PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I cannot see how MRX can ignore the trends this morning. I really wish if they were just going with their gut on this they would tell us that and I would respect it. It’s better that way than leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering what they are looking at, especially the northern plateau areas which look almost as good as the NE valley. . Supposed to be Gut instead of guy. Won’t edit for some reason . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, PowellVolz said: Supposed to be Gut instead of guy. Won’t edit for some reason . Don't worry it did on my end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Don't worry it did on my end.Do you agree with me or am I off here? I’m thinking they may add everyone N and E of Knoxville to the WSW and go with an advisory for Knox Co. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I cannot see how MRX can ignore the trends this morning. I really wish if they were just going with their gut on this they would tell us that and I would respect it. It’s better that way than leaving everyone scratching their heads wondering what they are looking at, especially the northern plateau areas which look almost as good as the NE valley. . They erred on the side of caution. At the afternoon update, we will be roughly right at the 18 hr lead time window, and we will see an expansion or issuance of a WWA (prob knox/Loudon area north). In the public's eyes, it's easier to upgrade then it is the cancel (people always remember the blown forecast to the bad more). We have all seen models lose a system, that was very consistent, between 24-18 hrs out and bust...so they waited for the edge of the issuance envelope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, tnweathernut said: I see MathMet lurking, hope you are doing well. We all probably MBY focused on some level, but I’d like to know if you have an opinion of the mesoscale models showing the downslope this AM? If your prior opinion still stands no worries about a response, I know you have to be busy....lol overall modeling seems to be converging on a heavy northeast (maybe much of east) TN snow. It’s funny I’m almost obsessing about the trailing piece of energy as much as the main system. I find that discrete feature fascinating! To be honest, it does concern me that it shows up on the models. I still don’t see much of a surface response to potential downslope on the surface wind or temperature products, so it could be overdone. But models are trying to depict something happening in those areas, so it’s hard to completely dismiss that. I have a lot less experience with this type of setup compared to true downslope events. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Do you agree with me or am I off here? I’m thinking they may add everyone N and E of Knoxville to the WSW and go with an advisory for Knox Co. . Tough question I've been mostly out for the morning and haven't really looked hard at the models. I'm feeling pretty confident they will put an advisory in Knox county. I'm not really sure they will implace a WSW North and East of there but I'm willing to bet they begrudgingly will. I would see the WSW brought down to Grainger, Union, Jefferson, and Sevier as the line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The thing with winter weather/tornado warnings...if you cry wolf too many times, people won't react when the wolf actual comes. NE TN has been almost a lock for several days now, so a warning early out for there only is a good call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 In my amateur opinion Jackson KY needs to issue some warnings for their southeast counties and Morristown needs to issue warnings for Hawkins, Hancock and Greene Counties. Also they need to expand the warnings into John’s area. I’m fairly confident John will see warning criteria snows. He does very well in these scenarios where rain switches to snow thanks to dynamic cooling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mountian Man Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I believe it is a tough call up my way. Still under a watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Changeover to snow starting in AR...some decent icing on trees and powerlines from the pics I've seen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12z Euro with more moisture and quicker changeover even in the valley vs 00z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyHamachek Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 How’s pigeon forge looking? We r here when do we need to think about getting out of dodge and making a run for Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, AndyHamachek said: How’s pigeon forge looking? We r here when do we need to think about getting out of dodge and making a run for Atlanta Pigeon forge looks ok right now, I’d just keep an eye on weather.gov the rest of the day too see if that changes. I think you’ll be ok though, right now it looks like they might get an inch or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 25 minutes ago, Mountian Man said: I believe it is a tough call up my way. Still under a watch In my opinion they should have called a winter storm warning hours ago for Mercer and Mcdowell. I'm feeling pretty confident the precipitation shield reaches there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Interesting, 12z Euro has the second trailing piece as well Monday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Currently the 850 is 80-100 miles south of the NAM/3K/FV3/GFS/CMC/RGEM 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: In my opinion they should have called a winter storm warning hours ago for Mercer. With it coming in at night I’m sure they are being more frugal with the warnings because they know most people won’t be out and about that late tonight anyways. Especially with the hazardous weather outlook already in place, I’d bet you get to WSW criteria by nightfall though. They also probably want to be 100% correct in the areas they give warnings too, so they’re waiting for a little more data so they can have a better overall depiction of the storm and it’s track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12z Euro (includes 2nd piece) 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 For anyone expecting MRX to change their products, I'll be shocked if they do. Maybe they'll add a row to the WWA. In the past the snow is on the ground before they consider changing things. This week we had 1.5 to 3 inches here with no advisory. Even though most models were actually showing those amounts. I had 7.5 once and 5 were on the ground before a snow advisory product was issued. 