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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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for our decent storms the warm nose doesn't bring us back down to reality until 48-72hrs out, so to see this so early is not good. mountains and foothills are understandably excited but if anyone thinks CLT and RDU aren't in for a classic screwjob you're mistaken.  That 2017 snow/ice map is probably going to be close to reality for this event.

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

It's not surprising it's trended warmer, being early December, all frozen events are extremely rare

yep, climo says no and we are dealing with marginal cold at best.  anyone outside of the mountains that has their hopes up needs to save themselves a lot of heartbreak and expect rain. any snow falling before christmas is a win. these clown maps are ridiculous and they give people the expectation of monster totals, when in reality even an inch of snow in early december would be amazing.

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

yep, climo says no and we are dealing with marginal cold at best.  anyone outside of the mountains that has their hopes up needs to save themselves a lot of heartbreak and expect rain. any snow falling before christmas is a win. these clown maps are ridiculous and they give people the expectation of monster totals, when in reality even an inch of snow in early december would be amazing.

I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this. 

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6 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

for our decent storms the warm nose doesn't bring us back down to reality until 48-72hrs out, so to see this so early is not good. mountains and foothills are understandably excited but if anyone thinks CLT and RDU aren't in for a classic screwjob you're mistaken.  That 2017 snow/ice map is probably going to be close to reality for this event.

As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge).

Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess.  

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As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge).
Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess.  


Wake Co as usual


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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge).

Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess.  

Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

 

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this. 

i know but i remember in jan 2017 every single ensemble member showed 12"+ for rdu, and i was thinking that there was no way they would all be wrong on temps.  and they all were and we got a sleetfest.

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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/tdorian/gefs/EMCGEFSplumes.html

 

Keep in mind I'm covered in the KCAE NWS discussions... 8" would be amazing but I will take the .7" mean

I’m going to take my 1.25” of rain and think wistfully of what could be if only temperatures would cooperate in SE VA & NE NC. I have the beach less than an hour away, so it’s nice when I want to go to Kitty Hawk and fish, but not so good when I want snow. Meh... I like beach weather instead of cold rain, but what can you do. Hope you guys west of me cash in so I can see pretty pictures of snow and Christmas decorations.

 

 

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The 6z FV3 run looks identical to yesterday's 0z run (12/3).  Then it went back to a slider for a few runs. So model runs across the board are going back and forth with the idea of it pulling north.  We'll see what happens today if we gain any confidence in that idea.

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I really doubt this storm ends up as 100% snow for anyone except the mountains, including the foothills. The ratio of sleet to snow obviously grows as you push further east but the question is how much sleet. I do feel pretty confident right now that it's either going to be sleet or snow at this juncture IMBY. If I was s&e of 85(Cary, Raleigh, Most of Wake and Johnston), I'd be really concerned about a massive ice storm. I also feel like we're going to see a colder surface reflection with the damming and heavy precip. 

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