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Winter 'Tis the Season Banter Thread 2018-2019


Carvers Gap
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18 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Happy New Years !!You know when your kids are getting old and you're getting older when you tell them i'm gonna buy some fireworks and we'll set them off ,then yours kids say, why?...sigh.. :( I miss my younger bunch.

  Next time you just have to say “come outside I’ve got something cool to show you”, maybe that will get their attention.  Lol.  I know it’s tough as they get older though, happy new year to you too buddy.

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please help me understand something, when posters in these type forums say what do we "do" about this model run, or you killed this storm, or what will we do to mess this storm up?

i am 67 and never considered that i need to "do" anything for the weather to happen, or that i could "do" anything to alter what the weather will be, so my question is what are people saying with those type posts? do they think the weather cares or changes based on things posted?

a great example was just posted by an administrator elsewhere...."So you’re saying with the gfs , cmc , FV3 and the ensembles that weather needs can’t find something good on them every single day ?"

does the weather "need" anything from any model to happen???

 

 

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1 hour ago, BillT said:

please help me understand something, when posters in these type forums say what do we "do" about this model run, or you killed this storm, or what will we do to mess this storm up?

i am 67 and never considered that i need to "do" anything for the weather to happen, or that i could "do" anything to alter what the weather will be, so my question is what are people saying with those type posts? do they think the weather cares or changes based on things posted?

a great example was just posted by an administrator elsewhere...."So you’re saying with the gfs , cmc , FV3 and the ensembles that weather needs can’t find something good on them every single day ?"

does the weather "need" anything from any model to happen???

 

I always think of it as personification and hyperbole.   

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5 hours ago, Stovepipe said:

35' drifts and 70+mph winds.  Incredible storm. 

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2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Any Kingsport people hear a big boom? Seeing some people up that way talk about a BAE explosion. I grew up across from then Holston Defense, so some booms were common, but just curious if this one was bigger. 

Yes, there was a BAE fire this morning.  Instead of trying to extinguish they thought the best plan of action was to initiate a controlled burn.  There were explosives in the building and the loud booms are those explosives discharging.  They have been felt all over northeast TN and into SW Va (as far as Abington).  They say the scene is secure and there have been no injuries to this point.  I know many employees have been (and are continuing) to leave the area.

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20 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah finally able to get on the phone with my parents. They live just across the river from BAE. We would hear some booms sometimes, but my mom said this one sounded like it came from our backyard and knocked objects off windows and shook the house. 

Yeah...it was crazy loud.  We could see the fire from the next ridge over.  Not the normal stuff.  Newspaper says there may be more. A worker was taken for observation this AM.  Evidently the fire had been in progress for some time.  Some folks I know on the river heard the internal plant sirens this morning which is not uncommon.   It would be nice if they would let folks know when they have a problem like that.  Looks like the “process upset” occurred on the backside of the plant.  Probably the only thing that prevented significant home damage.  We headed out to eat Mexican for lunch on the other side of town.  Will head back and check the house a little more closely in a few.  

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Looks like the fire is ongoing.  From what I understand(and it make sense), if you can still see smoke then more of it might cook off.  Holston, I suspect I don't live too far from your family.  Our house looks good.  I am not hearing of any homes that are damaged.  I did get confirmation that the plant was indeed clear before the explosion. I can smell the stuff outside.  Thankfully folks appear to be OK...lot of force from that blast to be dispersed or absorbed.    

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3 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I have to say I'm starting to worry about this season...

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

The 12z suite has been really(better than) good...just nobody talking about it yet in this sub forum.   The EPS has the pattern flip now.  Huge improvements today.  I think all of us have been snake bit though.

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6 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

I have to say I'm starting to worry about this season...

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Pretty much all models and ensembles have the reversal today.  Some questions remain regarding source regions, etc.  If the Weeklies are to be believed the worst of the cold will eventually be NA(off the top of my head).

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Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Been busy and not able to keep up much this PM, but I took a quick look and saw that GFS post in the main thread and I was like: "what does it mean??!!!" "Have we finally had the dreaded 'Now the GFS and Euro have switched' event"? 

The operational model wet the bed at the end of the run, but the ensembles (EPS, GEFS, & GEPS) look great........  (i.e. all the yellows, oranges, & blues in the right places)

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