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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Despite the fact it’s slightly suspicious I like this run for my area! Snow 8 am Sunday to 8 pm monday with 16 inches kuchera ratio. Despite the fact it seems off interesting to note the coastal trend.

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The analysis on each model run in this thread is the worst thing I've ever read on any weather site. Everyone is worried about their backyard so you get 20 different people saying it's good, it's bad, it's good, it's bad. Moderators please control this especially as we get closer

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4 minutes ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

The analysis on each model run in this thread is the worst thing I've ever read on any weather site. Everyone is worried about their backyard so you get 20 different people saying it's good, it's bad, it's good, it's bad. Moderators please control this especially as we get closer

LOL......you don't have to read the threads this is how we roll in the SE forum we are much less uptight than the folks from other forums......I suggest rolling with the punches or visiting the Sanitarium thread.....or going back to the NYC/MA forums since your in NJ.

Screenshot 2018-12-04 17.27.43.png

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4 minutes ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

The analysis on each model run in this thread is the worst thing I've ever read on any weather site. Everyone is worried about their backyard so you get 20 different people saying it's good, it's bad, it's good, it's bad. Moderators please control this especially as we get closer

Every weather board, every winter threat and I have been on these boards longer than some of these posters have been alive.

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@Orangeburgwx & I are still "fishing" Nice Spread of Baits  out, Trolling & wait & see, 25 degree dew(s),, Lower, south & deeper.. 

Otherwise I hope you Folks Up state get IceAgeSnow(s).. Enough to start a Glacier! ;)

As always We might have to "wait" on the backend here..

KILM says

but may see some snow mixing in
on the back end as cooler air advects in as shortwave rides
through the Carolinas Mon night.

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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:

Screenshot 2018-12-04 17.27.43.png

Pretty sure that is 10:1 ratio.

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Just now, SLAMSTORM22 said:

I live in NC. Just updated my profile. (feel free to move this to banter) 

Then get use to it cause this is how it is every single time a storm comes around in the SE forum........the same core group post the same way every single model run.......with gaggles of lurkers asking MBY questions......it is what it is.....

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3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:

Screenshot 2018-12-04 17.27.43.png

Yeah I noticed the model output doesn't seem to reflect the snowfall output, even the Kuchera map.  I don't know why.  I like the pretty maps though....even in a "bad" run I'm getting nice clown maps.  

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Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Does anyone know what the snow ratios will be in southern va? Maybe 9:1-10:1?

Too far out to even begin discussing this honestly. We are still trying to nail down a track. 

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Just now, Disc said:

Too far out to even begin discussing this honestly. We are still trying to nail down a track. 

Listen to this man

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10 minutes ago, Poimen said:

I'm not sure if this really matches the model, but I believe this is based on the Kuchera method, FWIW:

Screenshot 2018-12-04 17.27.43.png

Correct. This is Kuchera. It at least tones down on the absurd totals to the east. 

 

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18z got derailed very early on, when configuration of the parent shortwave got pushed *way* more positive over the southwest. This kind of put a positive slant on the s/w for the rest of the run and to me, really tampered with the dynamics, and created less qpf. Is it possible? I mean sure, but I'm not putting much stock in this particular iteration

Untitled.png

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Looking at the GFS, it seems as if the model is indicating dynamical cooling over the NC Piedmont at the onset...note how the 850 temps  cool over central NC from west to east overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, forming a pocket of below zero temps cutoff from warmer temps to the north. 

Just something interesting to me.

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Looking at the GFS, it seems as if the model is indicating dynamical cooling over the NC Piedmont at the onset...note how the 850 temps  cool over central NC from west to east overnight Saturday/Sunday morning, forming a pocket of below zero temps cutoff from warmer temps to the north. 

Just something interesting to me.

 

 

Poimen, 

Thanks for all your contributions. I really have picked up bits and pieces from you, as well as many others over the years. Good observation!

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6 minutes ago, Weatherman23 said:

Hey everyone, glad to be a part of the forum, anyone think SE VA could see a little snow with this system?

WELCOME to the Family! There is a ton of great persons in here. You will enjoy it!

 

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Love when news 4 Chris justice says mainly north of 85 but models show it south on his screen then says models show it south but not likely not even 5 miles south of it. Classic, just keep ticking a little south to give me a realistic shot at some white stuff

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2 minutes ago, Upstatescweather said:

Love when news 4 Chris justice says mainly north of 85 but models show it south on his screen then says models show it south but not likely not even 5 miles south of it. Classic, just keep ticking a little south to give me a realistic shot at some white stuff

He's basing it off of climo telling him the 85 corridor is nearly always the freezing despite what the models say. 

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Lanie Pope goes with a 10-30% chance of accumulating snow over the WXII coverage area.  Last time I checked their coverage area includes a few tall thingies called mountains!?!  She may want to update that slightly for the 11pm broadcast.

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10 minutes ago, Upstatescweather said:

Love when news 4 Chris justice says mainly north of 85 but models show it south on his screen then says models show it south but not likely not even 5 miles south of it. Classic, just keep ticking a little south to give me a realistic shot at some white stuff

With the CAD being the source of cold air typically I85 is the cut off give or take 10 miles. It depends on the strength and placement of the High. Hopefully it trends a little further south which helps me being NW of 85

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