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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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As an FYI for anyone watching surface maps and how the short range models are doing vs. what is falling, Highlands NC Main Street just went to snow minutes ago: https://highlandsnc.org/cam.

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Our temperatures in the upstate along 85 have hardly budged.  Looking at 42-43 with a DP in the upper 30's.  Been reports of light sleet and wet snow north into Inman and Landrum.  Banking on the HP doing its thing later this evening to really cool down the surface temps.  

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4 minutes ago, SENC said:

….. 

94percent.JPG

HRRR still looks good.  For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM.  I'm happy it's on my side.  We'll see. 

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5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Ouch. Lights out for weeks if this verifies in S NC and N. SC

F85ADD27-2B79-4702-8AB2-1B3440A25922.png

I agree that any accumulation could be bad but don't bank on those totals actually accumulating.  No where near cold enough at surface, should be raining heavy at times which minimizes accretion

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38 minutes ago, Businessjan said:

Sweet Jesus that blankets pretty 90% of NC with precip

Notice the low pressure is up into central AL and GA. I spoke about this a few days ago. This often happens in STJ dominate system where CAD has setup. This always changes everyone to ice except for the NW mountains. That's why these 10:1 snow ratio maps posted all week were worthless.

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7 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

Our temperatures in the upstate along 85 have hardly budged.  Looking at 42-43 with a DP in the upper 30's.  Been reports of light sleet and wet snow north into Inman and Landrum.  Banking on the HP doing its thing later this evening to really cool down the surface temps.  

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

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"If you haven't prepared for this winter storm, your window is closing rapidly. Driving will be dangerous AT LEAST tonight through tomorrow PM and many folks will lose power. A bunch of us at the office at GSP are even planning to sleep here tonight. This is one to take seriously."

 

This just came in from GSP's Facebook page. Despite some of the newer globals, I am not quite ready to call this a "bust" yet and go cliff diving. Yet, it seems like a lot of you have already jumped and are plummeting to the ground.  

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2 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

Guessing it takes longer to come East up 85 - sitting on the northern eastside of Spartanburg county - all signals seem to be pointing at an ice storm for our area, we shall see

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4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Notice the low pressure is up into central AL and GA. I spoke about this a few days ago. This often happens in STJ dominate system where CAD has setup. This always changes everyone to ice except for the NW mountains. That's why these 10:1 snow ratio maps posted all week were worthless.

They should be banned TBH.

The amount of midlevel warmth is going to really cut down on snow for folks tomorrow. I'm predicting a lot of "why is it already sleeting?" posts.

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Just now, WidreMann said:

They should be banned TBH.

The amount of midlevel warmth is going to really cut down on snow for folks tomorrow. I'm predicting a lot of "why is it already sleeting?" posts.

At this point, I’m just hoping for some sleet.

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6 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

I’m in the Five Forks area and I’m pretty comparable.  37.8/36.2

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9 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

interesting, I'm at 38.5/37 - temp very dependent on rates - 2 miles north of I-85 near DT Greenville - mixing occurs with higher precip rates - precip lightens and the temp can rise 1/2 degree and mixing stops

I can also verify this - 5-6 miles NNW of I-85 in the Upstate west of GVL the way the crow flies, sitting at 37 and mixing when precip gets heavy, all rain when it lightens up.  It is trying...

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Top image is the last frame from the most recent HRRR at 700mb. You can see the warm nose very clearly. Bottom image is from the 12Z NAM at the same time. Both models have it, but the NAM is more pronounced. 

 

700th.us_ma.png

700th.us_ma.png

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Is this really any different than any other storm. We really do not know. It is rinse and repeat. Eroding CAD, rain/snow/sleet/ice line setting up somewhere along the 85 corridor. Climatology always wins here except for every once a decade it seems. It all depends on the track of the low and strength of the CAD and we really do not know how it sets up until go time!

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12 minutes ago, ryan1234 said:

"If you haven't prepared for this winter storm, your window is closing rapidly. Driving will be dangerous AT LEAST tonight through tomorrow PM and many folks will lose power. A bunch of us at the office at GSP are even planning to sleep here tonight. This is one to take seriously."

 

This just came in from GSP's Facebook page. Despite some of the newer globals, I am not quite ready to call this a "bust" yet and go cliff diving. Yet, it seems like a lot of you have already jumped and are plummeting to the ground.  

Nobody is “jumping off a cliff” - people are consuming the data. Right now it follows what most expected. A warm nose eroding cad. 

 

 

1E71E792-2808-4010-AFBC-35CE4AD24B97.jpeg

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Right now I'd say the Euro and the FV3 look pretty close with the cutoff line somewhere along highway 73 in the southern piedmont of NC.

Sleet will probably mix in everywhere time to time with warm pockets coming through but more south of there.

Carry on.

 

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18 minutes ago, Cornsnow said:

Is this really any different than any other storm. We really do not know. It is rinse and repeat. Eroding CAD, rain/snow/sleet/ice line setting up somewhere along the 85 corridor. Climatology always wins here except for every once a decade it seems. It all depends on the track of the low and strength of the CAD and we really do not know how it sets up until go time!

Pretty much this.  I’d say it’s classic climatology with a few things working AGAINST it.  Source air region isn’t that cold.  Antecedent in situ air isn’t that dry (dewpoints in the 20s, not 0s/teens).  Early season warmer inshore waters promoting closer-in energy handoff and coastal low track (watch Southport, NC climb into the 60s during the event as the low passes nearshore). 

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Just now, blueheronNC said:

Pretty much this.  I’d sat it’s classic climatology with a few things working AGAINST it.  Source air region isn’t that cold.  Antecedent in situ air isn’t that dry (dewpoints in the 20s, not 0s/teens).  Early season warmer inshore waters promoting closer-in energy handoff and coastal low track (watch Southport, NC climb into the 60s during the event as the low passes nearshore). 

Still not completely over. We really do not know what the complete outcome will be. Sure if you are further south on the normal battleground it could be worse but there is no guarantee. We still need to see how it plays out. I would not be surprised either way at this point.

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1 minute ago, Cornsnow said:

Still not completely over. We really do not know what the complete outcome will be. Sure if you are further south on the normal battleground it could be worse but there is no guarantee. We still need to see how it plays out. I would not be surprised either way at this point.

The HRRR is holding on - its historically good with eroding CAD on model verification scores. It's still looking good. 

However, there is a 50+KT SWly jet aloft, that doesn't bode well. 

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The RAP...FWIW...through 15Z tomorrow has nearly 1" qpf in the Triad, all of which should be snow per model soundings. It does have the 700 and 850 mb warm nose, but it keeps it confined to the SW Mountains, over to Charlotte, and then NE toward the Triangle.

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41 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

HRRR still looks good.  For some reason in my mind, it's always been the harbinger of the dreaded warm nose, not the NAM.  I'm happy it's on my side.  We'll see. 

 

41 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

17z HRRR holding on to keeping rain much further south. 

8E947E2D-24BA-4AFB-902D-394495A49311.png

It does look great. I am sure there will be ice mixed in, but I think the majority of the models are showing a good hit of snow before changing to ice up my way. I'll take the majority instead of seeking out the one or two that show the worst case scenario.

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