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Carvers Gap

Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019

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Topic starter must have deleted it. I don't have any control over that unfortunately......smh

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1 minute ago, Mr Bob said:

Topic starter must have deleted it. I don't have any control over that unfortunately......smh

#petty.  Would recommend that person not be able to start future threads.

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@AMZ8990 started it according to the January thread.  I can't see him deleting a thread on purpose.  Maybe was trying to rename it and hit the wrong button.  I have tagged him, so let's see what he says.  He doesn't seem like someone that would do that on purpose.

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3 minutes ago, RawCrabMeat said:

2" grass measurement in Maryville

Great...did you get any snow? :guitar:

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16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I agree. 

And even if he did, I would still welcome him back.  LOL.  He is a great poster.  I do miss the gifs, though, from that thread.  Glad to see some areas that have not had snow getting some.  

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Definitely cannot delete threads on purpose. The record of the event is important in science. That said I totally agree, they are always welcome here. People make mistakes. We forgive and forge ahead.

Thank you for all the reports. Love the title of the report thread, lol! 

Kansas plays at Texas tonight. Should be a tough road game. Really need a win on Kansas Day. Jan. 29, 1861 Kansas became a State. I know, pretty young compared to Tennessee!

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47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@AMZ8990 started it according to the January thread.  I can't see him deleting a thread on purpose.  Maybe was trying to rename it and hit the wrong button.  I have tagged him, so let's see what he says.  He doesn't seem like someone that would do that on purpose.

 

23 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

And even if he did, I would still welcome him back.  LOL.  He is a great poster.  I do miss the gifs, though, from that thread.  Glad to see some areas that have not had snow getting some.  

  It’s my fault we lost the thread guys/gals, I sincerely apologize.  I went to edit the keywords for the thread and somehow I managed to delete the entire thread instead of just editing the keywords for it.   I tried to refresh my browser and go back but by then the server told me I could not access the threads data anymore.  I feel like crap guys, this is my bad.

 

AMZ

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Put a note to the admins to see if it can be recovered....but they could take days to respond....:rolleyes:

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10 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

 

  It’s my fault we lost the thread guys/gals, I sincerely apologize.  I went to edit the keywords for the thread and somehow I managed to delete the entire thread instead of just editing the keywords for it.   I tried to refresh my browser and go back but by then the server told me I could not access the threads data anymore.  I feel like crap guys, this is my bad.

 

AMZ

You are good people AMZ. Don't feel bad, things happen, so no worries.  

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12 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

 

  It’s my fault we lost the thread guys/gals, I sincerely apologize.  I went to edit the keywords for the thread and somehow I managed to delete the entire thread instead of just editing the keywords for it.   I tried to refresh my browser and go back but by then the server told me I could not access the threads data anymore.  I feel like crap guys, this is my bad.

 

AMZ

No hard feelings about it.

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No problem. Accidents happen. Don't feel bad.

Most of us want to forget this event anyway, lol!

Congratulations to those squeezing out some snow. Enjoy!

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14 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

 

  It’s my fault we lost the thread guys/gals, I sincerely apologize.  I went to edit the keywords for the thread and somehow I managed to delete the entire thread instead of just editing the keywords for it.   I tried to refresh my browser and go back but by then the server told me I could not access the threads data anymore.  I feel like crap guys, this is my bad.

 

AMZ

No worries, AMZ.  LOL.  But you know, in the future when you see they guys from Maryville starting a storm thread for a nearly certain, historic storm for Hardeman Co...probably should save some screen shots.  Just kidding of course...  But hey, maybe it was reverse mojo...deleting the storm thread equals bigger storm.  LOL.

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4 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

No worries, AMZ.  LOL.  But you know, in the future when you see they guys from Maryville starting a storm thread for a nearly certain, historic storm for Hardeman Co...probably should save some screen shots.  Just kidding of course...  But hey, maybe it was reverse mojo...deleting the storm thread equals bigger storm.  LOL.

Haha, so true though.  I’m gonna have to watch my back next time I come up to Knoxville for a football or basketball game.  Lol.  I sent a message to the admins about the thread so hopefully they can retrieve it   for us somehow and we can have all those pics, gifs, and data back to look through. 

 

Edit- I just saw where the thread was back up so I have been saved by the AMWX gods I reckon!!  Now I can leave my bulletproof jacket at home next time I come to Knoxville. :)

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Just my own personal observation here but so amazing that we have all these fancy weather models and hi-tech tools in 2019, and man is no closer to being able to determine precisely what , when, or exactly where the weather will be. Only the Creator knows what the future holds. At 5 p.m. it was still 31 degrees and not even a complete dusting and 2 days ago we were under a Winter Storm Watch. Failure to launch in NE TN valley.

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1 hour ago, Icy Hot said:

Just my own personal observation here but so amazing that we have all these fancy weather models and hi-tech tools in 2019, and man is no closer to being able to determine precisely what , when, or exactly where the weather will be. Only the Creator knows what the future holds. At 5 p.m. it was still 31 degrees and not even a complete dusting and 2 days ago we were under a Winter Storm Watch. Failure to launch in NE TN valley.

Geography.  This area is very hard to mathematically sort out variables that determine if the exact timing, precip amounts, and temps that produce borderline rain or snow.  Couple that with the fact that climate is changing and historical patterns can't be relied on as heavily as they once were and it's just a tough thing to predict here.  Models are friggin fantastic at predicting snow in many/most other areas, especially higher latitudes where these variables aren't a marginal.  It's frustrating, but that's just the reality we live in here in the mid south.  Best to just take it in stride and find humor in it I say.

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Glad they found the missing thread. Our next step would have been to ask the NSA. They have everything!

The model (NWP) struggles offer humans job security. Chattanooga whiff is always an easy call for the human.

Seriously, Stove is right. Statistical NWP methods work great until the sample size is small. Snow in the South is a small sample size. Add the shifting climate, and the sample size is even smaller and/or historical samples are no longer valid. NWP is much better when the weather is closer to normal, with a nice sample size.

In college hoops, Tennessee looks solid and continues to improve. Meanwhile Kansas is lost without Azubuike. Coach cannot find the right adjustment. Looks like our streak of Big 12 titles is over. Thankfully I'm having fun following Tennessee!

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I get the difficulty modeling for an area as unfavorable (for snow) as ours is;  latitude, geography, microclimates, etc. but it seems to me that most modeling, most of the time, misses even the bigger factors for our area.  How many times a winter do we see situations like yesterday where even the major factors are miss-modeled or even flat out missed over time?  Gulf connection, L pressure location, L pressure formation, speed of air mass, etc. etc..  Fascinating to me to watch the evolution of each storm and to watch us (and by us I mean those of you with so much more understanding then myself!) combine modeling with expertise/knowledge to arrive at a sensible forecast.  Grateful to all of you here who have the knowledge and understanding, and the willingness to share it, to at least allow me to stand on the sidelines and observe your input and thoughts.  Thanks to all of you!

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