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December 9/10 Storm


stormtracker
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14 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Pulling out all the stops since we’ve got nothing to lose.  15z SREFs also bumped north.  0.1” up to M/D line, 0.25” north of DC, 0.5” just south of FFX County.  9z had 0.1” south of DC.

FWIW, the JMA model also shifted the heavy precip shield north...looks significant

Dusting off these models lol - anyone got the latest Korean model? 

jma_apcpn_us_fh96_trend.gif

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Heights are higher so far on the NAM should be coming north again through 12. At 15 nice weaknes forming and confluence is breaking down sooner again. High is another MB lower then 12z and the Hudson bay storm is faster and deeper Should be a good result 

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RGEM ensemble basically tightened up the gradient from yesterday's 12z run, with a bump up in the number of members giving Richmond at least 0.1" qpf as snow.  After today's 12z runs, it doesn't look like such an outlier any more.

jNXK67H.png

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4 minutes ago, Beachin said:

Heights are higher so far on the NAM should be coming north again through 12. At 15 nice weaknes forming and confluence is breaking down sooner again. High is another MB lower then 12z and the Hudson bay storm is faster and deeper Should be a good result 

Good obs on that! Confluence does look a little weaker up in Maine. LP is ever so slightly north at 15. 

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Good obs on that! Confluence does look a little weaker up in Maine. LP is ever so slightly north at 15. 

Se Ridge is stronger to along with a deeper ridge in the west. 500mb looks great definitely gonna be north and probably stronger

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Just as an FYI for us... AKQ has gone WSWatch for the counties bordering the LWX southern zones (aka around EZF)

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

VAZ048-061-062-068-069-509>516-090400-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.181209T1200Z-181210T0900Z/
Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham,
Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills,
Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Earls, Mannboro,
Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville,
Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams,
Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville,
Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights,
Richmond, and Sandston
250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop Sunday
  morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with rain
  at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise above
  freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Some light
  icing is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop below
  freezing.

* WHERE...Portions of central Virginia including the Richmond
  Metro.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.
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1 minute ago, yoda said:

Just as an FYI for us... AKQ has gone WSWatch for the counties bordering the LWX southern zones (aka around EZF)


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

VAZ048-061-062-068-069-509>516-090400-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.WS.A.0004.181209T1200Z-181210T0900Z/
Fluvanna-Cumberland-Goochland-Amelia-Powhatan-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-
Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Including the cities of Bybee, Central Plains, Cunningham,
Lake Monticello, Nahor, Palmyra, Troy, Angola, Guinea Mills,
Hawk, Raines Tavern, Reeds, Stoddert, Goochland, Earls, Mannboro,
Scotts Fork, Amelia Courthouse, Chula, Denaro, Jetersville,
Fine Creek Mills, Flat Rock, Goodwins Store, Subletts, Worshams,
Clayville, Genito, Louisa, Mineral, Ashland, Mechanicsville,
Bon Air, Midlothian, Chesterfield, Chester, Colonial Heights,
Richmond, and Sandston
250 PM EST Sat Dec 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Wet snow, moderate to heavy at times will develop Sunday
  morning and continue through the day. The snow may mix with rain
  at times, especially closer to I-95, as temperatures rise above
  freezing. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Some light
  icing is possible Sunday night as temperatures drop below
  freezing.

* WHERE...Portions of central Virginia including the Richmond
  Metro.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

Saw that, hoping we can get to advisory type stuff around EZF. 18z NAM looking ok so far.....

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