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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just think, if this storm were coming a month from now, the current FV3 model would be the operational GFS.  

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For those who do this for a living, if you had to set odds for inch of snow in the NC Triad...?

Despite the flashes of something major, for this early in the season, I’d take just some flakes flying and a slushy 1-2 inches in Winston. 

 

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I equate this experience to watching Tiger Woods tee off on the 1st hole in the Masters on day 1 and having everyone (us) scream "Baba Booey!!!" as loud as we can.  Meanwhile Tiger just snap hooked the ball into the trees about 200 yards down the fairway.

Moral of the story.....no amount of screaming and enthusiastic support could have made that ball go straight.

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FV3 looks the same, though NW vs its 12z run, but the setup is no different.  Good run overall at this range.

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18z GFS is interesting. GFS has the shortwave landfalling in Cali as a much sharper wave... the orientation is a lot different. I included the trend.  I reckon this is what eventually tugged the entire system to the N. 18z output sucked, even for me, but how on earth is the GFS going to make such a large change to the shortwave over one of the most under-sampled regions? I'm not tossing the 18z GFS but I'm not putting much stock in it either.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.gif

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5 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

FV3 looking way north of 12z

Really just noise at this range, still a monster winter storm.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

FV3 GFS brings the Hammer!! Wow!!

 

 

 

 Looks like we traded fantasy snow totals vs 12z  ;)

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

18z GFS is interesting. GFS has the shortwave landfalling in Cali as a much sharper wave... the orientation is a lot different. I included the trend.  I reckon this is what eventually tugged the entire system to the N. 18z output sucked, even for me, but how on earth is the GFS going to make such a large change to the shortwave over one of the most under-sampled regions? I'm not tossing the 18z GFS but I'm not putting much stock in it either.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.gif

Also, the push over Maine is further SW, on the last image, should be better cold press?

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Here are the last 8 runs of the FV3 snow totals.  I will say it's been generally consistent with a NC winter storm in some form

DXerzBg.gif

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

FV3 GFS brings the Hammer!! Wow!!

 

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_31.png

Not sure how that map is generated, but there really shouldn't be much if any snow outside of the western/northern piedmont (aside from some at the beginning), based off a quick glance of the modeled 850 temps. 

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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Not sure how that map is generated, but there really shouldn't be much if any snow outside of the western/northern piedmont (aside from some at the beginning), based off a quick glance of the modeled 850 temps. 

It was mentioned in the Tennessee Valley thread the other day, but the TT formula is off for the FV3. If you compare the snow total map to other sites it is significantly increased on TT for some reason.

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Yeah the snow total product on the FV3 is just straight up broke. Showing foot plus totals in places that should be rain for pretty much the entire event.

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4 minutes ago, griteater said:

But I want the noise ringing from Hattiesburg to Myrtle Beach at this time range! :)

No wiggle room

Check this out, I like the grouping of lows beginning to cluster around the southern Mississippi/ Georgia border. Then look at the next frame, cluster appears to have moved due east. Perhaps this may imply a track closer to the gulf?

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh126_trend.gif

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh132_trend.gif

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3 minutes ago, Wurbus said:

It was mentioned in the Tennessee Valley thread the other day, but the TT formula is off for the FV3. If you compare the snow total map to other sites it is significantly increased on TT for some reason.

Here you go... another site with big totals from the 18z FV3

 

 

Screenshot_20181203-184002_Samsung Internet.jpg

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1 hour ago, SnowDawg said:

Just can’t never get a high to lock in throughout a storm anymore... Always rocketing off the coast as soon as the precip arrives.

You can thank the NAO and its positive state for the better part of a decade for that. People blow it off and say the PNA is more important. Truth is they are equally important. The PNA delivers the cold but the NAO slows it down and locks it in. Without it you're trying to get the low and high to run in tandem and well, you know that fails 9 out of 10 times.

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19 minutes ago, Disco Lemonade said:

Check this out, I like the grouping of lows beginning to cluster around the southern Mississippi/ Georgia border. Then look at the next frame, cluster appears to have moved due east. Perhaps this may imply a track closer to the gulf?

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh126_trend.gif

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_fh132_trend.gif

The issue is surface lows don't run in a straight line. They jump contingent on upper level forcing and dynamics. My guess is we see a weak SFC low reflection over southern Ms valley, then near mid ga, then eventually offshore. Not a true Miller a or b. This usually means snow in the nw mtns, snow to ice in the foothills and northern nc, snow to ice to rain elsewhere.

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Here's the past 8 runs of the FV3 total QPF... definitely trending wetter regardless of the precip type

f56yMqs.gif

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

GEFS increases again, especially NW NC, SW & Central VA.

Comparison of 12z & 18z

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_204.png

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_198.png

How in the hell is the ensembles giving me a dusting? The NW trend is obvious so I'm going to bet on me getting cold rain unless the trend reverses. It was fun while it lasted, and truth be told I'm surprised I made it this long

 

#stormdone

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By this time tomorrow we close in on 100 hrs of the event. One would think the ensembles and the operationals will begin some agreement. Will the ensembles go north? Or will the ops come back south? I know what my money is on:raining:

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1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said:

By this time tomorrow we close in on 100 hrs of the event. One would think the ensembles and the operationals will begin some agreement. Will the ensembles go north? Or will the ops come back south? I know what my money is on:raining:

I am thinking North.

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