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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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.85 of freezing rain over Charlotte would cripple the city. And given that the NAM seems a little warm, that has me terrified down in Rock Hill.

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Tomorrow is gonna be about rates, too. Heavier the snow earlier on the better chance it holds on just a little longer.

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1 minute ago, UpstateSCBud said:

Not gonna happen, not that much anyway. Even half of that though in this area would be terrible. 

Having lived through a terrible ice storm in 2004 just below Columbia, SC and seeing and hearing the popping sounds of acres of Pines being destroyed I would rather have cold rain than ice. Not to mention how long we were without power. No thanks.

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Just now, Queencitywx said:

Tomorrow is gonna be about rates, too. Heavier the snow earlier on the better chance it holds on just a little longer.

Yep, and this thing is so juiced. You look to be in prime position hopefully that precip shield really spreads north well. 

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4 minutes ago, PGAWx said:

Could you please post a map Burger?

They don't have hi-res snow maps on SV...just making a guess based on precip totals and p-type. 

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16 minutes ago, insipidlight said:

Dense snow in Asheville now. Quick transition from rain ->big flakes -> wet snow. Will post radarscope in a bit

Crap I'm headed up to Boone shortly. I need to get on the road if it's already in Asheville!

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Just now, strongwxnc said:

Dang Jonathan this is so juiced! As I type sitting inside that yellow contour. 

Have a feeling you'll be breaking out the yard stick Mark! 

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Down to 32.4 here. Almost 12 hours ahead of when GSP said we’d be near freezing, and a forecast of less than a half inch of snow in the daytime period. E8457A36-5166-4565-A1F4-CC2A6BB5C216.thumb.jpeg.f386a609cfbb0b727e59fa0321974f7c.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

Nice!  That would be incredible. Took us a while, but we have switched over to snow.

Yay! :wub:   

I will never forget the winter you stopped posting all those years ago  :(  It's one of my worst favorite memories  :lol:  I hope you get rocked  :wub: 

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18 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Yay! :wub:   

I will never forget the winter you stopped posting all those years ago  :(  It's one of my worst favorite memories  :lol:  I hope you get rocked  :wub: 

Ha!Ha!  Yeah, a grudge against snow. Showing my intelligence.    Thanks!!!  :)

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

Good lord RNK went low on the northern edge of totals


.

I noticed that, too! RLX very low! All models show at least 3" for Beckley up to 8"

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12 hours ago, burgertime said:

Nailbiter as always because that tends to be an on the ground issue. We need @phil882 on the case! 

Ask and you shall receive!

Haven't been here in a while, but I wouldn’t miss a chance to check in with my old friends here. I’m out now on the west coast in a location (Monterey, CA) that never gets snow so now I get to live vicariously through you all.

To keep things on topic, one thing I’d lookout for is the front end precipitation rates (now-midnight). Have a feeling those in the WNC mountains will over preform with snow accumulation in the early going for this system, as the frontogenesis on the front end band is probably being a bit underforecasted given the impressive 40-45 dBz band seen on radar upstream.

se_201812081900.png

For upstate SC, it will depend if the precip rates get high enough to bring the entire 800-sfc column to isothermal. We still have a ways to go for those still in the 40F range, but there is already plenty of mixing for those in the 35-37F range, so once the stronger band moves in, we should see most of the northern upstate (North of I-85) flip over to wet snow before the warm nose comes in.

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9 minutes ago, broken024 said:

Nam 3k is damn close to all rain for north union...

I'll be honest, i'm having issues with the  3km nam. For starters, it's too warm at the surface. Second, i find it next to impossible to believe there won't be more sleet than it shows over northeast ga where it essentially has none. Never mind it is warmer than even the hrrr at the surface.   Third, it seems too warm aloft compared to the hrrr. Here is the 12z 3km nam 6 hour 850mb temp vs the 0z analyzed hrrr at 18z. So imho, i'd be cautious about it right now imo. 

The hrrr has done well in the past few winter storms here in ga so i'd put more weight on it right now. 

850th.us_se (2).png

850th.us_se.png

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Where is it we find the graphics that show what models like the NAM puts out per location like RDU over a given timeframe? Where it shows how much is Snow, Sleet or Freezing rain. I can't seem to locate it anywhere.

 

Something like this is what I'm talking about:

 

Screen Shot 2018-12-08 at 1.15.31 PM.png

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