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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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2 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Having a hard time stomaching "much less/lighter" for a model run that still shows a foot of snow for referenced areas. 

Cut back on QPF by about a half inch in most of NC compared to 12z, SC still on par with widespread >2" amounts.  

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38 minutes ago, jburns said:

Here's a reason for the difference in GSP and RAL.

GSP

The low subsequently will move across the Southeast
Coastal Plain in a Miller A-type configuration.

RAL

low
tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into
a Miller B configuration 

Sorry, I originally had that backwards.  Fixed now.

Too bad this winter storm can’t be named “Miller”!

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Don't get a chance to drop by too often but saw some ask about Euro snow maps from F5Weather.  Definitely less with the totals further east where there will likely be more mixing issues. Also am attaching UKMET snow which is a more robust with the snow further east.  Also UKMET is a severe ice storm for NEGA, Upstate of SC, and NC in the southern and eastern piedmont. Show over 1" of qpf falling as FZRA in Charlotte.

eurosnow.png

ukmetsnow.png

ukmetice.png

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FV3 definitely didn’t go north at 18z can’t tell about QPF but it’s a good run looks like


.

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2 minutes ago, GreensboroWx said:

Maybe a touch less QPF but I'm only seeing the maps through Monday at 12z....still have the upper low to go by on Monday

 

Do you still that track mid-MS to off ILM?

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Regarding "Our" upcoming "Storm".. 

For those interested, like @tramadoc, this "storm very well could put WILM over 100" of  precip for the year..

Looking for "backside Flurries" @Orangeburgwx for us, No accumulations then back to the 50's & 60"s..

(UNLESS).. MOR Suppression! 

KILM NWS AFD for those interested, this Disco could "help" with Forecasts upstate..

Storm system will affect the local area
this weekend with a potential for periods of moderate to heavy
rain Saturday through Sunday, and lingering through Monday.
Right now we are looking for 2 to 3 inches total over the
weekend, bringing our rainfall total only couple of inches shy
of breaking the 100 inch mark for Wilm.

High pressure will build down into the Carolinas from the north
as potent low pressure system tracks across the Gulf Coast this
weekend. Winds will increase through the low levels on
Saturday, leading to increasing isentropic lift heading through
the weekend with rain spreading northward into the Carolinas on
Sat. Expect periods of potentially moderate to heavier rain Sat
night into sun as the low lifts up along the southeast coast.
Any mixed pcp should remain farther west and north in the cooler
air through the weekend. The current track tracks the low right
up along the southeast, remaining just offshore, bringing the
center just off the Cape Fear coast Sun night.

As it lifts off to the northeast Mon night, shortwave energy
will dig down clouds and pcp will wrap around the back end of
the system as it lifts off to the northeast Mon night. This will
coincide with decent cold air advection and temps should be borderline mainly
west of I-95 for some mixed pcp. Therefore some flurries or
snow showers are not out of the question overnight Mon. Temps
will be moderated by clouds and pcp through much of the period
with overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40 and
day time highs in the 50s. The sharpest temp gradient should
occur Sunday as the low tracks up the coast pulling shallow cool
air down from the north inland and pushing warmer and moister
air onto the coast. Temps may not reach past the 40s west of
I-95 on sun, with temps closer to 60 along the coast. Clearing
should occur through tues in deep cool and dry northerly flow on
the back end of system.

 

That said & posted, I wish all the Upstate Folks the Best of Luck, Post a lot of Pictures! 

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4 minutes ago, UNCCmetgrad said:

Don't get a chance to drop by too often but saw some ask about Euro snow maps from F5Weather.  Definitely less with the totals further east where there will likely be more mixing issues. Also am attaching UKMET snow which is a more robust with the snow further east.  Also UKMET is a severe ice storm for NEGA, Upstate of SC, and NC in the southern and eastern piedmont. Show over 1" of qpf falling as FZRA in Charlotte.

eurosnow.png

ukmetsnow.png

ukmetice.png

 

If I remember right the UKMET runs warm on wedge events at this range so odds are you can pull that ice further southwest if that solution verified 

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel just said either a rain or snow event.  He isn't predicting a lot of mixing or in between.  

i wonder what he's seeing

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Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH
He said below 85 would still get some on the back side, he has those areas around 30% chance of accumulating snow

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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I know this is banter ... but isn't this the time we start hearing about "ground temps won't support accumulation"? Just trying to tick off my winters storm bingo card.

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I'm just really confused right now.  I don't know where the cliff is at the moment, much less jumping from it.  I'm asking pedestrians passing by if they know where it is, but they just keep walking....lol. GSP thinks it's a Miller A (Awesome!), Raleigh says it's going to "evolve" into a Miller B (boo!).  All major models and ensembles have a crushing winter storm for north of CLT.  However models are showing very marginal 850s and surface temps, and monster WAA lurking behind the curtain!.  During the day Sunday looks like it can go to almost 40 degrees.  

Just going to keep riding this emotional roller coaster up and down...from what I can see though, the trends have been good for many on the board today.  I think? 

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH

He usually hypes and fails miserably. I guess he's tired of getting burned.

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7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel just said either a rain or snow event.  He isn't predicting a lot of mixing or in between.  

I've heard a lot of people (mets) say that over the years. And then we mix.

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2 minutes ago, Regan said:

Wow. Not as conservative as I was expecting. Brad Ps 1st call map. 

17FAD9E8-6AA2-4606-8095-399597473FA5.jpeg

That is his snow meter map not his accumulations forecast. 

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH

I wonder if he's being a bit more conservative since he's been burned by over hyping a storm before. 

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