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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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Regarding "Our" upcoming "Storm".. 

For those interested, like @tramadoc, this "storm very well could put WILM over 100" of  precip for the year..

Looking for "backside Flurries" @Orangeburgwx for us, No accumulations then back to the 50's & 60"s..

(UNLESS).. MOR Suppression! 

KILM NWS AFD for those interested, this Disco could "help" with Forecasts upstate..

Storm system will affect the local area
this weekend with a potential for periods of moderate to heavy
rain Saturday through Sunday, and lingering through Monday.
Right now we are looking for 2 to 3 inches total over the
weekend, bringing our rainfall total only couple of inches shy
of breaking the 100 inch mark for Wilm.

High pressure will build down into the Carolinas from the north
as potent low pressure system tracks across the Gulf Coast this
weekend. Winds will increase through the low levels on
Saturday, leading to increasing isentropic lift heading through
the weekend with rain spreading northward into the Carolinas on
Sat. Expect periods of potentially moderate to heavier rain Sat
night into sun as the low lifts up along the southeast coast.
Any mixed pcp should remain farther west and north in the cooler
air through the weekend. The current track tracks the low right
up along the southeast, remaining just offshore, bringing the
center just off the Cape Fear coast Sun night.

As it lifts off to the northeast Mon night, shortwave energy
will dig down clouds and pcp will wrap around the back end of
the system as it lifts off to the northeast Mon night. This will
coincide with decent cold air advection and temps should be borderline mainly
west of I-95 for some mixed pcp. Therefore some flurries or
snow showers are not out of the question overnight Mon. Temps
will be moderated by clouds and pcp through much of the period
with overnight lows generally in the mid 30s to around 40 and
day time highs in the 50s. The sharpest temp gradient should
occur Sunday as the low tracks up the coast pulling shallow cool
air down from the north inland and pushing warmer and moister
air onto the coast. Temps may not reach past the 40s west of
I-95 on sun, with temps closer to 60 along the coast. Clearing
should occur through tues in deep cool and dry northerly flow on
the back end of system.

 

That said & posted, I wish all the Upstate Folks the Best of Luck, Post a lot of Pictures! 

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4 minutes ago, UNCCmetgrad said:

Don't get a chance to drop by too often but saw some ask about Euro snow maps from F5Weather.  Definitely less with the totals further east where there will likely be more mixing issues. Also am attaching UKMET snow which is a more robust with the snow further east.  Also UKMET is a severe ice storm for NEGA, Upstate of SC, and NC in the southern and eastern piedmont. Show over 1" of qpf falling as FZRA in Charlotte.

eurosnow.png

ukmetsnow.png

ukmetice.png

 

If I remember right the UKMET runs warm on wedge events at this range so odds are you can pull that ice further southwest if that solution verified 

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Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH
He said below 85 would still get some on the back side, he has those areas around 30% chance of accumulating snow

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

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I'm just really confused right now.  I don't know where the cliff is at the moment, much less jumping from it.  I'm asking pedestrians passing by if they know where it is, but they just keep walking....lol. GSP thinks it's a Miller A (Awesome!), Raleigh says it's going to "evolve" into a Miller B (boo!).  All major models and ensembles have a crushing winter storm for north of CLT.  However models are showing very marginal 850s and surface temps, and monster WAA lurking behind the curtain!.  During the day Sunday looks like it can go to almost 40 degrees.  

Just going to keep riding this emotional roller coaster up and down...from what I can see though, the trends have been good for many on the board today.  I think? 

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10 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Our local met , CJ , kept harping on 85 and N getting all the snow, while the modeled sim radar behind him, had snow line down to greenwood, for like 8 hours! SMDH

I wonder if he's being a bit more conservative since he's been burned by over hyping a storm before. 

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1 minute ago, gman said:

Chris and John do a great job for our area. Quite frankly, I’m tired of those that say they hype too much and fail often. We re lucky to have these two in the Upstate. 

They live and die by the 85 cutoff and 98% of the time , it’s right. But sometimes storms break the mold! And he did show 1-3” could happen S of 85

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