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December 8-10 Storm Discussion


Holston_River_Rambler
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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Welcome! As things stand now, you are well placed for this one! 

 

3 minutes ago, Mountian Man said:

Hello everybody I’m been lurking for a long time. I live in the mountains of southern Wv. I love this forum. 

Climatically your better off than all of us. We have quite the storm coming up and you could be standing at ground zero. Welcome to the Tennessee Valley it's nice to see someone to the northeast of Honaker. 

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Just now, BlunderStorm said:

 

Climatically your better off than all of us. We have quite the storm coming up and you could be standing at ground zero. Welcome to the Tennessee Valley it's nice to see someone to the northeast of Honaker. 

Thank you. The biggest snow I’ve seen in my 56 years was the super storm. We had 42 in

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Some subtle but maybe important differences between the energy on the RGEM and the NAM.  RGEM seems to like a more consolidated "bowling ball" type look at H5, while the NAM seems more strung out with the energy from North to South. These little differences can amplify as we go through time. 

RGEM at the also end looks like it is a little bit faster with the N stream energy that tries to drop in from Alberta and phase on the big globals. Overall at 54 hours the RGEM is further south with the big ball of energy than the NAM. 

Personally I like that and hope it verifies, because the further south it gets, the more latitude it all has to gain. 

It's a little more positively tilted and flatter than its parent (I think??) the CMC, so hopefully that argues against the more amped miller B transfer types solutions, like the big on the CMC had at 12z. Only goes to hour 54 so these are just big guesses, so take with a salt lick. 

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2 hours ago, caitsaunt said:

I've read every word of this thread, I'm enjoying following the speculation. I have a question about travel, too.  I am driving from Opryland to Chattanooga Sunday morning. I'm mainly worried about Monteagle - any thoughts? 

Most model guidance would suggest it will be too warm for snow on Sunday in southern Tennessee. That said nothing is really set yet so I would keep a sharp eye on the forecasts, models, and forum discussion for the next day or two.

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8 minutes ago, kwolfe904 said:

I’ve been lurking on this forum as well. I live in Lexington, KY and just moved a few months ago from Kansas City area. I know I’m not Southern KY, but this forum is more my area then the Ohio Valley forum. :)

Welcome aboard, It's ok to blur the boundaries a little, Mountain Man is in southern West Virginia and we often get visited by posters in the deep south and Arkansas.

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3 minutes ago, Bango said:

It's amazing how fv3 model consistently "sticks" on the best upcoming panel

It know's everyone is waiting. I'm encouraged to see it laying down the hammer, the WPC thought it was good enough to include in it's superblend of models. The GFS and UKIE are too progressive and open with the wave per WPC.

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1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

 


Oh my. That would be a wax job for most of E Tennessee 


.

Through 102 here is the snow total map from the FV3. I'm convinced something is not correct with the snow map on the FV3, but it looks like it snows through 126 in East TN.

image.thumb.png.26c09038bcd31e58be26f2abaa9d03b4.png

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