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December 9/10 Storm


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19 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I still do not see a suppressive high being displayed. There may be other factors that I am not experienced with but as far as high(s) pressing down and squashing itvor pushing it out west to east, I do not see that

I think we say this every single time there is a storm missing us to the south. It will look like it is headed right for us on radar and then hit the brick wall.

It isn't even that cold here. This situation is a cruel joke.

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If you need to distract yourself from the pain (or support last-ditch weenie hopes) -- a fun read (plus interesting to note the level of uncertainty even 2-3 days out before that one):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/19/model-live-blog-assessing-late-week-heavy-snow-threat/?utm_term=.443e2154967e

 

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

I did. It’s suppressive up there but 1025 around here is not suppressive 

WEATHER53! Long time no see! Where have you been???

I am now living in south Texas since my late Dad passed away this June.

Wow I have not seen you on this forum since Eastern!

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2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Very good improvement at 500s and the surface for the potential in the VA area. By hour 57 we see the low just off of Hatteras @ 994 mb vs. the 12z which had the low @ 1003 mb and running OTS at a farther south latitude.

So if we can get a strengthening low that naturally wants to gain latitude and the high pressure to weaken just a little we could find ourselves on the northern fringe. The radar hallucinations are going to be epic

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2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

So if we can get a strengthening low that naturally wants to gain latitude and the high pressure to weaken just a little we could find ourselves on the northern fringe. The radar hallucinations are going to be epic

There were a couple of good things seen on this run. Besides the improvements to the west with the 500's and the slower progression which gave more time and room for more strengthening we also saw the confluence relaxing a little quicker. It was a good run and a step in the right direction at least for VA. But we are talking the NAM outside of its comfort zone so I would still probably defer to the globals.

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10 minutes ago, Jebman said:

WEATHER53! Long time no see! Where have you been???

I am now living in south Texas since my late Dad passed away this June.

Wow I have not seen you on this forum since Eastern!

You have known him as Tenman Johnson the past 5 years or so. We all knew it was him....come on Jeb!!

Sorry for the banter.

If I was in Richmond I'd be feeling a lot better but would love to see some of the globals jump North as well.

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1 minute ago, Stormpc said:

You have known him as Tenman Johnson the past 5 years or so. We all knew it was him....come on Jeb!!

Sorry for the banter.

If I was in Richmond I'd be feeling a lot better but would love to see some of the globals jump North as well.

Worried about this ice on 3k CONUS.... Snow totals seem to be going up as well.

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2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

GFS looks like its following suit of bumping the northern extent of precip north.  Gets RIC in the 0.1" amounts now.  Meaningless for NVA but these small shifts will have larger impacts in the southern part of the forum.

Wait so we are considered the southern part of the forum? Because I remember several joe schmo’s the other day b*tch about how they’re sick of southern VA people posting and confusing everyone about trends etc and how we are the southeast..... :rolleyes: lollll. 

Anyhow, got to say the trends on the 18z Icon, nam and RGEM make you think what could be down here. Even the old gfs has trended ever so slightly back north with the heavier precip. 

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15 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Wait so we are considered the southern part of the forum? Because I remember several joe schmo’s the other day b*tch about how they’re sick of southern VA people posting and confusing everyone about trends etc and how we are the southeast..... :rolleyes: lollll. 

Anyhow, got to say the trends on the 18z Icon, nam and RGEM make you think what could be down here. Even the old gfs has trended ever so slightly back north with the heavier precip. 

I guess it matters where you think you live.  I read this to mean Central VA is the southern part of the forum:

image.png.12f7bbca91ffc1cab1d85952f1c735cb.png

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