John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I fully expect the WFO to pretty much ride the GFS. JKL is doing it already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Ratio'd map. Either the most of the models are all going to bust like nobodies business or the WFO that roll with the GFS as their primary tool are. JKL is giving 1-2 inches for their TN border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The 6z NAM outdid itself. We know it can have a tendency to overdue things. But that is just a massive run.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 The 6z 3k NAM is impressive as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 3k NAM was nice but not as crazy as the 12k. Above 3000 feet in my area got ratio'd at 28 inches again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for the Tri-Cities and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 6z 3k vs 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Winter weather advisory issued for Most of West Tn as well as my county. Calling for a glaze of ice and up to an inch of the good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 38 minutes ago, John1122 said: I fully expect the WFO to pretty much ride the GFS. JKL is doing it already. Yep, rode the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 MRX rolls with a mostly GFS based forecast as does JKL. Not a big surprise I guess. Last situation like this when I got a WWA we ended up with 8-10 inches of snow across the area. No clear idea why they do it that way, WPC has been very much saying the GFS wasn't being used in their products because it's a major outlier. The GFS is by far the driest model. The others all have 1.25-2.00 inches over all of the area. GFS has something like .75 in the northern parts of the forum. Yet for reasons beyond me they say the 00z NAM is the outlier QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 12 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Sleet/snow mix has begun in WB. Sticking to ground from what I can tell. Radar looks to be filling in nicely there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Flash, you're probably going to pick up an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Raining here in Athens. Hoping we can get at least some accumulating snow, but I’m not getting my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 This is from the WPC regarding the Southern Apps and the GFS vs the other models. Quote The GFS is quick to pull out of the area, resulting in less QPF. Meanwhile, the rest of the guidance shows an axis of heavier QPF generally in the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, McMinnWx said: Raining here in Athens. Hoping we can get at least some accumulating snow, but I’m not getting my hopes up. Lol, I'm just trying to find a snowflake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: This is from the WPC regarding the Southern Apps and the GFS vs the other models. You would think they would have pulled at least a WWA for north of 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McMinnWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, TellicoWx said: Lol, I'm just trying to find a snowflake. Lol co-sign. I’ve got family up in Coker Creek and Turkey Creek (the REAL Turkey Creek haha). I imagine they’ll see some, if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 1 minute ago, *Flash* said: I’m threading a huge line right now. About a quarter inch already. Decent rates. Down in Fairview it’s atill raining. Awesome dude! I’m on the cusp of moisture here in Blount county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nash_LSU Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Currently mostly light rain with a few snowflakes mixed in here in southern Davidson. MBY temp is 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 7 minutes ago, Nash_LSU said: Currently mostly light rain with a few snowflakes mixed in here in southern Davidson. MBY temp is 34. Odd,it's snowing in NE Williamson at my house 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 I have been so busy looking at most I haven’t looked at what is actually going on. Is this precipitation way ahead of schedule?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Yeah, seems like it's a bit early to me. Will be interesting to see how fat north in E TN it gets this AM. From about Jeff City on up temps and dewpoints look snowy. Saw that Hurricane Tracker, a Met in the SE forum for the NC mountains area, was saying that the High is verifying at 1039 mbs, higher than any guidance. Here in Knoxville near downtown nothing hitting the ground yet, but looks like snow may be up at the top if the towers on Sharp's Ridge. Hearing there is acc. snow in Crossville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Just now, *Flash* said: Btw sorry I’m having massive issues trying to attach pics today. Didn’t mean to upload my kids with Santa. I dont think anyone cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 Definitely rain at my house in Knoxville now, but if my ever reliable car thermometer can be believed, it's around 37. I can see snow falling about 1/3 of the way down the tallest radio tower on Sharp's ridge. Based on the height of that tower + Sharp's ridge, that puts the snow at this time in Knoxville at around 2200-2300 feet. I feel like if we just got a really heavy burst that might come down for a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 So the 6z GFS is now moving to the Euro solution it appears. Been trending that way for several runs. Not there yet, but trending that way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: So the 6z GFS is now moving to the Euro solution it appears. Been trending that way for several runs. Not there yet, but trending that way. Looks like it’s going to be an interesting day to say the least, it’s probably a blessing that this system is coming thru on a weekend instead of the work week. I’m rooting for everybody today, I hope we all can pull out Some snow accumulation the next 2 days!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 So glad to see you guys getting snow. I have a feeling this storm is going to be one to remember. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 Hr27 12z NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastTNWeatherAdmirer Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 It’s the clash of the titans in terms of weather models and NWS. With no Winter Weather Advisory or any winter precipitation related alert Southwest down the valley from Hawkins County, touching VA by the way. Euro, Fv3 GFS, NAM, RGEM, CMC, and somewhat the op GFS all in somewhat agreence there will be light to moderate snow accumulations Sunday Morning and into the afternoon as NWS isn’t buyin those ideas for Central/NE valley. For now, light snow, sleet and rain, in the Southern and central valley will continue on and off throughout the day as very dry and chilly air encompasses the area...for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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