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December 9/10 Storm


stormtracker
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I know most of you know this ... but as most of the recent plots show composite reflectivity

 

Keep in mind that composite reflectivity shows the maximum reflectivity in the vertical column (i.e., the extent of virga).  It should not be confused with base reflectivity, which is a truer representation of where it may snow.

 

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7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

No it doesn't.  That's a 10:1 snowfall map.  Fv3 doesn't provide the depth charts yet.

I know it is 10:1, but kuchera says expect better than that.  I wasn't aware of a rule that says we all go by depth charts.  Are the surfaces not cold enough up there?  It is 33 degrees down here right now and last night was 26, so there won't be much difference between snowfall and snow depth imo.

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

We will get ours.  I’m not worried. Well unless I’m saying this in mid March. ;)

Not all that worried, though hate wasting opportunities. More just in awe of how a storm, especially this early in the year, loaded with moisture doesn't want to climb at all. 

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not all that worried, though hate wasting opportunities. More just in awe of how a storm, especially this early in the year, loaded with moisture doesn't want to climb at all. 

Yes. I get it. I’m definitely not happy either, but if you look ahead (especially the LR thread), the look doesn’t get much better for weeks and weeks on end. We’ll probably be sick of snow by end of January. LOLz. 

 

Eta: Who I am kidding. Never can be sick of it. 

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16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Amazing watching that huge slug of moisture look like it's already hitting a brick wall across the south.

Indeed - been like that all day.  TN is barely 100 miles thick N-S.  All those reds and oranges across the middle of TN and nada just N of Nashville.  Brutal E/W cutoff along a 1300+ mile front.      

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

We are in like the 0-4 range. 

25% 0

50% 1-2

25% 3+

I mean we are just far enough south of the city we could squeeze out .25 qpf

Maybe you.  Every mile will matter and I’m about 15 from you.  But I expect some solid obs. 

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