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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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18z GFS is a big hit of snow for WNC/CNC. Much wetter and temps crash as the low gets out to coast. Again probably not worth anything right now. 

 

 

5c0c39e37c5ab.png

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8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

Ok, so my official forecast from NWS for Mooresville is over a foot of snow.  I'm not seeing it, but I hope it's right.  Matches up with Allan and Eyewall, but I don't understand how the sleet storm after midmorning isn't going to cut those totals big time...

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

This is hours old, they released another at 2:57, downgraded AVL to 10".

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GFS brings a second round on Monday. I don't think I've ever seen a clown map for NC on a global that looked like this, this close to an event. Unreal. 

5c0c3aecbbb92.png

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2 minutes ago, insipidlight said:

This is hours old, they released another at 2:57, downgraded AVL to 10".

Sorry, I had that queued up and didn't update. New one is similar in my backyard. 

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

GFS brings a second round on Monday. I don't think I've ever seen a clown map for NC on a global that looked like this, this close to an event. Unreal. 



We'll see what ends up happening but I was wondering if the second round may start showing back up on some models. It's the kind of thing I recall showing up very late in the modeling more than once in the past.

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17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Eh,  huh? Did they increase totals? That's not the map I saw earlier. What is the reasoning for the increase?

They decreased totals...

 

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RAH Disco:

Snow/Ice amounts: 

Only a slight change in forecast snow amounts with the heavy wet 
snowfall axis of 8 to 12 inches expected to along and north of I-85, 
with the predominate p-type expected to fall as mainly, with 
diabatic and strong dynamic lift/cooling supporting a deep near 
freezing isothermal layer. Lift and saturation will begin to wane 21 
to 00z, with p-type changing over to a light freezing rain/drizzle 
overnight. Ice amounts are expected to be less than a 0.10". 

Just south of this heavy snow area and west of US 1,  snow amounts 
of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with the bulk of the snow occurring 
through mid to late morning. Then as the warm air aloft spreads into 
the area from the southeast, p-type is expected to change-over to 
freezing rain, with a 0.10 to 0.25" of freezing rain/ice possible 
through the afternoon.
If the change-over to freezing rain occurs quicker than forecast, 
snow amounts will be less, but ice amounts could easily exceed a 
0.25" of an ice. Ice/freezing rain amounts combined with wind gusts 
in the 25 to 35 mph range will cause widespread damage from downed 
trees and power-lines. 

Finally, east of US-1 and south of I-85, warm nose spreading into 
the area during the mid to late morning will result in a sharp NW to 
SE reduction in snow and ice amounts.  After a quick morning burst 
of snow and/or snow-sleet mix, which could bring 1 to 4 inches of 
snow to the area, a brief period of freezing rain can be expected 
before changing over to rain. Little to no ice is expected.  

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7 minutes ago, burgertime said:

GFS brings a second round on Monday. I don't think I've ever seen a clown map for NC on a global that looked like this, this close to an event. Unreal. 

5c0c3aecbbb92.png

Even southern Piedmont NC places like Wadesboro and Rockingham get in on  the snowmegeddon action here!

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1806356986_ScreenShot2018-12-08at4_56_46PM.thumb.png.07d30c08c6d0f50a8f7528cd53a85cef.png941833983_ScreenShot2018-12-08at4_54_34PM.thumb.png.79c9e3fbbf1befdd7e4d5582939f02fa.png

 

 

Coming into scope now... Sleet and Rain (both normal and freezing) the primary elements in CLT. Strong SWly jet going to be too much and will help erode CAD aloft.

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1 minute ago, PackWxMan said:

1806356986_ScreenShot2018-12-08at4_56_46PM.thumb.png.07d30c08c6d0f50a8f7528cd53a85cef.png941833983_ScreenShot2018-12-08at4_54_34PM.thumb.png.79c9e3fbbf1befdd7e4d5582939f02fa.png

 

 

Coming into scope now... Sleet and Rain (both normal and freezing) the primary elements in CLT. Strong SWly jet going to be too much and will help erode CAD aloft.

Regardless that amount of sleet and ZR would worry me. If it busts just slightly with the ZR to rain ratio it would be some nice power outages there.

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like I am right on the 4 to 8 line with RAH. GFS looked awesome this way. 

Looks like from the discussion they arent downscaling really even with the Euro not being as sexy as people wanted. I’m near the RDU Airport and Umstead Park. 

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Early in the 21z HRRR, the high pressure is a mb stronger and further southwest. As a result, western piedmont switches over to snow an hour earlier at 1z. 

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Precip is smashing into a brick wall across TN and NC.  Any thoughts on whether or not this may end up being our initial SN/IP battle line until later tomorrow as the warm nose starts to creep in? If so, that puts CLT squarely in the ice zone and the rest of the central and NW piedmont all snow for quite a while.

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2 minutes ago, Poimen said:

RAH doubling down in the Triad :o

 

Here's the number guesses instead of ranges. I haven't had a foot at my house since I bought it in 2006. Not expecting it this time either but it's nice to see.

StormTotalSnow128184pm.png

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2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Precip is smashing into a brick wall across TN and NC.  Any thoughts on whether or not this may end up being our initial SN/IP battle line until later tomorrow as the warm nose starts to creep in? If so, that puts CLT squarely in the ice zone and the rest of the central and NW piedmont all snow for quite a while.

Pretty sure this was always the case. Very dry air at the NC/SC state line that will take a while to saturate. I still believe like always the battle line will be I-85 give or take 10 miles either way.

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