100 degrees   1955 has the most 95 degrees or higher days...

Extreme heat days 95 or higher.....
16 in 1955
13 in 1988
12 in 1953
12 in 1993
12 in 1999
12 in 2002
10 in 1944
10 in 1980
9.. in 2005
9.. in 1983
9.. in 1966
8.. in 1963
8.. in 1991
8.. in 2010

wow I wonder if JFK has summer records going back to 1955, their record is 11 95+ days in 2010.  NYC had that overgrown bush problem by then

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I think there are six years that had at least two separate 100 degree heat waves...

1944...

1949...

1953...

1954...

1955...

1966...

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Some of you who go back far enough may remember Paul Kocin throwing this photo up on a slide during a talk at one of the old EUSWx conferences.  A bunch of the SNE and MA folks might remember it too.  I was the startled guy in the audience who exclaimed "that's my mom".  That's because it is my mom (and my older cousin, long gone).   Turns out Paul and I were neighbors growing up.

We lost mom last week.  Seemed right to mention it here. 

Syosset-February1961-2.jpg

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7 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Some of you who go back far enough may remember Paul Kocin throwing this photo up on a slide during a talk at one of the old EUSWx conferences.  A bunch of the SNE and MA folks might remember it too.  I was the startled guy in the audience who exclaimed "that's my mom".  That's because it is my mom (and my older cousin, long gone).   Turns out Paul and I were neighbors growing up.

We lost mom last week.  Seemed right to mention it here. 

Syosset-February1961-2.jpg

Sorry for your loss. I go back far enough to when the conference started but was never able to make it to one, nice story. 

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9 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Some of you who go back far enough may remember Paul Kocin throwing this photo up on a slide during a talk at one of the old EUSWx conferences.  A bunch of the SNE and MA folks might remember it too.  I was the startled guy in the audience who exclaimed "that's my mom".  That's because it is my mom (and my older cousin, long gone).   Turns out Paul and I were neighbors growing up.

We lost mom last week.  Seemed right to mention it here. 

Syosset-February1961-2.jpg

So sorry to hear that Ed :( It's amazing that you were neighbors with Kocin and you both grew up with a fascination with weather, it must be contagious ;-)

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12 hours ago, uncle W said:

I think there are six years that had at least two separate 100 degree heat waves...

1944...

1949...

1953...

1954...

1955...

1966...

Wow that stretch from 1953-55 must have been something, makes 2010-13 pale by comparison!

Interesting that it hasn't happened since 1966, but the 11 year pattern of 1944, 1955, 1966 continues on with bake off summers......

Next one up is 2021 ;-)

 

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On 3/12/2019 at 11:30 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Some of you who go back far enough may remember Paul Kocin throwing this photo up on a slide during a talk at one of the old EUSWx conferences.  A bunch of the SNE and MA folks might remember it too.  I was the startled guy in the audience who exclaimed "that's my mom".  That's because it is my mom (and my older cousin, long gone).   Turns out Paul and I were neighbors growing up.

We lost mom last week.  Seemed right to mention it here.

My condolences Ed. Echoing the others, that's a great photo and story to tell.

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On 3/12/2019 at 11:30 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Some of you who go back far enough may remember Paul Kocin throwing this photo up on a slide during a talk at one of the old EUSWx conferences.  A bunch of the SNE and MA folks might remember it too.  I was the startled guy in the audience who exclaimed "that's my mom".  That's because it is my mom (and my older cousin, long gone).   Turns out Paul and I were neighbors growing up.

We lost mom last week.  Seemed right to mention it here. 

Syosset-February1961-2.jpg

I think I've seen this before although I only went to one conference. Was that 2/78? How old was she?

So sorry for your loss....

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I am really glad we that winter is basically behind us now. It didn't live up to expectations and we hope for much better next winter. Looking forward to hopefully getting some good severe/heavy rain events as we head into the spring and summer. The next 10 days look rather quiet so enjoy it.

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On 3/12/2019 at 11:30 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Some of you who go back far enough may remember Paul Kocin throwing this photo up on a slide during a talk at one of the old EUSWx conferences.  A bunch of the SNE and MA folks might remember it too.  I was the startled guy in the audience who exclaimed "that's my mom".  That's because it is my mom (and my older cousin, long gone).   Turns out Paul and I were neighbors growing up.

We lost mom last week.  Seemed right to mention it here. 

Syosset-February1961-2.jpg

I am sorry to read of your mom’s passing. You have my fullest condolences.

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On 3/12/2019 at 11:30 PM, NorthShoreWx said:

Some of you who go back far enough may remember Paul Kocin throwing this photo up on a slide during a talk at one of the old EUSWx conferences.  A bunch of the SNE and MA folks might remember it too.  I was the startled guy in the audience who exclaimed "that's my mom".  That's because it is my mom (and my older cousin, long gone).   Turns out Paul and I were neighbors growing up.

We lost mom last week.  Seemed right to mention it here. 

Syosset-February1961-2.jpg

My condolences to your family and yourself.

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