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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Welcome! As things stand now, you are well placed for this one! 

 

3 minutes ago, Mountian Man said:

Hello everybody I’m been lurking for a long time. I live in the mountains of southern Wv. I love this forum. 

Climatically your better off than all of us. We have quite the storm coming up and you could be standing at ground zero. Welcome to the Tennessee Valley it's nice to see someone to the northeast of Honaker. 

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Just now, BlunderStorm said:

 

Climatically your better off than all of us. We have quite the storm coming up and you could be standing at ground zero. Welcome to the Tennessee Valley it's nice to see someone to the northeast of Honaker. 

Thank you. The biggest snow I’ve seen in my 56 years was the super storm. We had 42 in

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Some subtle but maybe important differences between the energy on the RGEM and the NAM.  RGEM seems to like a more consolidated "bowling ball" type look at H5, while the NAM seems more strung out with the energy from North to South. These little differences can amplify as we go through time. 

RGEM at the also end looks like it is a little bit faster with the N stream energy that tries to drop in from Alberta and phase on the big globals. Overall at 54 hours the RGEM is further south with the big ball of energy than the NAM. 

Personally I like that and hope it verifies, because the further south it gets, the more latitude it all has to gain. 

It's a little more positively tilted and flatter than its parent (I think??) the CMC, so hopefully that argues against the more amped miller B transfer types solutions, like the big on the CMC had at 12z. Only goes to hour 54 so these are just big guesses, so take with a salt lick. 

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Icon has our favorable track, and the track I think we ultimately end up with, but it is its own usual dumpster fire

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2 hours ago, caitsaunt said:

I've read every word of this thread, I'm enjoying following the speculation. I have a question about travel, too.  I am driving from Opryland to Chattanooga Sunday morning. I'm mainly worried about Monteagle - any thoughts? 

Most model guidance would suggest it will be too warm for snow on Sunday in southern Tennessee. That said nothing is really set yet so I would keep a sharp eye on the forecasts, models, and forum discussion for the next day or two.

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I’ve been lurking on this forum as well. I live in Lexington, KY and just moved a few months ago from Kansas City area. I know I’m not Southern KY, but this forum is more my area then the Ohio Valley forum. :)

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8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

18z GFS looks better IMO


.

That track is awesome, it's a tick south of the nam, ideal.  

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8 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said:

I’ve been lurking on this forum as well. I live in Lexington, KY and just moved a few months ago from Kansas City area. I know I’m not Southern KY, but this forum is more my area then the Ohio Valley forum. :)

Welcome aboard, It's ok to blur the boundaries a little, Mountain Man is in southern West Virginia and we often get visited by posters in the deep south and Arkansas.

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2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Panel for hour 90 is the only panel loaded beyond hour 72, but aside from the downslope over my back yard, a LOT of you guys will like it!!  John, especially.......

3B891A55-DEEB-49E5-8AC1-EC01A28AD142.png

That is full blown maximus right there.

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This thing is just so razor thin on the models. You could see an hour of heavy snow, an hour of heavy rain, and back and forth. It's going to come down to knowing your general climatology and how your area does in these situations. Usually I'd make out pretty well but occasionally I'll have mixing issues.

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3 minutes ago, Bango said:

It's amazing how fv3 model consistently "sticks" on the best upcoming panel

It know's everyone is waiting. I'm encouraged to see it laying down the hammer, the WPC thought it was good enough to include in it's superblend of models. The GFS and UKIE are too progressive and open with the wave per WPC.

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Maybe the NAM is correct for once at 84...... So hard to try and not get hyped up for these events because of that pesky warm nose that seems to always comes up through the valley to shatter our dreams.

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If you change the toggle from "MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) to Radar (Rain/Frozen) the FV3 goes out to 210. Here is a shot at 120. Looks like the low just stalls off the NC coast for 24+ hours.

image.thumb.png.93743b30410d096607719f2f5ef1bdf4.png

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If you change the toggle from "MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) to Radar (Rain/Frozen) the FV3 goes out to 210. Here is a shot at 120. Looks like the low just stalls off the NC coast for 24+ hours.
image.thumb.png.93743b30410d096607719f2f5ef1bdf4.png


Oh my. That would be a wax job for most of E Tennessee


.
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Just now, PowellVolz said:

 


Oh my. That would be a wax job for most of E Tennessee


.

 

No kidding. Snow map on tropical is out to 102 and it’s already sexy. Need more agreement before I get too excited.

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

 


Oh my. That would be a wax job for most of E Tennessee 


.

Through 102 here is the snow total map from the FV3. I'm convinced something is not correct with the snow map on the FV3, but it looks like it snows through 126 in East TN.

image.thumb.png.26c09038bcd31e58be26f2abaa9d03b4.png

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How much of the snow comes from the coastal spin cycle?  Not saying it isn't gonna happen but isn't this the only model showing that?

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2 minutes ago, Blue Ridge said:

Curious why such a hole over Unicoi, Carter, Johnson, and Washington Counties exists. Mixing or downslope?

I would think downslope out of the two but I don't know what causes such a dramatic difference.

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