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Carvers Gap

Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

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the is more banter in the storm threads of the other place(that banned me but LIE in saying they didnt) than there is banter in the banter threads here......that place is nothing but comic relief with less than 5% of comments based on science in any way

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59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I agree with all points.  If UT can land Wright and Russell in February, he has set a great foundation.  SEC size and speed.  Hey, I ran into a lady who lives near Camp Creek while eating Sunday evening.  Among other things, she basically said half jokingly that everyone gets new lawn furniture(the neighbors) with each mountain wave event...and she even knew the term, mountain wave!  

True, you don’t see a lot of lawn furniture or Christmas decorations in that area.  My family learned our lesson with Christmas decorations the first year we moved to southern Greene Co. We tried to reinforce them, but it still didn’t work.

I think MRX and local TV meteorologists have done a good job in recent years of explaining mountain waves.  When I was a kid, people in that area just referred to it as the “south winds”. At that time, there could be 80+ mph winds in Camp Creek and there wouldn’t even be a Wind Advisory issued.  It is such a localized event and there wasn't a wind tower yet, so MRX didn't even know about it.

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While reading an article about the shutdown effecting accuracy of the current weather forecasts, I came across this article talking about a new IBM weather model they claim is 200 percent more accurate than others. I'm not sure if it is something that is/will be available to the public or what.

Quote

IBM has figured out a way to improve the way we predict the weather.

The company’s ability to provide better forecasts worldwide will be highlighted by IBM CEO Ginni Rometty when she delivers the keynote address at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show on Tuesday. The Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System, or GRAF, will use IBM supercomputers to aggregate data from millions of sources, including the smartphones of Weather Channel app users (on an opt-in basis), to more-accurately predict the weather. GRAF will be rolled out later this year.

The company, which owns The Weather Channel, has its own interests in improving forecasting, but Rometty reminded USA Today that IBM is also involved in more day-to-day transactions than consumers typically realize: “Your ATM doesn’t work without us, you can’t get an airline ticket without us, you cannot charge your car through your gas without us, you (won’t have a) supply at Walmart without us. We really are underneath almost all of it.”

The new tool will have implications for businesses and consumers alike, especially in regions where accurate, reliable, and up-to-date weather forecasts are not available. According to Rometty, adverse weather saw the loss of $500 billion in economic value last year.

The decision to double down on collecting data from consumers’ phones is a bold one for IBM, whose subsidiary The Weather Channel was sued on Friday by the city of Los Angeles for allegedly collecting and selling users’ data under false pretences. The app asks permission to collect data, but informs the user that it’s needed to provide “personalized local weather data, alerts and forecasts,” without mentioning other uses of the data.

Rommety is also expected to highlight IBM’s forays into a cloud-based platform where users can debate an AI, as well as the company’s efforts to be more inclusive.

 

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I posted wondering which would happen first, who knew it'd be a tie?

Cheney is a good coach, we couldn't win games his first time here, but he built a high scoring offense.  Just couldn't stop anyone and lost shoot out games. If Pruitt can build a defense around his offense UT should be much improved in the coming years. 

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14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I posted wondering which would happen first, who knew it'd be a tie?

Cheney is a good coach, we couldn't win games his first time here, but he built a high scoring offense.  Just couldn't stop anyone and lost shoot out games. If Pruitt can build a defense around his offense UT should be much improved in the coming years. 

I was thinking exactly that when posting my comment.  LOL!  Crazy!

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17 hours ago, John1122 said:
While reading an article about the shutdown effecting accuracy of the current weather forecasts, I came across this article talking about a new IBM weather model they claim is 200 percent more accurate than others. I'm not sure if it is something that is/will be available to the public or what.
Quote

IBM has figured out a way to improve the way we predict the weather.

The company’s ability to provide better forecasts worldwide will be highlighted by IBM CEO Ginni Rometty when she delivers the keynote address at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show on Tuesday. The Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System, or GRAF, will use IBM supercomputers to aggregate data from millions of sources, including the smartphones of Weather Channel app users (on an opt-in basis), to more-accurately predict the weather. GRAF will be rolled out later this year.

The company, which owns The Weather Channel, has its own interests in improving forecasting, but Rometty reminded USA Today that IBM is also involved in more day-to-day transactions than consumers typically realize: “Your ATM doesn’t work without us, you can’t get an airline ticket without us, you cannot charge your car through your gas without us, you (won’t have a) supply at Walmart without us. We really are underneath almost all of it.”

The new tool will have implications for businesses and consumers alike, especially in regions where accurate, reliable, and up-to-date weather forecasts are not available. According to Rometty, adverse weather saw the loss of $500 billion in economic value last year.

The decision to double down on collecting data from consumers’ phones is a bold one for IBM, whose subsidiary The Weather Channel was sued on Friday by the city of Los Angeles for allegedly collecting and selling users’ data under false pretences. The app asks permission to collect data, but informs the user that it’s needed to provide “personalized local weather data, alerts and forecasts,” without mentioning other uses of the data.

