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December 9/10 Storm

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But the models ticked north once storm mode was removed.  If we had done this sooner then we'd get snow by now.  

 

So you all have to decide.  Snow cancelling storm mode or free for all with azzhole posters?

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I still do not see a suppressive high being displayed. There may be other factors that I am not experienced with but as far as high(s) pressing down and squashing itvor pushing it out west to east, I do not see that

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

I still do not see a suppressive high being displayed. There may be other factors that I am not experienced with but as far as high(s) pressing down and squashing itvor pushing it out west to east, I do not see that

Take a look at the H5 map over New England. 

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I still do not see a suppressive high being displayed. There may be other factors that I am not experienced with put as far as high(s) pressing down and squashing itvor pushing it out west to east, I do not see that

image.png.f613420dece4ed293b42ef95ed527e04.png

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1 minute ago, paulythegun said:

yeah i'm deeply ashamed of doing that. amateur hour. Anyway, here's the latest CRAS

cras2.png

Cras nailed north trend storm Jan 2010

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Just now, NoVaWx said:

Cras nailed north trend storm Jan 2010

The models have trended a little North at 12z.  Now we need a good happy hour to confirm/reinforce the North trend. And then 0z to bring us all the way back into the game.

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19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I still do not see a suppressive high being displayed. There may be other factors that I am not experienced with but as far as high(s) pressing down and squashing itvor pushing it out west to east, I do not see that

I think we say this every single time there is a storm missing us to the south. It will look like it is headed right for us on radar and then hit the brick wall.

It isn't even that cold here. This situation is a cruel joke.

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58 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

0z shafted Richmond though right?

No, 0.25 was south of RIC 0z so basically like 10 miles north of 0z with the precip shield though the 0.25 line was a bigger shift.  Just need about 10 more runs of that to get flurries.

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59 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

The models have trended a little North at 12z.  Now we need a good happy hour to confirm/reinforce the North trend. And then 0z to bring us all the way back into the game.

Exactly

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If you need to distract yourself from the pain (or support last-ditch weenie hopes) -- a fun read (plus interesting to note the level of uncertainty even 2-3 days out before that one):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/model-live-blog-assessing-late-week-heavy-snow-threat/?utm_term=.443e2154967e

 

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I did. It’s suppressive up there but 1025 around here is not suppressive 

WEATHER53! Long time no see! Where have you been???

I am now living in south Texas since my late Dad passed away this June.

Wow I have not seen you on this forum since Eastern!

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Very good improvement at 500s and the surface for the potential in the VA area. By hour 57 we see the low just off of Hatteras @ 994 mb vs. the 12z which had the low @ 1003 mb and running OTS at a farther south latitude.

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Very good improvement at 500s and the surface for the potential in the VA area. By hour 57 we see the low just off of Hatteras @ 994 mb vs. the 12z which had the low @ 1003 mb and running OTS at a farther south latitude.

So if we can get a strengthening low that naturally wants to gain latitude and the high pressure to weaken just a little we could find ourselves on the northern fringe. The radar hallucinations are going to be epic

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

So if we can get a strengthening low that naturally wants to gain latitude and the high pressure to weaken just a little we could find ourselves on the northern fringe. The radar hallucinations are going to be epic

There were a couple of good things seen on this run. Besides the improvements to the west with the 500's and the slower progression which gave more time and room for more strengthening we also saw the confluence relaxing a little quicker. It was a good run and a step in the right direction at least for VA. But we are talking the NAM outside of its comfort zone so I would still probably defer to the globals.

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10 minutes ago, Jebman said:

WEATHER53! Long time no see! Where have you been???

I am now living in south Texas since my late Dad passed away this June.

Wow I have not seen you on this forum since Eastern!

You have known him as Tenman Johnson the past 5 years or so. We all knew it was him....come on Jeb!!

Sorry for the banter.

If I was in Richmond I'd be feeling a lot better but would love to see some of the globals jump North as well.

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

You have known him as Tenman Johnson the past 5 years or so. We all knew it was him....come on Jeb!!

Sorry for the banter.

If I was in Richmond I'd be feeling a lot better but would love to see some of the globals jump North as well.

Worried about this ice on 3k CONUS.... Snow totals seem to be going up as well.

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