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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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8 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I’m not liking the shift south for us folks in NW NC and S Va. if the Euro shifts south imma gonna be very concerned! Until then I’ll hug the CMC emoji4.png


.

Eh, I think we'll like the outcome of the FV3 actually. It has a very long duration event.

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

GEFS mean snowfall came south again, and put slightly higher totals in western NC around Asheville and surrounding areas.

Do you happen to have a map on the totals? I know they are fantasy, but I want to see these #'s and compare to Wow's post earlier, where he took a compilation of all of the runs. Heck...it is nice to dream a little dream anyways. LOL. Thank you in advance. 

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13 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I’m not liking the shift south for us folks in NW NC and S Va. if the Euro shifts south imma gonna be very concerned! Until then I’ll hug the CMC emoji4.png


.

We are still in good shape easily 8-12 maybe towards 14 inches. Even with the bump south. :) Brad P even said areas in the Foothills and Mountains could see local 20 inch amounts :P

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3 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

We are still in good shape easily 8-12 maybe towards 14 inches. Even with the bump south. :) Brad P even said areas in the Foothills and Mountains could see local 20 inch amounts :P

You are a good bit SW of me, much closer to the moisture! 

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1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:

You are a good bit SW of me, much closer to the moisture! 

My bad for some reason I thought you was down in Rutherford county below me.

Edit: Still think we are both fine unless something drastic happens in our 48 hour less window before go time.

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25 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

I’m not liking the shift south for us folks in NW NC and S Va. if the Euro shifts south imma gonna be very concerned! Until then I’ll hug the CMC emoji4.png

There's the post we've been looking for.  Nice!  Straight up, I love where you are located with this one (as usual).  Precip is going to be farther north than currently shown IMO even if the track is the same...and you have better ratios there...just wait it out

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12 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Do you happen to have a map on the totals? I know they are fantasy, but I want to see these #'s and compare to Wow's post earlier, where he took a compilation of all of the runs. Heck...it is nice to dream a little dream anyways. LOL. Thank you in advance. 

I'm viewing on WxBell so I'm not sure about the rules on me sharing that but I will say for your location your mean is probably around a foot maybe a little more on that run. Compare that to the last run where it was probably 9 or so and then even better if you consider how far north the 12z run went when that areas mean dropped all the way to around 5-6. So a pretty substatial trend south over the last 2 GEFS runs.

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Just now, SnowDawg said:

I'm viewing on WxBell so I'm not sure about the rules on me sharing that but I will say for your location your mean is probably around a foot maybe a little more on that run. Compare that to the last run where it was probably 9 or so and then even better if you consider how far north the 12z run went when that areas mean dropped all the way to around 5-6. So a pretty substatial trend south over the last 2 GEFS runs.

Thank you so much! I really appreciate that. This is what I was THINKING on the mean. This sounds awesome and hoping it is a trend that will stick. For it to show in this timeframe is great. I know from tracking storms from WWB and since the inception of American Weather, I have seen CAD perform colder than progged, I am feeling this in my gut for this system. Thanks again and good luck! 

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You can see that trend south here but the resolution isn't as high as it is on WxBell so the details are a little off in places such as the higher totals near the escarpment that are apparent on the other site. 

1257747005_gefs_snod.conus.trend(1).gif.afb8c2426eb6d546fda3e3028488d2e7.gif

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10 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Burger showing up for a PBP tonight?

I corresponded with Burger this morning and he told me to pass along to everyone that he would be tied up, but he wished he could. He will check back in ASAP. 

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Just now, Rankin5150 said:

I corresponded with Burger this morning and he told me to pass along to everyone that he would be tied up, but he wished he could. He will check back in ASAP. 

Then Grit better deliver the BOOM!!

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11 minutes ago, griteater said:

That's a long event

ocb8QZC.gif

Grit, 

Correct me if I am wrong, but we are on the cusp of a DOOZY of a storm for our areas, if this verifies. I mean...this is a long duration with more snow than mixing. Correct? I also notice the other Models starting to move in the direction of the FV3-GFS. No? Thank you for putting this together. Looks awesome! 

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