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December 9/10 Storm


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Just now, osfan24 said:

The GFS snowfall map also has more of a east-west orientation than more southwest-northeast, which I think just shows how much the confluence is really pressing down. Not a good sign.

Yeah there is just no mechanism to get that low to move NE, or ENE. Its likely going to be heading SE as it exits the coast.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Are we still going with the weenie hail Mary classic: "poorly sampled shortwave moving in from the NPAC"?

As jb says....until all the players are out on the field

The players have been out on the field, and maintaining their positions, like a vanilla, predictable NFL defense.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
The players have been out on the field, and maintaining their positions, like a vanilla, predictable NFL defense.

Lol the models have gotten too good. We haven't seen a shift in 4 days since we lost our 1-2 feet smh

Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come.

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Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come.
Check out the gfs next weekend. We just need some more confluence!
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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come.

Pretty amazing precision by the models honing in on western NC jackpot for several days.  The ensembles bounced around up here in terms of the snowfall mean (seemed like a ping pong match as each model run came out) but as I think about it more, that was due to two camps that wobbled back and forth until they settled on a southern storm.  We'll get ours soon enough.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Yeah this one is about done. My brother in NC will get 8-12 inches so good for him. At least half of this subforum has already had a decent storm (not me) but it is what it is. The real epic-ness is yet to come.

Check out the gfs next weekend. We just need some more confluence!

LOL I was one who was arguing for confluence for this storm a few days ago. Too much of a "good" thing this time. But many times it is exactly what we need. Of course the position and strength has to be just right.

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41 minutes ago, Ji said:
45 minutes ago, BTRWx said:
No change from fv3 from NCEP.  Not looking good.

Wont be till 0z till big changes

Boy i hope you know something we don't, but i have to say that while i have been an advocate for the northern trend, just not seeing enough wobble to see that happening.  That NS energy has been far too consistent to see enough notable changes happen.  If you have a voodo doll...i'll send you more pins.

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1 hour ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Agreed. The GFS was jumpy and showed some major hits early on but over the last 48 hours or so has been pretty steady eddy. I declared this storm dead for the Baltimore area on my weather page earlier today 

Yea, I agree too. I find it pretty interesting too that the GFS (and most globals) in general seem to do better in the mid/long range when the northern features (strong NAO, AO, etc) are on one side of the bell curve or the other.

It makes sense: the more stable the input the more repeatable the output. But what’s interesting is the northern component to the consistency.

 

In this case, my opinion is the only mechanisms of increase  for northward movement would be driven by a)not currently modeled relaxation in confluence, b) well timed piece of energy embedded in northern flow exiting at a favorable moment which could lift the barolocnic zone between the approaching SW and NS (which in essence is a relaxation in confluence), c)not currently modeled amplification of the SW which of course, has a cap to how much it can deepen.

I give dc metro a 20% chance of dusting-1”

which would be pretty sweet!

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33 minutes ago, Ji said:

bold for Ric

 

46 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

 

Update for you all from DT 

47580835_1977173738996541_7751263517885333504_n.jpg

I can just about guarantee Asheville won’t see 18 inches. They only reached it in the 93 superstorm with a far more favorable setup. Just moved back to dc after living there for a couple years.  Downsloping always hurts there. The mountains around Asheville will get hammered 

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3 minutes ago, Inthepines said:

 

I can just about guarantee Asheville won’t see 18 inches. They only reached it in the 93 superstorm with a far more favorable setup. Just moved back to dc after living there for a couple years.  Downsloping always hurts there. The mountains around Asheville will get hammered 

So how much snow are you forecasting for Asheville?

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4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I’m going with 2-4. Catch a little northern edge banding.

Sure.  It’s all on the table.  I think I will be looking at clouds heavy at times high 37 winds NNE at 3..then later that night decreasing clouds heavy at times low 29

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2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Sure.  It’s all on the table.  I think I will be looking at clouds heavy at times high 37 winds NNE at 3..then later that night decreasing clouds heavy at times low 29

Maybe i should still be in golf mode. 37 with light wind would be nice conditions. I should probably book a round of golf which would pretty much guarantee a foot of snow

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