BlunderStorm Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Downsloping off Clinch Mtn perhaps? There may also be downsloping off Holston Mtn, but I am far enough away that it isn't affecting me. Yeah, that's pretty much it. This will be something I'll take account for in future events. Considering temperatures don't look to get significantly colder tonight this isn't going to stop anytime soon. I guess I could hope for some heavy rates to overcome but at the same time that's a double edged sword as it introduces more freezing rain to the ground and makes the situation worse. I'm expecting a pretty hefty glaze now. My only hope is for colder air in the upper levels to be forcibly advected into the valley which at this point is laughable. (refer to John's post above) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Event is already underway but worth posting the 0z ECMWF totals before things get crazy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 5 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Yeah, that's pretty much it. This will be something I'll take account for in future events. Considering temperatures don't look to get significantly colder tonight this isn't going to stop anytime soon. I guess I could hope for some heavy rates to overcome but at the same time that's a double edged sword as it introduces more freezing rain to the ground and makes the situation worse. I'm expecting a pretty hefty glaze now. My only hope is for colder air in the upper levels to be forcibly advected into the valley which at this point is laughable. (refer to John's post above) With the SW flow, definitely need to bulldoze this feature lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Nice big flakes of heavy snow at bulls gap exit off 81. This place is gonna get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: The 925 and 850s are so bad at this point I'll be surprised if they can work out anywhere outside extreme NE areas. 925 was right below me at 9:45. Now its way up in Kentucky. The 850 has shot into Ohio. Hopefully the NE areas can hold on, but the warm nose is as strong as any I've seen for the track the low is taking and the relative weakness of it. You'd think it was 992 the way it's pumped up temps. I'm not ready to cliff dive yet lol, need to see how thing react in those level once we turn off the flow from the gulf. Then it's up to how much cold air the NNW side of the 850 vort can bring and if the UVVs can bring it to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 7 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Event is already underway but worth posting the 0z ECMWF totals before things get crazy: Hopefully this is remotely correct for my area but I'm extremely skeptical at this point. Temp is now at 36, up 3 degrees. There's not a lot of cold to be found as the high moves east and the sw flow keeps pumping. MRX is bullish for SW Virginia where it bumped totals to 6-12. Lowered my area to 1-4. I'll count 2 as a win right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 mPING submitted. Impressive but not sticking to the grass yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I'm amused at my own folley at this point. The temperature is 31 and I'm trapped with my most hated precip type for the storm I had been looking forward to for 11 days. In other news the precipitation is picking up. Ice, Ice, Baby! Why am I laughing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, TellicoWx said: I'm not ready to cliff dive yet lol, need to see how thing react in those level once we turn off the flow from the gulf. Then it's up to how much cold air the NNW side of the 850 vort can bring and if the UVVs can bring it to the surface. I've seen a lot of these events and it's tough for them to turn favorable once rain bores in like this. Especially if the energy transfers off the coast. We will be counting on a dying ULL to provide the punch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: I've seen a lot of these events and it's tough for them to turn favorable once rain bores in like this. Especially if the energy transfers off the coast. We will be counting on a dying ULL to provide the punch. You definitely hit the nail on the head, and why I have one foot dangling at the ledge lol. If the transfer is quicker, then I hoped I packed a parachute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: I'm amused at my own folley at this point. The temperature is 31 and I'm trapped with my most hated precip type for the storm I had been looking forward to for 11 days. In other news the precipitation is picking up. Ice, Ice, Baby! Why am I laughing? I don't know how to say this but...It's back to snow by some miracle all in the short time span of 10 minutes! I don't know how, I don't know why, I don't know for how long but the downslope has toned it down some. Welp, I'm not forgetting this one. You see I didn't cliff dive I accepted my fate and said go on mock me. Instead in the most twisted way it mocked me in that it is now a pure heavy snowfall with some inch in diameter flakes. Of course in 15 mins I'm sure It'll be back to roasting anything frozen that dare falls here within a 5 mile radius. UPDATE: 2 minutes later it's back to a mix. xD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, BlunderStorm said: I don't know how to say this but...It's back to snow by some miracle all in the short time span of 10 minutes! I don't know how, I don't know why, I don't know for how long but the downslope has toned it down some. Welp, I'm not forgetting this one. You see I didn't cliff dive I accepted my fate and said go on mock me. Instead in the most twisted way it mocked me in that it is now a pure heavy snowfall with some inch in diameter flakes. Of course in 15 mins I'm sure It'll be back to roasting anything frozen that dare falls here within a 5 mile radius. You should be good for 6-8 inches of snow. I'll be surprised if you