Rommety is also expected to highlight IBM’s forays into a cloud-based platform where users can debate an AI, as well as the company’s efforts to be more inclusive.

 
There's also this from IBM that came out today:
https://www-engadget-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.engadget.com/amp/2019/01/08/ibm-smartphone-improve-weather-forecasts/?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.engadget.com%2F2019%2F01%2F08%2Fibm-smartphone-improve-weather-forecasts%2F

EDIT TO ADD:  Just noticed it's pretty much the same article.  My fault.  I couldn't read your entire post on my SMART Phone.  
 

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6 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One of the prettiest fantasy runs I've seen in a while:

giphy.gif 

Man That would be an epic storm with some huge totals.  I can only hope this happens at some point this winter.  There does seem to be a signal for a storm on several models for this time frame.

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We gotta get some cold air in here. I walked outside this morning and thought man...it's chilly. Looked at the temp and it was 37. It is January 9 and 37 felt chilly. I'm over these marginal "will it, won't it" set ups. 

What happened to clippers making to the TN valley? High of 28, low of 17 and 2-4" statewide, more in the mts. It seems like you used to be able to get one per winter or very other winter, even if you got nothing else. 

Starting to think that Huntsville needs to be getting snow, or at least s. central TN  before I even pay attention. 

On a positive note it has been a beautiful week. Thankful for clear skies and dry weather for a bit. 

 

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I concur with Holston. Need areas to our south to be involved on future threats for that all-important northward shift insurance. I shared this in another forum yesterday, but the more I think about it, the more I think this system helps our LR changes. I know with the December storm, we talked a bit about how significant storms can occur when patterns are changing (think of the 1/13-15 storm as the antithesis...the other bookend to the 12/9 storm). That said, one could say this type of timed disturbance can act like a  'service storm' (like a service horse leading a racehorse to the starting line). Another words, coming out of a mild pattern, one shouldn't expect the first storm out of the gate to get the job done at our latitude. Usually you need one storm to help enforce the new, cooler pattern with the subsequent systems bringing in the $$$. Some fresh perspective in case anyone needs it...

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Watching Tennessee hammer Missouri on their own floor was even more beautiful than those fantasy runs. Can't stand Mizzou!

Auburn opens conference play on the road tonight. Good luck @jaxjagman !

Kansas hosts TCU tonight. KU has lifted the redshirt for Agbaji. TCU at home should be a low-risk test, except for how poorly we played last game...

Regarding the GFS Para FV3, apparently the GFS Op is getting more attention with the data issue. Probably favor GFS Op over new one. ECMWF still most favored of course.

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The whole Cuonzo mess makes me want to beat Missouri almost as much as Kentucky these days.  Especially the sports writers who proclaimed UT basketball dead.  The fact was Cuonzo was offered a 500k raise and still left. He's never stayed anywhere more than 3 years yet. 

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The d10 Euro (yep, I am in banter with this), bout to drive Holston's cold air home w a stalled piece of energy hanging back over Louisiana.  Might be one of my favorite storm set-ups.  Prob won't work that way...but several models showing some big hitters after d10.

Basketball...Alexander has been huge with his rebounding.  The lane is his.  That guy can ball.

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1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

One of the prettiest fantasy runs I've seen in a while:

giphy.gif 

This would be a great birthday with for me.  My birthday is Jan 25th.  When I was a child, my parents asked what I wanted for my birthday and my answer was always... "a big snowstorm."  We got a decent snow one time on my birthday...I had the chicken pox and wasn't allowed to go play in it.

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Nothing of any observational or speculative value. I am really hoping this storm comes in low and the dry slot is overblown at the onset of the storm. As of now in order here it looks like snow showers early Saturday morning before it dries out and remains overcast for the rest of the morning and afternoon. Maybe I record a few tenths of an inch. This is followed by precipitation filling in again during the evening starting as a mix and transitioning to rain by midnight. Sunday is entirely characterized by steady temps in the mid 30's with rain showers and a lot of cursing the sky. (lol) Just as things begin to dry out early on Monday a few snow showers pass by with lingering flurries up until noon on Monday amounting to a dusting. Eh, I'll take it.

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Son has a gymnastics meet in Chicago next weekend.Leaving Thursday, looks like a good system coming through next weekend,hopefully i  can see some snow.This will be the 3rd straight year going there,last year just saw some flakes,two years ago we walked around the zoo without a jacket,maybe three years will be a charm?

 

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59 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I can't remember the last time I was so nervous about a football game. Go Chiefs!

We may be offering virtual snow chasing on TV at Arrowhead too.

This should be the best game of the weekend.The Colts are 10-1 the last 11 games after a poor start.KC don't need to the Colts to get off to a fast start and take the crowd out of the game,Arrowhead is by far the loudest of all stadiums.Good luck,Jeff !!

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20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Then 18z GFS ups the ante.

giphy.gif

18z Jan 22 prefrontal snow in the TN Valley from, for all intents and purpose, a lakes cutter.

Will we see even wilder fantasy runs in the coming days? I think so.

There is some frigid air being shown on that 18z too. 

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