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Meteorological Winter 2018 Banter


doncat
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2 hours ago, Animal said:

Calling this winter a bust.

all the calls for a blockbuster winter were wrong.

 

I agree because I don't recall anyone that published a 2018 -2019 winter forecast for NYC predicting that both December and January would end up with above normal temps and less then a total inch of snow - which has a good chance of verifying unless we get a surprise storm before the 1st. At this point I would say there is only a 50/50 chance February and March will have above normal snowfall - the teleconnections are giving no indication one way or the other so far...……..

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30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I agree because I don't recall anyone that published a 2018 -2019 winter forecast for NYC predicting that both December and January would end up with above normal temps and less then a total inch of snow - which has a good chance of verifying unless we get a surprise storm before the 1st. At this point I would say there is only a 50/50 chance February and March will have above normal snowfall - the teleconnections are giving no indication one way or the other so far...……..

And it happens, you know? It seems like every winter calls for cold and snowy, since that's what drives clicks and views. Some years, it's just going to be wrong. I wonder if there's a recency bias at play as well; essentially, if we don't get snow for the remainder of the winter, I wonder if next winter's long-term guidance will be "equal chances" or some other pedantic proclamation. 

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32 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I agree because I don't recall anyone that published a 2018 -2019 winter forecast for NYC predicting that both December and January would end up with above normal temps and less then a total inch of snow - which has a good chance of verifying unless we get a surprise storm before the 1st. At this point I would say there is only a 50/50 chance February and March will have above normal snowfall - the teleconnections are giving no indication one way or the other so far...……..

That’s part of the disappointment thins year.  The consensus was for a decent winter and here we are 2/3 of the way through met winter with close to nothing.

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"Snow (It's just a week away)"

Sung to the tune of Gimme Shelter by the Rolling Stones

MJO is changing
Phase 8 is on the way
And now here's the blocking
All the models say

Snow, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away
Cold, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away

Ooh, see hour 240
On the Euro today
970 right at benchmark

This pattern's gonna save the day


Snow, weenie, it's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away
Cold, weenie, it's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away

Snow, cold!
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
Snow, cold!
It's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away
Snow, cold!
It's gonna come some day
It's gotta come some day

Oh, this rain is threat'ning
My sanity today
I-If we hit 60
Oh yeah, I'm gonna melt away


Snow, children, it's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away

I tell you spring, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
Week away, week away...

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Just now, Gravity Wave said:

"Snow (It's just a week away)"

Sung to the tune of Gimme Shelter by the Rolling Stones

MJO is changing
Phase 8 is on the way
And now here's the blocking
All the models say

Snow, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away
Cold, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away

Ooh, see hour 240
On the Euro today
970 right at benchmark

 

This pattern's gonna save the day


Snow, weenie, it's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away
Cold, weenie, it's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away

Snow, cold!
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
Snow, cold!
It's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away
Snow, cold!
It's gonna come some day
It's gotta come some day

Oh, this rain is threat'ning
My sanity today
I-If we hit 60
Oh yeah, I'm gonna melt away


Snow, children, it's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away

I tell you spring, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
Week away, week away...

That’s terrific. 

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5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

"Snow (It's just a week away)"

Sung to the tune of Gimme Shelter by the Rolling Stones

MJO is changing
Phase 8 is on the way
And now here's the blocking
All the models say

Snow, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away
Cold, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away

Ooh, see hour 240
On the Euro today
970 right at benchmark

This pattern's gonna save the day


Snow, weenie, it's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away
Cold, weenie, it's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away

Snow, cold!
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
Snow, cold!
It's just two weeks away
It's just two weeks away
Snow, cold!
It's gonna come some day
It's gotta come some day

Oh, this rain is threat'ning
My sanity today
I-If we hit 60
Oh yeah, I'm gonna melt away


Snow, children, it's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away
It's just a month away

I tell you spring, weenie, it's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
It's just a week away
Week away, week away...

Did you use quotes from Snow88 ? I can hear him singing that right now...…….:violin:

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Who cares about March snow? I mean seriously, in the city and south of White Plains it just melts so fast that it really is just a nuisance. We've literally had years where a foot of snow can disappear in just a few days. This is the prime of winter and I almost need a freaking jet ski to cross Fordham Road! It is literally a swamp out there. I remember in the fall people being worried that once the 'cold' pattern set it that maybe we would switch to a dry pattern. Well unfortunately even when the cold pattern set up, it still is raining. I think this winter may actually be more frustrating than 11-12 merely because when it is actually dry it is too cold to actually do things outside. Then when it is warm, like today, it is pouring rain. I am almost to the point of just preferring frigid and dry just so we can get rid of some moisture!

