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Holston_River_Rambler

December 8-10 Storm Discussion

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2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

In terms of NE TN...again, I was surprised at how much of the storm was left on the NAM.  Normally, once the event begins, models chop away very quickly areas even that were in the bullseye. 

 

 

I can't speak for anyone else but I believe the 3km has handled this very well for me.

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6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Well, ignore my last post. I thought the NAM was at 15 hours but it was only at 5. 

NAM is still goofy, any model showing 8.1" at TYS and half that in Morristown is offs it's rocker to an extent i would think.

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I just did another check outside. It has entirely stopped with the freezing rain. What I'm looking at out there isn't even sleet it's graupel. The snowflakes are only partially getting melted. Just one little boost that's all I need to jump start my snow totals. Also I apologize if I'm posting too much or not contributing enough to the general conversation. I'm going to limit my yammering.

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8 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

NAM is still goofy, any model showing 8.1" at TYS and half that in Morristown is offs it's rocker to an extent i would think.

Yeah, it can definitely lollipop places for sure.  I just kind of smooth that out in my mind, and then cut a fraction off the top of whatever total is there.  Back to very heavy sleet.  

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MRX made no changes to the WSW and WWA and said the commahead will come through with heavy snow bands over the morning into afternoon hours. Hope some of you guys that were getting snow can avoid much freezing rain and that the front end thump at least looked great for a while. This warm nose means business if it manages to get to you. 

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30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The FV3 at 6z is still spitting out some pretty big numbers for areas of the forum even as some of the storm has already passed.

305399149_ScreenShot2018-12-09at5_58_55AM.png.1cbbaaf19a19045ecbe91f4fc53796d4.png.

 

You can tell on the hr 6 frame that it is incorrectly handling the 925 temps for Central and Southern Valley. It has 0° line near me, but unless the temp can drop 4° in next 20 mins on the Skyway, that's not going to verify.

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Trailing edge of precip shield leaving my area right now, ended up with somewhere around .15 in or so of freezing rain.  A few areas without power but nothing major. Strangely, never really had a changeover to sleet and no snow at all here.  Best of luck to all of you in the East!!

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Maybe I missed this but looks like MRX added all of Blount County to the WWA (previously we weren't included here in Louisville), specifically mentions issues with the commute Monday. Heavy sleet just started in Blount County near TYS (just north)

 

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...

Moderate to locally heavy snow will continue across Southwest
Virginia, Northeast Tennessee, and the mountains along the North
Carolina border. Significant snow accumulations are expected in
these areas, especially over the higher terrain.

The moderate to heavy snow will taper off late this afternoon.
Scattered rain and snow showers are expected again tonight and
Monday, with only light additional snow accumulations.

TNZ035>038-069>071-073-092100-
/O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
North Sevier-
Including the cities of Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge,
Maynardville, Rutledge, Knoxville, Dandridge, Maryville,
and Sevierville
313 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of a half inch to 2
  inches.

* WHERE...Central portions of the Tennessee Valley, including
  Knoxville, Sevierville, and Oak Ridge.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.
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4 minutes ago, Knoxtron said:

Maybe I missed this but looks like MRX added all of Blount County to the WWA (previously we weren't included here in Louisville), specifically mentions issues with the commute Monday. Heavy sleet just started in Blount County near TYS (just north)

 

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND NORTHERN TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY...

Moderate to locally heavy snow will continue across Southwest
Virginia, Northeast Tennessee, and the mountains along the North
Carolina border. Significant snow accumulations are expected in
these areas, especially over the higher terrain.

The moderate to heavy snow will taper off late this afternoon.
Scattered rain and snow showers are expected again tonight and
Monday, with only light additional snow accumulations.

TNZ035>038-069>071-073-092100-
/O.CON.KMRX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-181210T1700Z/
Morgan-Anderson-Union-Grainger-Knox-Jefferson-NW Blount-
North Sevier-
Including the cities of Wartburg, Clinton, Oak Ridge,
Maynardville, Rutledge, Knoxville, Dandridge, Maryville,
and Sevierville
313 AM EST Sun Dec 9 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of a half inch to 2
  inches.

* WHERE...Central portions of the Tennessee Valley, including
  Knoxville, Sevierville, and Oak Ridge.

* WHEN...Until noon EST Monday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

Yeah they did, they are focused on the 2nd piece of energy for tonight that will have the biggest impact on the central/southern valley.

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6 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Yeah they did, they are focused on the 2nd piece of energy for tonight that will have the biggest impact on the central/southern valley.

What are the chances we see some accumulating snow from that system?

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18 minutes ago, McMinnWx said:

What are the chances we see some accumulating snow from that system?

00z Euro, showed accumulations of an inch or two for McMinn/Monroe area. Some models have it, some dont. MRX updated the point cast this morning here to include up to an inch overnight.

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1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

You can tell on the hr 6 frame that it is incorrectly handling the 925 temps for Central and Southern Valley. It has 0° line near me, but unless the temp can drop 4° in next 20 mins on the Skyway, that's not going to verify.

How much snow on Skyway? I'm in Graham County?

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24 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said:

How much snow on Skyway? I'm in Graham County?

Highest point on the road is 5390', and Newfound Gap was getting rocked last night, so I would assume it was about the same up there. We got nothing but rain. How did your side do in the low elevations?

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2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

00z Euro, showed accumulations of an inch or two for McMinn/Monroe area. Some models have it, some dont. MRX updated the point cast this morning here to include up to an inch overnight.

Thank you! Hoping it will materialize. The NAM and other short-range models aren’t giving me much hope. 

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13 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

Not official but seems we scored a quarter inch of ice here in the Bluff based on severed tree branch glaze measurements. Sadly, I won’t be able to chase today. My better half came done with a stomach bug at absolutely the worst possible time. I’m still efforting to weed out selfish impurities from my concern package. I really wanted to get in on some of that east TN snow action today. Also, I think Paul Heggen took all the exciting weather with him when he left WSMV. Until things change around here, no problem making Channel 4 a scapegoat.

Edit: Apologies...this should have been in banter. My bad.

Hope she gets to feeling better soon bud, I hate we couldn’t cash in over the past 24 hours!

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Highest point on the road is 5390', and Newfound Gap was getting rocked last night, so I would assume it was about the same up there. We got nothing but rain. How did your side do in the low elevations?

Newfound Gap had 7 inches before midnight last night.


.

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49 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

The 3k 12z NAM and RGEM are pretty aggressive with the secondary feature overnight.  

Though "aggressive" here still isn't much. 

Beggars can't be choosers and we're beggars. Funfact my account is named BlunderStorm for a reason. It was to give good irony to my condition. Today my name can be taken literally. Until the next snowstorm hits and it's a win here I think I'll put this as my profile picture. It's fun using garfield in my profile picture because he is so versatile in that he fits in almost any situation.

 927590151_GarfieldBust.PNG.bab502c06d56e65c3da4118bc8adb601.PNG

  • Haha 1

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