9 inches under a WWA that never upgraded and they knew it was happening. In 2009-10 I had over 40 inches of snow with multiple over 5 inches and was under a winter storm warning 1 time the entire season when I got 13 inches. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Areas in the valley below Loudon/Blount would have had a greater increase in snowfall, but the Euro warms the 925's during the day tomorrow (850's below 0 across the entire valley) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12z Euro (includes 2nd piece)Looks like the heavy snow line didn’t move much south but the overall snow line moved 25-30 miles south of Knoxville. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Math/Met said: To be honest, it does concern me that it shows up on the models. I still don’t see much of a surface response to potential downslope on the surface wind or temperature products, so it could be overdone. But models are trying to depict something happening in those areas, so it’s hard to completely dismiss that. I have a lot less experience with this type of setup compared to true downslope events. To expand on this discussion. There could be a shadowing effect right along the mountains that decreases precip. I’m not sure that it would be as expansive as some models are showing. Possibly a narrow region right along the mountains. There could also be an area just northwest of that where surface convergence would actually act to increase lift and enhance banding of precip. That’s just my thoughts. As you all are well aware, trying to predict wind flow through and over complex terrain is not easy. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, John1122 said: For anyone expecting MRX to change their products, I'll be shocked if they do. Maybe they'll add a row to the WWA. In the past the snow is on the ground before they consider changing things. This week we had 1.5 to 3 inches here with no advisory. Even though most models were actually showing those amounts. I had 7.5 once and 5 were on the ground before a snow advisory product was issued. 9 inches under a WWA that never upgraded and they knew it was happening. In 2009-10 I had over 40 inches of snow with multiple over 5 inches and was under a winter storm warning 1 time the entire season when I got 13 inches. Wow, it’s funny how different the criteria is for warnings in different parts of the country. Down here, 2-4 is WSW criteria, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I believe it is a tough call up my way. Still under a watch Like Blunderstorm I’m fairly confident that the northern edge will make it to Bluefield. That is if the 3k NAM/RGEM are correct. That’s a very good combo to have on your side. You will also be 100% snow and will have true 10/1 ratios. I would be concerned with snow dropping off 77 toward Beckley. I would love to see pictures of the tunnels in Bluefield and Bland, VA with a big snow. I’ve done some work in those tunnels this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, PowellVolz said: Looks like the heavy snow line didn’t move much south but the overall snow line moved 25-30 miles south of Knoxville. . Precip rates increased but 00z didn't have the warm tongue at 925 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said: Wow, it’s funny how different the criteria is for warnings in different parts of the country. Down here, 2-4 is WSW criteria, lol. Here it seems to be 4 inches in a 12 hour period or 6 in a 24 hour period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 20 minutes ago, John1122 said: Currently the 850 is 80-100 miles south of the NAM/3K/FV3/GFS/CMC/RGEM Euro actually moved the 850 line 75 miles or so to the south at startup (6hr), but moved it right where it was on the 00z in next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 850s have dropped further south at the top of the hour update. The 0 degree line is now S of Nashville I believe and it's touching the Hamilton County line. -1 over the Northern Plateau and Valley. Also notable if Arkansas is seeing snow. the 850 line is barely into northern Arkansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 If the 12z model suite doesn't get the blood pumping, nothing will. That does it for the Euro and CMC in terms of tracking the event. When they run again, the event will be under way. No idea if they verify. I have been doing this for a long time. I am pretty sure that is the biggest "last run" that I have seen for NE TN. You always want to see totals increasing as you approach an event or at least within the same range. I will have to see it to believe it...but those numbers, even if halved, are a pretty significant event on the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Like Blunderstorm I’m fairly confident that the northern edge will make it to Bluefield. That is if the 3k NAM/RGEM are correct. That’s a very good combo to have on your side. You will also be 100% snow and will have true 10/1 ratios. I would be concerned with snow dropping off 77 toward Beckley. I would love to see pictures of the tunnels in Bluefield and Bland, VA with a big snow. I’ve done some work in those tunnels this year. Have we seen a bigger close for our area than that 12z suite? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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