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40 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

What was Jan 5 - 11  ? 

It was there but at low amplitude before crossing back over to its favorite position this winter 4-5.  Would have been nice to see it run at stronger amplitude through 8-1-2.  Today’s storm may not have been a 55 degree cutter...

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7 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Poor and quite premature call. 6 weeks of temps in the 50's last year then 4+ feet of snow in March or have you forgotten. 

As has been pointed out by others, not everyone had 4 feet of snow in March last year. I believe I had two events that actually produced snow, one was 4 inches when areas to the north had double digits, and the other was 10-11 inches. So around 14 for the month, not bad, but far from epic. We had a 3-5 event in April. In any case, lots of snow and big storms just aren't typical of March in the immediate metro. Checking in daily, still see nothing happening.

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7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

As has been pointed out by others, not everyone had 4 feet of snow in March last year. I believe I had two events that actually produced snow, one was 4 inches when areas to the north had double digits, and the other was 10-11 inches. So around 14 for the month, not bad, but far from epic. We had a 3-5 event in April. In any case, lots of snow and big storms just aren't typical of March in the immediate metro. Checking in daily, still see nothing happening.

Animal did and he is who I was responding to.

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6 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Who cares about March snow? I mean seriously, in the city and south of White Plains it just melts so fast that it really is just a nuisance. We've literally had years where a foot of snow can disappear in just a few days. This is the prime of winter and I almost need a freaking jet ski to cross Fordham Road! It is literally a swamp out there. I remember in the fall people being worried that once the 'cold' pattern set it that maybe we would switch to a dry pattern. Well unfortunately even when the cold pattern set up, it still is raining. I think this winter may actually be more frustrating than 11-12 merely because when it is actually dry it is too cold to actually do things outside. Then when it is warm, like today, it is pouring rain. I am almost to the point of just preferring frigid and dry just so we can get rid of some moisture!

Wait... I thought the urban contingent hated snow retention because it just turns black and ugly after a half hour? That's always been the narrative.

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20 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Wait... I thought the urban contingent hated snow retention because it just turns black and ugly after a half hour? That's always been the narrative.

That’s why we have to refresh it every couple of days ;-). But Central Park is nice covered in snow. But for the most of Manhattan snow just gets gross and turns crosswalks into deep water diving pools. 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Caribou, Maine is the big 2010’s extreme snowfall winter for January.

https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-01-24-caribou-maine-all-time-snowiest-month-january-2019

 

I love ME, am looking at lake houses there, but seriously, it isn't a place to be in winter, especially up there. That said, even parts of ME have had trouble getting enough snow in the 80's and 90's, according to my BIL, a lifer. He's complaining about snow this year though, again. Dude hates the snow. Hates NYC and NJ more, where he worked for many years. Tried FL, too hot. Can't make the guy happy.

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27 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I love ME, am looking at lake houses there, but seriously, it isn't a place to be in winter, especially up there. That said, even parts of ME have had trouble getting enough snow in the 80's and 90's, according to my BIL, a lifer. He's complaining about snow this year though, again. Dude hates the snow. Hates NYC and NJ more, where he worked for many years. Tried FL, too hot. Can't make the guy happy.

That’s one of the few parts of the country to set an all-time state low temperature in the last 10 years. I can’t even imagine what -50 feels like.

2009

AROOSTOOK COUNTY...
   BIG BLACK RIVER        -50   731 AM  1/16 USGS BBRM1
   NINEMILE BRIDGE        -48   841 AM  1/16 USGS NINM1
   ALLAGASH               -47   722 AM  1/16 COOP ALGM1
   DICKEY                 -45   833 AM  1/16 USGS DICM1
   LILLE                  -45   717 AM  1/16 AR034
   MASARDIS               -45   840 AM  1/16 USGS MASM1
   CLAYTON LAKE           -44   832 AM  1/16 COOP CLTM1
   GRAND ISLE             -44   722 AM  1/16 SPOTTER
   OXBOW                  -43   842 AM  1/16 COOP OXBM1
   FORT KENT MILLS        -41   853 AM  1/16 AR054
   STOCKHOLM              -41   717 AM  1/16 SPOTTER
   VAN BUREN              -41   845 AM  1/16 COOP VANM1
   EAGLE LAKE             -40   902 AM  1/16 COOP EGLM1
   FORT KENT              -40   851 AM  1/16 COOP FISM1
   FOX BROOK              -40   835 AM  1/16 COOP FOXM1
   PRESQUE ISLE           -39   758 AM  1/16 AWOS KPQI
   LIMESTONE              -38   917 AM  1/16 COOP LIZM1
   CARIBOU WFO            -37   718 AM  1/16 ASOS KCAR
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