Save the itchy algae! Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm just going to bed tonight pretending that the GFS isn't a thing, and that the overnight Euro will take care of us all... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 CMC is a crush job for NE TN. Not sure what happened w the GFS...it was flat from the get go. I have noticed that both model runs seem a tad colder. The CMC had a 1 mb stronger high at one point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Cmc is better west on this run, almost carbon copy east from the 12z, a hair better on 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Bango said: Cmc is better west on this run, almost carbon copy east from the 12z, a hair better on 0z It was good for a lot of areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, EastKnox said: I wonder how much of that is ZR? It's mostly freezing rain in North Middle and Northwest Tennessee and Southern Ky. Scott County probably gets the worst weather of anyone in the state if that run were to verify. 8 inches of snow even ratio adjusted and .58 freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 It's shocking to see it showing this stuff within short range model territory. Everything is still on the table for NE TN and SW VA from a whiff to being plastered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 CMC totals: The money shot: No ZR/IP to speak of. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 That GFS run was colder at the surface as the storm passed...by a degree or two. The high over the top just pressed more. You could see if from the beginning of the run if you use the toggle feature on TT. I will be surprised if this storm is not mostly frozen for NE TN and SW VA and SE KY. I could easily be wrong. I did call for the last week of November to be warm...and we know how that turned out. I think I got two dustings of snow. LOL. So take it for what its worth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 0z CMC clown map. Pretty consistent from 12z. Actually ticked up qpf just a little bit from 12z run. I really think the GFS is off of its rocker. WPC had mentioned that it was being to progressive with the 500mb shortwave compared to Euro. This run was very progressive. The CMC/Euro/NAM/FV3(0z not out yet) have all been extremely consistent compared to the GFS. That run was so different I’m going to classify it as a pretty good outlier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 One thing I am looking for for east tn is the redevelopment as the storm leaves the east coast. I could be wrong but i think the icon showed it in the last run, and the cmc really develops it, to make for a super long duration event for mid to east tn. Seems like all the models had it a few days ago and lost it when the models were running the storm due east quickly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Unless I am reading Tropical Tidbits incorrectly, hours 42-60 are colder. In some cases more than a degree or two colder. I use temps benchmark in SE KY and whichever benchmark is over the Grayson Highlands. Those usually tell me if how the run will look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The GFS gave me .36 freezing rain and a dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, John1122 said: The GFS gave me .36 freezing rain and a dusting of snow. It’s definitely and outlier at this stage...when does the RGEM run next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Reb said: It’s definitely and outlier at this stage...when does the RGEM run next? Between 3 and 4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Time for the Euro and FV3 to slide in and cave ruining our hopes and dreams with the GFS standing triumphantly along side the all seeing ICON. In all seriousness though ...PLEASE DON'T CAVE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The ratios on the Canadian are insane. 3:1 over Knox during a heavy snow burst at hour 66. The best on there for our forum area looks like 7:1 in extreme NE Tn/SWVA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The 0z F3 is sporadically spitting out times. The snow totals are going to be nuts on Tropical Tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The FV3 replaces the current GFS next month from what I understand. We're either going to find out it's better than the GFS or find out about it's biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Skipping panels on v3, but i like the fact the duration of this event is getting longer across multiple models tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'd obviously much rather have a period of sleet than freezing rain. Dave Dierks @WCYB seems confident in 4-6 inches of snow for the Bristol area now but I do not want a period of freezing rain mixing in under that. Would mean damage to to grid and power outages galore. Of course, there is also the possibility that the 920 - 850 mb nose doesn't make it NE of Morristown/Greeneville. That would mean KTRI and Abingdon getting crushed with significant heavy wet snow and outages regardless. I have bought into around 7 inches of heavy wet snow at this point for my location. I noticed the NAM crushes us but I just want to see if tonight's Euro stays in play. 36-48 hrs, we're getting into crunch time folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 What time is the Euro running? I think I am going to gut it out and stay up....Like 12:50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: What time is the Euro running? I think I am going to gut it out and stay up....Like 12:50? Yeah, seems like I finish around 1:20 a.m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What time is the Euro running? I think I am going to gut it out and stay up....Like 12:50? 1:00 AM and about 20 minutes or so to figure out how this goes. Of course that's on free weather.us. Speaking of the storm I'm still feeling a bit uneasy in terms of suppression and warm layers. It's seem too good to be true but the solution is supported so I must follow it. I think if everything goes without any unforeseen tricks that knock down snow accumulation (which I'm still 50-50 on) 10 in of heavy wet snow will fall IMBY when all is said and done. As a forecaster I would mark it... 6-10 in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: What time is the Euro running? I think I am going to gut it out and stay up....Like 12:50? The Euro will run out to 84 by around 1:15-1:30 most likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Any bets the Euro finishes before the FV3? Colder trends tonight are good. Precip shield should be robust throughout TN. If not, I’d be shocked! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just saw the post comparing the FV3 on November 29th to the run just now. It is almost identical from 9 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, tnweathernut said: Any bets the Euro finishes before the FV3? Colder trends tonight are good. Precip shield should be robust throughout TN. If not, I’d be shocked! I was just about to comment that the Euro will still finish before the FV3. I swear someone is messing with all of us on the FV3 and it will run at normal speed after this storm passes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The FV3 has two waves of snow. Heavy rain switches to heavy snow from the Plateau east towards Tri by hr 60 and it's extremely heavy snow. It moves out and another wave moves into Tennessee by 78, heavy snow around BNA at that point. Heavy snow in East Tennessee by 84 then it slowly winds down from the Plateau eastward over the next 12 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Any bets the Euro finishes before the FV3? Colder trends tonight are good. Precip shield should be robust throughout TN. If not, I’d be shocked! Just switched it over to the radar version on Tropical TT...was able to catch the entire storm. You can get out to about 210 on that. Interesting to see that extra little bout of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bango Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Guessing freakish amounts, if the hour 66 "snow" maps are believed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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