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December 9/10 Storm

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Speaking of the GEFS... the mean (sorry if this was posted already) is godawful. This needs to turn around ASAP

 

 

They’ve been bouncing around like a fish out of water...6”, 2”, 1”, 7”, 0”, 2”, 1” and so on.  The ensembles seem less useful this go around for some reason.

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9 minutes ago, nj2va said:

It’s going to come down to the strength of that confluence.  If models are overdoing it or it ends up further north by 50-100 miles, then its game on around here.  That stuff could easily change within 78 hours, let alone 100-120 hours out.

Exactly. Especially since the system is still a little over 24 hours from even coming onshore on the west coast. 

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

They’ve been bouncing around like a fish out of water...6”, 2”, 1”, 7”, 0”, 2”, 1” and so on.  The ensembles seem less useful this go around for some reason.

18z is unanimous for the first time. Completely lasered in on the op. I don't think the ens have been bad with this event. They have favored the nc/sva hit for many runs. The spread kept us hooked because there were enough good ones in the mix but overall the southern solution was always the majority. 

I do think it's still possible for a shift north but the idea is fading every six hours now unfortunately. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

18z is unanimous for the first time. Completely lasered in on the op. I don't think the ens have been bad with this event. They have favored the nc/sva hit for many runs. The spread kept us hooked because there were enough good ones in the mix but overall the southern solution was always the majority. 

I do think it's still possible for a shift north but the idea is fading every six hours now unfortunately. 

Oh they (OP and ENS) have favored SW VA/W NC for days but they’ve been bouncing around up here (similar to the OPs)...maybe that’s due to DC/NVA being on the northern fringe so any jog will have a significant impact here?  I don’t remember an event where the snowfall means jumped from run to run like it has with this event.  Though honestly, I don’t have a laser precise memory like some here where they remember every event like clockwork.  

We’re on life support but I still think this comes north some.  

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Gefs isnt all negative.  At least the SW is a smidge stronger and its seen at the surface.  Has a 1009 low near Louisiana vs 1011 at 12z . I know it's not much but maybe an indicator for the 0z suite. Possible mini me bump north 

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If we all lived in ROA we would highly impressed with model consistency.  Sure there have been a few models here and there that spit out hope in the past 48 hours but this is a big storm and models have done a pretty good job.  We are about out of luck, imo.  I understand that weather can do what it wants and i'll continue to watch every run with hopes for a hail mary but the writing is on the wall....

If 0z gives no obvious shift in the features needed....I'm out....until Friday happy hour!

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Mentioned this earlier about the role of the PV. Looking at this view you can certainly see how it crushes the storm from making a significant move North.

 

 

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17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Oh they (OP and ENS) have favored SW VA/W NC for days but they’ve been bouncing around up here (similar to the OPs)...maybe that’s due to DC/NVA being on the northern fringe so any jog will have a significant impact here?  I don’t remember an event where the snowfall means jumped from run to run like it has with this event.

The GEFS means can bounce around quite a bit due to their underdispersion.  We saw it several times last year too.  I think there's supposed to be a fix for this in the FV3 ensemble, but that isn't expected to be out until early 2020.  Hopefully by this time next season we'll all be complaining about the new para-GEFS. 

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Welp, its the NAM but through 63, the sw ss is stronger resulting in heigher heights in front.  Confluence in NE is north of 18z.  We’ve got nothing to lose so we might as well analyze the NAM.  

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Welp, its the NAM but through 63, the sw ss is stronger resulting in heigher heights in front.  Confluence in NE is north of 18z.  We’ve got nothing to lose so we might as well analyze the NAM.  

There is a closed h5 low at 00z 63 that was open at 18z 69 FWIW in the Texas panhandle 

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this is not necessarily scientific but i was in altoona, pa for the march storm and for the november storm and both times models had em on the northern fringe - forecasts 24 hours out were for a couple inches of snow - in both cases they ended up getting 10”+.  forecast confidence for the fringe areas of storms is mighty low - its probably the most difficult area for forecasters with any storm.

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The NAM is closed at 500 over TX at hour 57. But there is a brick wall just waiting for it over central PA. 

You’re telling me.  By 75, its pressing down a touch more than 18z.

ETA:  it’s like the giant middle finger stop sign from the NS.  

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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Small but positive changes at h5 through 63. Spoke too soon .Confluence reared its ugliness again at 75

It looked better early but the wheels fell off the train towards the end.  The confluence does not want to give up.

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9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Small but positive changes at h5 through 63

I dunno that looks like a brick wall still in its way. Look at the h5 from previous stj storms. We need that confluence at least 100 miles north of where it is. And that is trending south not north. 

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00z runs are going to be off the chains ugly tonight. Icon looks like its going to move south the 200 miles it went North with at 18z

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I think there is a trend now. It's just not the trend we wanted. I still think this will do the typical adjustment north the last 48 hours. But it might not matter now. 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I dunno that looks like a brick wall still in its way. Look at the h5 from previous stj storms. We need that confluence at least 100 miles north of where it is. And that is trending south not north. 

Up to 63 confluence looked a bit better but 75 the hammer dropped

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