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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, burgertime said:

I tend to agree...that's a really good look to me on the NAM at 84...but it's NAM at 84. My bigger worry with this is always IF in early December that can over take the 925 temps. Seems to always screw folks from around GSO south. 

We need a Burger "BOOM" today!

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We can say what we want about the models but the below GFS run was from a week ago. Pretty good all things considered. 

us_model-en-087-0_modusa_2018112812_288_480_215.png

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6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow.

prec.png

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7 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. 

In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.

lol...amen. 

5 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Thank you for that, matt. Also my pet peeve. 

Mine too...probably my top one.  I understand it if someone is a noob but what's frustrating is you see people who have been around long enough to know better do it.  

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4 minutes ago, msuwx said:

Time for my semi-annual pet peeve post. One shift does not equal a “trend.” You need multiple, subsequent movements of something in the same direction for it to be a trend. 

In other words, multiple model cycles in a row, not 1.

This +1000

 

We are still a little over 3 days from the storm hitting, models are going to continue to oscillate north and south a bit for a while still. Ensembles are still the way to go this far out and they look nice for a very large portion of us. Breath people, you'd think some that have been on here for years would learn their lesson by now.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow.

prec.png

Almost reminds me of that February 2015 storm.

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Checked my soundings through 6z on Monday on this GFS run. Looks like it SHOULD be all snow through then, if the model is right. 

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5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow.

prec.png

As they say, "to get the epic snow you want to be able to smell the rain". Needless to say, this would paralyze the city for a few days

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Almost reminds me of that February 2015 storm.

I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 

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I've seen 2 noticeable trends on the EPS.  First, the 50/50 low has trended stronger and SW, which I think is good.  That's why our high pressure is modeled great and our confluence is keeping the low suppressed in the gulf nicely.  However it seems like once the storm hits the coast, the northern stream energy is phasing and tugging it closer to the coast on the last several runs.  Therefore I still like the threat of a good first thump of snow/sleet, but once the storm is to our south, things may pull north and WAA will take over.  

That's right now.  Hopefully that 50/50 will get keep trending stronger and the northern energy will trend slower to keep this thing south.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Queencity, Might I impose for the RDU numbers?  B)

RDU looks similar but a little less. An inch less on the means.

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4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 

yea looking at soundings on the 6z gfs clt looks all snow thru 96 then a warm nose pops up at 102 turning us to sleet.  encouraging that the warmer gfs shows a nice front end thumping.  if we can get the nam thermals to verify we would be in even better shape.  

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5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 

I could also see a january 1987 sort of situation.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

yea looking at soundings on the 6z gfs clt looks all snow thru 96 then a warm nose pops up at 102 turning us to sleet.  encouraging that the warmer gfs shows a nice front end thumping.  if we can get the nam thermals to verify we would be in even better shape.  

Rooting for you just always that pesky WAA that kills the CLT area in these storms. It does look pretty good to my eyes though that you get that big hit up front...and cross your fingers maybe it sticks around longer than expected. 

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

I could also see a january 1987 sort of situation.

Living on the edge my friend :P ....but it is looking like it'll be a fun storm to track at the very least. Everything does look good though from confluence in the north and a good high over the lakes. It certainly has me looking at the models haha. 

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Not sure how accurate this output is from coolwx.com, but if no sleet were to mix in, in GSO like this image depicts below, this could be the outcome.  But I'm pretty sure sleet will be factor in GSO. prec.png

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

I dont think this is an awful comparison

accum.19870123.gif

I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak!

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2 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Not sure how accurate this output is from coolwx.com, but if no sleet were to mix in, in GSO like this image depicts below, this could be the outcome.  But I'm pretty sure sleet will be factor in GSO. 

The bufkit warehouse text output will give you more information.  It has 25.7" of snow and .13" of ice pellets.

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3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I dont think this is an awful comparison

accum.19870123.gif

That's horrible, my area doesn't get jack if we are comparing. All rain for me.

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2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I dont think this is an awful comparison

accum.19870123.gif

I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak!

And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS.   I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close.  Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one.   Good thing we have the sanitarium!

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1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS.   I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close.  Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one.   Good thing we have the sanitarium!

Here's RDU:

 

aaaa.jpg

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO

You think this has big ZR potential? Maybe I'm wrong but just looking at GFS (don't have access to Euro at the moment) it doesn't look like it'll take much. 

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The 6z gefs mean QPF and snowfall means we’re both south of 0z also increased mean snowfall quite a bit


.

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