change back to anything liquid. I'm more surprised you found a way to not be snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I don't know how to say this but...It's back to snow by some miracle all in the short time span of 10 minutes! I don't know how, I don't know why, I don't know for how long but the downslope has toned it down some. Welp, I'm not forgetting this one. You see I didn't cliff dive I accepted my fate and said go on mock me. Instead in the most twisted way it mocked me in that it is now a pure heavy snowfall with some inch in diameter flakes. Of course in 15 mins I'm sure It'll be back to roasting anything frozen that dare falls here within a 5 mile radius. UPDATE: 2 minutes later it's back to a mix. xD925-850 column is probably and finally cooling on that side of Clinch now like had down here in Bristol. Enjoy the show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 I'm between Greeneville and Johnson City. In the past 30 minutes it's really started hammering snow. Nothing is more beautiful than this snow globe effect in the middle of the night. Hopefully everyone that wants snow will get enough to make you happy. Looks like about half an inch on the porch now. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, DownNDirtyTN said: I'm between Greeneville and Johnson City. In the past 30 minutes it's really started hammering snow. Nothing is more beautiful than this snow globe effect in the middle of the night. Hopefully everyone that wants snow will get enough to make you happy. Looks like about half an inch on the porch now. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Really glad the precipitation type isn't rocket science for some folks. Hope you folks down there hold on to that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 The battle line is drawn and the trench is dug in deep. But all is not quiet on the western front.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 It's just been rain, rain, and more rain near La Follette. If I could just see some flakes, I'll be ecstatic at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Watching from up in Illinois Best of luck to you all, may the snow be ever in your favor. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 41 minutes ago, Windspeed said: Event is already underway but worth posting the 0z ECMWF totals before things get crazy: Thanks for posting. That will save me some attachment storage space. I was beginning to think things were not on track. But I forget that the Euro is in 6 hour increments on WeatherBell. That means that what looked like no mix on earlier runs...was likely a transition time. Now to the point, other than an inch or two...the snow on that map falls between hours 6 and 18. That means, according to the Euro, we are not to time when prime rates will fall. That is likely a little later this morning. Fingers crossed. Great to see that the Euro held surprisingly while we were in the middle of the event. I would have expected totals to have come down some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Some parts of NE AR are up to .50" of ice accretion and never fully changed to snow as some of the modeling showed..lots of power outages reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 1 minute ago, Windspeed said: The battle line is drawn and the trench is dug in deep. But all is not quiet on the western front.... Progress was being made but it was painfully slow. Behind frontlines allegiances sway and support for the war is limited. In some cases riots occurred resulting in sways towards support of the rain. It would be a long war of attrition. (To be continued) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 That heavy snow in Limestone just turned into heavy freezing rain. Only a few outlying flakes now but the house is getting pounded with freezing rain and slushy mix. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 6 minutes ago, Runman292 said: It's just been rain, rain, and more rain near La Follette. If I could just see some flakes, I'll be ecstatic at this point. I managed some slush on the cars but that's been it. It's even rain at 2500 feet so the whole county is in the same boat right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 New found Gap is getting crushed...automated sensor: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 What is crazy about this... @Windspeed, I am to the west of you I think. Even though I am to the west, it seems that you are seeing the weather transitions for Kingsport first - probably because the winds are out of the east. Back to moderate snow here...just echoing what you posted a few minutes ago in the obs thread. I agree, it means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Looked at NAM wrong...ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: New found Gap is getting crushed...automated sensor: It would not surprise to see 2-3' on the highest ridges in the Apps. Good find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Looks like another wave of heavier snow is heading up this way in the next hour. Maybe this is what I need to finally fully transition. This downslope effect is going to be a chronic feature of this storm. How strong it is, is another thing. I'm sure if we had posters in Damascus or up along south Holston you'd hear the same. I'm not thinking complete bust. I'm considering dozing off but I don't want to miss a potential change over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 Well, ignore my last post. I thought the NAM was at 15 hours but it was only at 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 9, 2018 Share Posted December 9, 2018 In terms of NE TN...again, I was surprised at how much of the storm was left on the NAM. Normally, once the event begins, models chop away very quickly areas even that were in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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