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December 9/10 Storm


stormtracker
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7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Like what? What the CMC showed? What are the odds of that?

Or really...when was the last time guidance looked this locked in on a suppressed solution 4-5 days out, and it all of the sudden trended much further north?

Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have. 

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have. 

I agree. I get that models changing output gets frustrating, but if events were fairly well locked in by day 6-8 it would render at least the tracking part of this hobby rather moot. Like tracking the sunrise, baring a catastrophic disaster it will rise and set so what's the use of tracking it. Analyzing panels, discussing what could, should, or might happen are what makes the game. Sure the rare biggies that lock in from longer leads are memorable and that adds to their lore but I think over time that would get boring if it was the status quo. I think folks lose that perspective sometimes, or maybe I'm just an odd ball. :)

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Track enough storms and you'll understand. I've been at this since 06 back when it was Easternwx and other regulars have been doing it for far longer. NWP is incredibly good and advanced but synoptic events beyond 72 hours are rarely "locked in". Our area is still well within a range of error that could put us in the game. Does it look promising at this exact moment? No, it looks like areas to the south will enjoy this and we'll be on the outside looking in. But we're only talking a 75-150 mile shift. That's pretty small for the amount of lead time we still have. 

Excellent points Mr. Chill. I can think of about 10,000 times (exaggerated slightly) we have been hoping for that kind of shift within 24-48 hrs. Guidance certainly is trending the wrong direction, but there isnt a snowballs chance in hell I throw the towel in on this one 4-5 days out...  

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31 minutes ago, Ji said:

NCEP used to post GEFS and GEPS verification scores, but for some reason this year they no longer post scores for the GEPS (or NAEFS).  From what I've seen the GEPS are generally better than the GEFS in the long range (more spread) and worse in the short range (more spread).  At this range, they should be similar to the GEFS.

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12 minutes ago, yoda said:

Not saying it will happen, but wasn't it Jan 2010 that there was a storm that was going to stay south of us in NC and slowly but surely it came north?  It can happen.  Not always, of course, but to echo what others have said, 100 miles in 5 days isn't the end all.

Jan 30, 2010 was showing up on the analogs earlier this week I think for this storm.

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6 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I agree. I get that models changing output gets frustrating, but if events were fairly well locked in by day 6-8 it would render at least the tracking part of this hobby rather moot. Like tracking the sunrise, baring a catastrophic disaster it will rise and set so what's the use of tracking it. Analyzing panels, discussing what could, should, or might happen are what makes the game. Sure the rare biggies that lock in from longer leads are memorable and that adds to their lore but I think over time that would get boring if it was the status quo. I think folks lose that perspective sometimes, or maybe I'm just an odd ball. :)

NWP can nail stable high pressure a week out no problem so it's not like models "can't" get it right at long leads because they can. Synoptic events are exponentially more complicated. This particular one is a bit easier because it's mostly a southern stream storm. Think back to 13-14 or 14-15... lol. We had events that weren't even on the radar until 5 days out and practically every single one shifted around quite a bit even inside of 48 hours. Progressive northern stream events are the absolute hardest for models to figure out. Just being close at 24-48 hours is enough to keep you very interested. 

This particular event has a northern stream component that could change things. The CMC showed that today. That shortwave is still in the Gulf of Alaska. Is the CMC's solution possible? Absolutely. Not much support for that solution with the 12z suite but who knows.

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Did we give up when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no. In all seriousness, we have models advertising a storm 100 hours or so out and it’s within a couple hundred miles of being a big hit. Too soon to throw in the towel in my opinion.

Yeah but the EURO just disappointed 

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Busy at work just checking in,  I thought the Euro was going move North. Still seems firm in a Southern solution but what got my attention is something I hardly see mentioned , at least in this case as to why the storm is staying South. 

I mean I heard the about the NS vorts, the confluence, high pressure and the western ridge too but then I came across some sort of involvement with the SPV .

HM was mentioning the " The trough down 60W is part of the full vortex and all of its associated cyclones in the troposphere."

 Seems that when you look at the SPV in 3D you can see this better. 

This is the first time I read about this and the 3D look at the vortex really adds a nice visual depicting how it can be formed in odd shapes and changes in height, for example it can be whole at the upper levels and split like a pair of pants at the bottom. 

You can see it better below in the animations or visit the thread as I don't want to post too many of these. 

There is involvement here with the pattern and the storm and this is acting a untraditional block I think 

 

I guess this sums it up here from HM , " Looking at the big picture, this isn't the most ideal way to slow down the "50-50 low" and suppress a coastal storm (North Atlantic blocking is the best recipe for that). However, you can visualize how this full structure would help to slow down the tropospheric-portion somewhat"

  

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