Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip.

But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track.  For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC.  That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario).  Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft).  Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run

Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just because it's an important feature with this storm I wanted to look at data supporting some of the things we talk about... turns out there is actual data supporting under modeling of CAD, both in onset and erosion (the latter appears mainly with forecasting low temperatures, i.e. prematurely cutting off the CAD at night). 

Quote

"During the 10- year study period, MOS guidance forecasted maximum temperatures too high and minimum temperatures too low for most of the problematic CAD events, suggesting MOS guidance tended to underestimate the strength of CAD in these cases, seeming to struggle with weaker CAD events."

 

https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/bitstream/handle/10919/83476/Lindeman_SA_T_2018.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip.

But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track.  For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC.  That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario).  Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft).  Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run

Yeah going NE up the coast from SAV is going to do bad things.....the only people that cash in on that track are the foothill/mts.....the rest of us need a later phase or better yet a slow moving OTS track with a phase well off the SE coast....that track is gonna give the Triad etc ptype issues if it pans out.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE?

I know the Huffman boys have done some work on this in the past with surface low benchmarks....but I will say that there are various types of storms and various configurations at 850 and 500mb, so you kind of have to put them in storm type groups before establishing some of those benchmarks above the surface.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Yep, that all makes sense. I wonder if anyone has a latitude/longitude benchmark for CLT/RDU/other cities similar to 40-70 that is so often used for the I-95 corridor in the NE?

Allan or Brandon does.  Basically for a HKY  blockbuster a Miller A track around CHS and up the coast is best, CLT was SAV or Jacksonville and riding just a bit further off coast.  If I remember correctly.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

I'm 15 miles south of Greensboro, I have already prepared myself for a sleet fest. Just like in the January 2017 storm. In Randleman we had 4-5" of snow/sleet. In Pleasant Garden, 10 miles to my north they had 10-11" of all snow.  Preparing myself for a similar outcome. :weep:

I'm expecting something similar.  I'm just to your west a couple of miles in Sophia.  That was still quite a storm.  Sleet has some staying power.  I don't think folks are preparing well, yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, griteater said:

Just a note that the ICON takes the sfc temperatures to below freezing in CLT and parts of the upstate as the precip rolls thru (i.e. icy mix instead of rain)

UH-OH! If that scenario were to be realized, this would not bode well for Power and Property FOR SURE! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m thinking about heading up to the Banner Elk area this weekend from Alabama. Here’s my question for you locals - traditionally, how will the roads be Monday in that area? I would have to go home Monday. Granted I have a Wrangler Rubicon that is more than capable. Just not wanting to get in a situation where I can’t get back. I’ve never had an issue in snow, even deep snow. Ice however is a different story. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bamabuilder86 said:

I’m thinking about heading up to the Banner Elk area this weekend from Alabama. Here’s my question for you locals - traditionally, how will the roads be Monday in that area? I would have to go home Monday. Granted I have a Wrangler Rubicon that is more than capable. Just not wanting to get in a situation where I can’t get back. I’ve never had an issue in snow, even deep snow. Ice however is a different story. 

I would not assume that roads could be cleared in time for you to get back to Alabama from Banner Elk. Honestly, you’re just as good in Morganton or somewhere in the foothills that is interstate adjacent.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, griteater said:

Some of the runs closed off the 500mb wave nicely and moved it slowly thru the southeast...so in that case yes, you'd see that type of dynamical cooling and lingering of the precip.

But that non-withstanding, we can look a little lower at the 850mb low track.  For this setup, with a good closed 850mb low like this, for the upstate into Charlotte, we'd want to see that low track say from S MS to coastal SC.  That keeps the mid-level warming in check and you'd have good lift and cooling there on the NW side of the 850 low track (Miller A scenario).  Looking at the 06z FV3 GFS, it tracks the 850 low roughly from N MS to Cape Hatteras...so, that's too far north to keep it all snow in this region (brings in too much warming aloft).  Verbatim, the 06z FV3 GFS does have quite a bit of snow, but you get the picture...it puts us on the edge on that run

This is the million dollar question and anawers those benchmark questions as well.

WHERE DOES THE 850 LOW TRACK. That will tell everyone what the precip type will be for your back yard.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...