Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,496
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    roger7189
    Newest Member
    roger7189
    Joined
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

Just now, SLAMSTORM22 said:

Ridiculous analysis and comments again off one run of the flip floppiest models the GFS. Follow the Ensembles... Sheesh

enough complaining. if you don't like it, leave. 

  • Like 7
  • Thanks 5
  • Haha 3
  • Confused 1
  • Sad 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. 

canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here. 

I'll take that bet. Living in upstate SC for 30 years can make one quite the pessimist. I've even come up with my own formula to determine snow amounts. Take whatever is being modeled/forecasted and cut it in half. Take that total and cut it in half again. Whatever is remaining from that total, assume at least 1" of it will be either sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. Be happy if what's left of the total is snow.

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Lookout said:

enough complaining. if you don't like it, leave. 

I hope I didn’t come across as complaining. Just commenting the GFS doesn’t show much for GSP.   I agree it is one model run with a model that will not exist In a month. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Lookout said:

The pressure gradient and packed isobars are impressive with this system. In general all show a 12mb pressure difference across ga and 20mb from west ga to nc at it's maximum. That's about as good as one can hope to see.  Indeed you see it in the 20 to 40 knot low level northeasterly flow across ga/carolinas.  If the nam is correct in it's depiction of lower dewpoints, surface pressures, and much colder low levels, you can pretty much toss the gfs surface temps in the trash. 

 

I would ride the V3, it's been solid IMO, and even the 18z "old" GFS had some wonky stuff, too

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A funny observation from watching Lanie Pope at 11. She still had the graphic showing a 10-30% chance of western piedmont getting snow/ice accumulating. That was followed by the future radar...depicting snow breaking out in western piedmont at 8:30am Sunday and it still snowing at 5:30am Tuesday!

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big picture: I think there is strong confidence in a solid front-end thump for a good portion of the NC Piedmont Saturday night/Sunday morning, transitioning to mixed p-types during the day Sunday. All in all, confidence seems high right now in a significant winter storm that will feature heavy wet snow, sleet, perhaps freezing rain and then plain rain for some. Regardless of the totals, this should be a good way to kick off the winter. 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, UpstateSCBud said:

I'll take that bet. Living in upstate SC for 30 years can make one quite the pessimist. I've even come up with my own formula to determine snow amounts. Take whatever is being modeled/forecasted and cut it in half. Take that total and cut it in half again. Whatever is remaining from that total, assume at least 1" of it will be either sleet, freezing rain, or cold rain. Be happy if what's left of the total is snow.

I'd be pretty excited if i was in the upstate because i think it's a given right now that most of the precip will be of the winter variety in some form or fashion. 

3 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

I hope I didn’t come across as complaining. Just commenting the GFS doesn’t show much for GSP.   I agree it is one model run with a model that will not exist In a month. 

It's ok, i wasn't  directing that at you but that being said just a little less banter/one liners and taking the gfs at face value with cad would probably be better. ;) 

As i said above, i'd be happy if i was where you were. Of course my standards are a lot lower probably. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is wild. Check this out. I got two trend gifs. First one is the 500 vort over Texas:

1648794407_ross1.thumb.gif.d91ea22f4dc46037a7e39714ed328d20.gif

So, there's some variation, and these differences are important! But for the most part, it's just noise, and the front end outcome hasn't changed much with this system. Now fast forward 24 hours later: 

301546591_ross2.thumb.gif.63ba967e28caa73d161af0154ac52541.gif

There are worlds of differences here- vort maxes aren't just in different states, they're in different regions- Especially on the last 3 runs. This has a lot implications for how our trough is oriented, where the best lift is, where the SLP ends up, and consequently, where the high gets pushed. Don't really know what's going on upstream for the GFS to cause these differences. I also don't know if other models have this, it's just the first thing that caught my mind on the GFS. Any of these solutions are still probably plausible but it's definitely weighing on my mind that the GFS has no idea what's going on once this shortwave gets into the SE. 

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Big picture: I think there is strong confidence in a solid front-end thump for a good portion of the NC Piedmont Saturday night/Sunday morning, transitioning to mixed p-types during the day Sunday. All in all, confidence seems high right now in a significant winter storm that will feature heavy wet snow, sleet, perhaps freezing rain and then plain rain for some. Regardless of the totals, this should be a good way to kick off the winter. 

