Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,393
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NW_of_GYX
    Newest Member
    NW_of_GYX
    Joined
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

11 minutes ago, Bamabuilder86 said:

How do y’all think I-40 will be on Monday in terms of travel? Obviously this could be a huge storm but how well is it usually handled? I need to be traveling west on I-40 Monday morning from black mountain 

Good chance i40 gets shut down at some point  atleast from Asheville to Statesville

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Really trending colder then

Wouldn't say that. It's just the first mid range model to come in range and it actually handles CAD well. The globals don't and may not until go time, if then. But for some reason Tarheelprogrammar88 is worried about them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Not according to Farheelprogramner88! Everything is warmer

I only speak the truth though. GFS FV3 is warmer at 850 mb. Overall, low is further south, high is weaker, and temps aloft are warmer. Who is ready for some cold rain? Western NC still has a good chance for snow and I am rooting for them. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That is ridiculous! Especially based on the PBP, weaker highs, big North shifts and I still got 20+ inches! I love the new GFS!

And hey we get more Monday! Can't wait for my roof to fall in!:axe:

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
49 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

I really really hope this storm is as great as many models show, but a word of caution, especially for those around 85 in NC.  Enjoy the model runs but don’t live and die by them.  Read the thread below and temper expectations.  Better to be pleasantly surprised if the totals are close.  

The pic and thread are from the Jan 17 storm that was a big bust.  Not saying these storms are the same, just that the cutoff line and WAA are notoriously hard for models to get right.  Union county was looking great the morning before the storm and we got shafted.  QPF was also way overdone by the models  

Its easy for most of us and myself to get wrapped up in these models but this is a tough area even for short range models to get right.

Hopefully this doesn’t repeat itself with this storm though!!

 

2D003D9A-B2D6-421A-978A-3E9DBD4EF375.png

This is why I ALWAYS get more excited when we have overrunning with shortwaves dropping down to provide some ULL action. I am curious if anyone has any data on how much the areas OUTSIDE of the mountains have fared with Miller A storms? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some of these clown maps are so confusing.

And how about that FV-3 map, depicting at least 1 foot (most places more) from RDU to CLT, across to Asheville, to the Triad, up to Danville? Has that ever happened before across a wide area across the state?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.

I am just looking at the setup. I think it is important to remember that with most storms here in the south we will always have some WAA. It's a matter of where it sets up... that determines who is happy and who is sad. It just turns out that most of the time ( not all of time ) it is I-85. Not saying that is the case this time but I proceed with caution on all storms because of past events. This has burned us too many times to not think it could bust in some places showing huge totals right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not a big fan of this map projection, but trend loop here for the backside northern stream wave dropping in.  You can see the NE trough is trending southwest (more confluence) and the western ridge is taller....essentially the flow is getting a little more blocked up and more amplified, forcing the wave to drop into the trough.  The southern wave is trending a little less amplified as well, so it's not as close to the coast.  Who knows where we go from here though - could easily trend back the other way over the next few days

HR8XS98.gif

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

FV3 still looks great, especially if you consider that its a global and likely doesn't have a handle on the CAD yet. It's not quite the 18z run for those to the south but lets be honest that was a bit of an outlier to this point. Some of you are taking very small changes in single model runs and calling them trends, while ignoring the fact that all the models have been trending colder for like the previous days worth of runs.

Yeah. I'll take 20 inches of snow instead of the amount of ice that could come further south down your way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×