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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

6z gfs has clt right on the rain snow line and in turn spit out these ridiculous numbers. i don't buy it though, i think we see a lot more sleet and a lot more rain than snow.

prec.png

As they say, "to get the epic snow you want to be able to smell the rain". Needless to say, this would paralyze the city for a few days

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Almost reminds me of that February 2015 storm.

I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 

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I've seen 2 noticeable trends on the EPS.  First, the 50/50 low has trended stronger and SW, which I think is good.  That's why our high pressure is modeled great and our confluence is keeping the low suppressed in the gulf nicely.  However it seems like once the storm hits the coast, the northern stream energy is phasing and tugging it closer to the coast on the last several runs.  Therefore I still like the threat of a good first thump of snow/sleet, but once the storm is to our south, things may pull north and WAA will take over.  

That's right now.  Hopefully that 50/50 will get keep trending stronger and the northern energy will trend slower to keep this thing south.  

 

 

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4 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 

yea looking at soundings on the 6z gfs clt looks all snow thru 96 then a warm nose pops up at 102 turning us to sleet.  encouraging that the warmer gfs shows a nice front end thumping.  if we can get the nam thermals to verify we would be in even better shape.  

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5 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I think this could be a great analog. Could see getting a good storm with layers...don't think CLT gets a foot but I could def see 6 inches with an inch of sleet and some frozen rain/drizzle thrown in at the end....and then a bump of snow again at the end. 

I could also see a january 1987 sort of situation.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

yea looking at soundings on the 6z gfs clt looks all snow thru 96 then a warm nose pops up at 102 turning us to sleet.  encouraging that the warmer gfs shows a nice front end thumping.  if we can get the nam thermals to verify we would be in even better shape.  

Rooting for you just always that pesky WAA that kills the CLT area in these storms. It does look pretty good to my eyes though that you get that big hit up front...and cross your fingers maybe it sticks around longer than expected. 

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1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

I could also see a january 1987 sort of situation.

Living on the edge my friend :P ....but it is looking like it'll be a fun storm to track at the very least. Everything does look good though from confluence in the north and a good high over the lakes. It certainly has me looking at the models haha. 

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2 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Not sure how accurate this output is from coolwx.com, but if no sleet were to mix in, in GSO like this image depicts below, this could be the outcome.  But I'm pretty sure sleet will be factor in GSO. 

The bufkit warehouse text output will give you more information.  It has 25.7" of snow and .13" of ice pellets.

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak!

And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS.   I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close.  Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one.   Good thing we have the sanitarium!

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1 minute ago, CentralNC said:

And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS.   I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close.  Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one.   Good thing we have the sanitarium!

Here's RDU:

 

aaaa.jpg

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

I think though that we are headed in the direction of more of a Miller B or Miller B Hybrid as HkyWx calls it....where that was straight Miller A...so, I would expect much more mixed precip compared to that one, IMO

You think this has big ZR potential? Maybe I'm wrong but just looking at GFS (don't have access to Euro at the moment) it doesn't look like it'll take much. 

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2 minutes ago, burgertime said:

You think this has big ZR potential? Maybe I'm wrong but just looking at GFS (don't have access to Euro at the moment) it doesn't look like it'll take much. 

I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one.  Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out

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11 minutes ago, burgertime said:

I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak!

Haha...i live on the 1-2 line...every storm...every time.  I fully expect it to play out just like that

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Just now, griteater said:

I think the cold damming is going to lock in pretty well with this one.  Yeah, legit concerns for substantial ice...just a matter of how much sleet vs. frz rain, and where that shakes out

Yea that high in the north is enough...plus good high over the lakes so probably just being paranoid. 

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