Bingo! Post of the night!!  No doubt there will be many more changes before we get to Saturday!!! 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I'm willing to bet a dollar that the gfs is full of **** for gsp/upstate. 

canadian is quite a bit colder than previous runs. a whopping 8 degrees colder in fact here. 

I'm with ya brother. Watch tomorrow and Thursdays Nam runs and see the dew points in the low 20's here and a surface temp 35-37. I'm banking on how the wedge has performed this far in fall. This one is dam near classic set up for wedge counties except for the original air mass is a touch warm.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Any of these solutions are still probably plausible but it's definitely weighing on my mind that the GFS has no idea what's going on once this shortwave gets into the SE. 

It reminds me of the SREF...if it ends up being right, it's for the wrong reasons

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guys I may be off but I think the GFS always has trouble with our systems about 4 or 5 days out. I think it has a particular weakness projecting how the S/w is going to act once it gets onshore. Thinking back through other storms it seems to be all over the place about this same time, then seems to be pretty close by about  48-72 hours out. Remember, it also like to suppress, overcorrect north, then suppress a bit more late in the game. Not too worried about the GFS yet BUT, much of the suite tonight looks to be going with a slightly weaker high anchor, a farther north LP, and resultant trimming of peripheral totals. That's actually climo. Best expectation now is mtns getting nice storm, maybe very big, then NW Piedmont- central NC- eastern/central upstate, etc, in that order for the next best chances. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Would the 2nd piece of energy diving down on the animation above, behind the storm, be pushing the first piece more NE, or does it not work like that!?

To me it looks like they're trying to phase. I think we want them to stay separated. I think the energy wants to consolidate thus, yes, pulling our wave a bit north. I dunno, maybe not..Grit?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Since the NAM is pretty good at modeling the CAD wedge here is a an animation showing the CAD becoming established via dewpoint on Saturday.

 

namconus_Td2m_seus_fh72-84.gif

That's what HAS to happen for us periphery peeps (upstate, Clt, Rdu, Nega) to get much wintry stuff. If that is accurate and the push continues, look out. And we all know GFS is terrible with this at this range.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

FV3 almost wanting to go back to the miller b esque scenario. Low into eastern Alabama then the secondary takes over east of MYR and south of Wilmington. Then does a weird loop and loops back in over the outer banks. Plenty cold as well is the FV3 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
44 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Would the 2nd piece of energy diving down on the animation above, behind the storm, be pushing the first piece more NE, or does it not work like that!?

 

18 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

To me it looks like they're trying to phase. I think we want them to stay separated. I think the energy wants to consolidate thus, yes, pulling our wave a bit north. I dunno, maybe not..Grit?

It's a good point Mack and Iceage - yeah, that's why I've said all along that I want the southern wave to be left alone and for it to just track west to east without any northern stream interaction.  If northern stream pieces are diving in early, it will want to sling shot the wave a bit northeast or at least raise the heights in the east which means more warming and more precip north - good for VA, bad for us.  If it dives in for a late phase that's fine.  Not really concerned with what the GFS is doing there.  The bigger concern is just the Euro being maybe too far south / too suppressed compared to what really happens at go time.  I was thinking earlier how @SnowGoose69 used to say that the Euro has a bias now where it tends to be more suppressed in the mid range compared to other models.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Trends are not good then! The two best models ( old and new GFS) going N tonight, uggh

FV3 looked fine to me, a touch slower but overall maintained the same general r/s line. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

FV3- looks about the same, as ILMRoss said.

fv3p_asnow_us_29.png

I live in caldwell county.. should i go ahead and buy a roof rake?? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I live in caldwell county.. should i go ahead and buy a roof rake?? 

NO!! Long way to go, I wouldn’t bet on a big snow just yet. I’ve seen models drop a solution it had been showing for days. Day before storm time. I’m not biting on these big accumulations till Thursday night at 0z if it’s still there I will get excited! JMHO

 

 

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BIG FROSTY said:


NO!! Long way to go, I wouldn’t bet on a big snow just yet. I’ve seen models drop a solution it had been showing for the day before storm time. I’m not biting on these big accumulations till Thursday night at 0z if it’s still there I will get excited! JMHO


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You tha man. Thanks.. im going to have to order it off of amazon so ill have to order tommorrow

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×