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December 9/10 Storm


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3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

0Z RGEM is either a bit north of 18Z with the precip shield, or faster with the precip, or both. 

rgem_asnow_neus_fh42_trend.gif

You have RGEM/NAM(to an extent)/Canadian in a more northern camp. GFS last run slowly had the heavier precip creep back north but this would only be good for southern VA. Basically you have those 3 I mentioned first vs EURO/GFS/UKMET. I mean if anything I’d personally rather have the high res models in my favor. I know the precip down south has been laying down some serious qpf totals in TX so hopefully this translates up this way. Obv we know there is going to be a ridiculous cutoff zone.

Btw, RGEM track looks pretty similar to 18z, just looks like better expansion of heavier snow shield.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

You have RGEM/NAM(to an extent)/Canadian in a more northern camp. GFS last run slowly had the heavier precip creep back north but this would only be good for southern VA. Basically you have those 3 I mentioned first vs EURO/GFS/UKMET. I mean if anything I’d personally rather have the high res models in my favor. I know the precip down south has been laying down some serious qpf totals in TX so hopefully this translates up this way. Obv we know there is going to be a ridiculous cutoff zone.

Btw, RGEM track looks pretty similar to 18z, just looks like better expansion of heavier snow shield.

I agree with your analysis of the 2 main camps, but even the EURO/GFS/UKMET all moved the precip further north in their latest runs compared to their previous.  The magnitude of the trend may not be large, but the direction is clear (as of now) and indicates to me that the final solution isn't locked in or written in stone yet.  Or perhaps I am just seeing what I want to see?  lol

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6 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I agree with your analysis of the 2 main camps, but even the EURO/GFS/UKMET all moved the precip further north in their latest runs compared to their previous.  The magnitude of the trend may not be large, but the direction is clear (as of now) and indicates to me that the final solution isn't locked in or written in stone yet.  Or perhaps I am just seeing what I want to see?  lol

Storms like these are always far from it. There is always some last minute trend and a lot of times you need to rely on observations and forecasting based on nowcasting as the storm develops more. 

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Often when the RGEM and 3k NAM differ on where the cutoff is going to be, it's because of how they handle virga.  I think that may be the case here.  The below images are from the 00z 3k NAM run.  They alternate between simulated composite reflectivity (with p-type) and simulated base reflectivity.  The virga reaches north of DC.  I suspect the RGEM has more of the precip reaching the ground.

The RGEM could be wrong (it's made similar mistakes in the past), but it shows that we don't necessarily need a change in track to see some precipitation around DC.  Just less dry air near the surface.

99Ak9cw.gif

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8 minutes ago, yoda said:

Interesting... 00z FV3 gets 0.05" QPF line to S Fairfax and 0.01" QPF line just north of DC

EZF into S MD ~0.20-0.25" QPF

We just need one of our players to jump in our favor and we could be looking at an advisory level event for DC and south. Be interesting to look at the surface map tomorrow night just to see if we have s punchers chance.

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Could this be a Nowcast event!? Could the CMC be right? Probably not.... but it’s possible.

 

DC still has a shot at 2-4 if things go right and we see a broader / slightly north precipitation shield. Not discounting anything quite yet. It’s been trending ever so slightly north. We are definitely not seeing warning shows, but I won’t discount advisory snowfall until the storm comes and goes. Wouldn’t be the first or last time models were wrong. 

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9 hours ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I could be wrong but from what I see on radar now it already looks a little south to me. I think I saw some models show some pretty good rain totals in Dallas already by 18z but that doesn’t seem to be the case...they’re just getting in on good rain now 

Buda TX got at least 4 inches of rain. If that thing shifts north it will be juiced up but good.

 

Edit: Wrong storm lol. Need to read the topic title lol

You'll still get a lot of snow.

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Woah... 6z nam went pretty far north! DC is pretty damn close to seeing something appreciable. Come on baby... just a few more bumps north and central md is in on the action too ;) 

Ugh. This is going to be so depressing to watch glide south of us. It’ll even appear as if it’s coming straight toward us and then will hit a giant wall of dry air. 

 

6z nam eases up on the vort so the storm is able to track to a higher latitude. Hopefully 00z nam tonight shows another big shift 

 

agree with the observation that models have been weakening this storm for a few runs now. The northern feature never catches up and things remain flat at h5.  

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