Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,508
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    kgottwald
    Newest Member
    kgottwald
    Joined
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, griteater said:

This is much more complicated now that the northern stream is getting involved in terms of the timing and location of how the two streams interact and how that affects how much the system wants to climb north....the 12z runs overall went more in the direction of the slider version vs. the version that hits the mid atlantic hard

Yep, this is gonna be a roller coaster as the models start moving the pieces....but hard to ignore Euro, GFS, NAM, UKMet all with some sort of good setup. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Jonathan, your stormvista maps are way ahead of WxBell, how's it look across the border around and west of Martinsville?  I see sleet creeping to the border on WxBell maps.

Still looks good for you as usual. But into Monday and Tuesday if the Euro is to be believed that could be really interesting as a band sets up and just snows and snows and snows. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Just about everything looks great for Durham County 

I just fear it will be more of a sleet fest than indicated out this way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, eyewall said:

I just fear it will be more of a sleet fest than indicated out this way.

Oh I’m totally concerned about that too. 6” and an inch of sleet? It’ll last forever. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ryan1234 said:

Almost as much as I would love to see a historic snow, I would also love to see the Mods really begin to start really hone in on some of these nonsense posts.

I intend to as soon as we reach the time to start a storm thread.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner

Ajj0ItU - Imgur.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I really believe this event has every chance of being the snow equivalent to Florence. 

If things hold, alarms need to start being sounded tomorrow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is huge if it goes down like this, still not sure we're done with changes such a delicate setup with NS energy.

Yl2GDLy.png

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Queencitywx said:

I really believe this event has every chance of being the snow equivalent to Florence. 

If things hold, alarms need to start being sounded tomorrow.

don't jinx it man!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Amos83 said:

One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner

Ajj0ItU - Imgur.png

Yup, seen that finger many times in these events. I wouldn’t be shocked to see timing sped up on this thing. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We’re talking about totals around a lot of western NC that hasn’t been seen in many places since the 93 blizzard. 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, griteater said:

30 inches of clown snow for snowniner

wryJ9js.png

I only get 12-15 while five miles down the road gets almost 24-30 TOSS!!! JK thanks for your input this week it feels like the good ole days with burgar doing pbp.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Amos83 said:

One thing to take note of too, is many times with the super juiced up el nino driven storms precip breaks out way ahead of the main system. UKMET seems to be hinting at it. Notice the finger pointing directly at WSC and WNC. Could mean the precip starts a little sooner

Ajj0ItU - Imgur.png

I’ve seen it come in 8-10 hours early ! Since I think the arrival time was around 4-6 pm around GSP, this would start it in the morning and not have any chance to warm Saturday! Could really help a lot, 2-4 degrees can make a monumental difference!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

We’re talking about totals around a lot of western NC that hasn’t been seen in many places since the 93 blizzard. 

Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase.   Something will throw curveballs.  I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns.  Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, griteater said:

30 inches of clown snow for snowniner

 

Interesting that it's picking up a lee side minimum

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase.   Something will throw curveballs.  I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns.  Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often.

I can see some gulf coast convection robbing moisture with this setup but QPF doesn't look like an issue 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, griteater said:

850mb low track is central MS to Wilmington on the Euro

any 850 track south and east of the triangle cannot be all bad.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, wncsnow said:

I can see some gulf coast convection robbing moisture with this setup but QPF doesn't look like an issue 

Could also aid moisture transport (not that it’s really needed in this setup) if you have a positive tilt to it.  But those things are a nowcast issue.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Well...well...well....but big caveat here this is all dependent on enough cold air for snow. If you believe Euro at face value this would be raging ZR/IP storm. 

5c08164d65fca.png

The bigger concern would probably be that ATL might be in bigger trouble than anyone initially thought.  The fact the Euro wants to push snow that far into Georgia gives me doubts that freezing temps don’t reach down there.  Right now not one forecasting outlet is giving more than a remote chance it does

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Interesting that it's picking up a lee side minimum

Yeah, that's definitely not a favorite feature of mine.  I'm not sure why it's doing that either.  When the moisture comes from the south, the mountains shouldn't have the effect that they do when it comes from the west or northwest.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

Yeah, that's definitely not a favorite feature of mine.  I'm not sure why it's doing that either.  When the moisture comes from the south, the mountains shouldn't have the effect that they do when it comes from the west or northwest.

I've always thought the south mountains always helped with lift I could be wrong...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×