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December 8-10 Storm Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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I went and double checked the 0z Euro.  It had 10-12" of snow on the AM run in the Tri-Cities region, but those were not isolated amounts. Basically the area expanded southward and upward at 12z.  Many of the same features were present.  Folks, what time does the Euro roll tonight?  Might set the alarm clock.  I know some of ya'll are gonna be up!

 

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3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I concur. Can't blame them though. Outside Winter Storm Jonas (1/22-23/2016), BNA has seen more whiffs than hits the past decade.

You and me both. I can't allow myself to get too giddy over the 12z Euro until the trend establishes itself. 

Yes, I would concur, the snowdome is safe and sound and they are expecting it to hold this year as well. Though, as we have alluded to, if modeling is still showing the same thing especially by Thursday at this time, then well, perhaps we might get a plowable snow. 

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3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I concur. Can't blame them though. Outside Winter Storm Jonas (1/22-23/2016), BNA has seen more whiffs than hits the past decade.

You and me both. I can't allow myself to get too giddy over the 12z Euro until the trend establishes itself. 

Right there with you.  I will add that we have had two straight Euro runs right now with big numbers.  I think the Smokies got north of 27" on the 0z run.  The ensembles are what I can barely get over.  Those are some big numbers on the EPS and GEFS.  Anytime I see a snow mean over 4", that is a good signal...and those have been in our region for many runs.   So, right now I think we just watch trends.   What I want to see are the ingredients that we have saw from the Euro at 0z/12z which are a nice track, high pressure over the top, and precip feeding in off the Atlantic.  Models have been spitting out huge number for this system for a while...but like you, I want to seen where the focus is from here.  Lettuce(intended spelling error) not forget about the 12z UKMET.  That looked pretty good as well.   On to the next suite!!!

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Just now, AndyHamachek said:

We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed 

On the Euro the snow doesn't begin until Sunday around noon in Pigeon Forge. The heaviest snow that falls there falls overnight Sunday through the day Monday.

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1 minute ago, AndyHamachek said:

We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed 

Your questions are welcome this is what this thread is for. There is certainly the possibility of some snow down the eastern valley after the storm starts to head NE up the coast. Nothing is set in stone but if a quick changeover happened you could have a rough drive home. Regardless your trip is going to be cold and wet (think 37 in a downpour). If you attempt to visit the Smokies  you will almost certainly be met with Heavy snowfall as the road through Newfound Gap goes over 5000ft in elevation. I would not recommend visiting Cherokee, NC from Pigeon Forge.

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7 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said:

We are supposed to go to pigeon forge Friday night and leave Sunday morning and head back to Athens georgia what and when is it supposed to do anything??? Sorry if not allowed 

Looks like you already have received some good advice from other posters...You know, I think I would just keep an eye on what the National Weather Service says and keep reading here.  I would think by the time that you leave, that any potential watches or warnings would be posted.  Not sure the direction that you choose to take from Athens, but even it just snows in the mountains at elevation that might limit your route to just I-75.  I would not cancel anything until at the earliest Thursday.  One time I was telling some folks that I worked with how much snow we were going to get(there was a heavy snow warning in place for the record...lol) and they canceled some plans to Asheville.  It did not snow a flake.  That happened in the early 2000s.  I learned my lesson then.   It was at that point, I think I decided to start looking at weather models myself...

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We have a wedding Saturday at 3 in Gatlinburg then Dixie stampede Saturday night and leave Sunday morning heading back to Athens ga we r not planning on going to North Carolina I know we go thru there to get to pigeon forge come up 23 to 74 to I believe I-40 and then come in from there I remember last year same weekend we came up to pigeon forge and passed by the bush beans factory

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18z is probably going to be unimpressive for anyone outside of Western NC. Low is flatter/slower and I think much weaker. It looks like it's sliding off the coast before turning up and may be a little further east.

Banana high over the top in Wisconsin/Iowa and Northern Virginia with a great track, but once again the GFS pumps the 850s up into Ohio.

Edit: It winds up and slows down over the Outer Banks.  Surface temperatures are hilariously stubborn over East Tennessee during the period. 

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I look at the shape of the storm on the GFS(nice comma), the track, and where the highs are...I have to think that is snow west of the Apps if that occurs.  I might be wrong.  And...that actually looked even better than its 12z run.  Not sure what happened to the thermal profile.  I just think everything is hanging on about a one or two degree edge, and the slightest nudge moves things.  If anything, it looks like there is some agreement today on the track.  

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The 850 low on the 18z GFS is about 150 miles north of the same on the Euro at hour 120. That makes all the difference. The overall trend over the past few runs for the GFS with the 850 low has been slower and slightly further south. Euro trend has been mostly slower. The GFS takes that feature up toward Cumberland Gap over time and the Euro aims it at the SW tip of NC.  

I've seen a lot of discussion of the GFS (not just the FV3) thermal profiles from Mets in and around the forum and it usually isn't a resounding endorsement of the GFS. 

Can Euro be Dr. Yes for once? 

 

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