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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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9 minutes ago, mstr4j said:

Burrel I hope its right - My issue early on and even now are marginal temperatures at best.  Many have talked about it being an issue in the upper levels but I think it is still a major deal on the surface.  Temps did not get as cool last night as originally forcasted so even more radiant heat must be expelled.  Us GSP-I-85 people understand how hard it is to get even the surface levels down to below freezing then mix in some upper level warmth from the low in the upper levels and it has potential bust written all over it.  I'm no expert, don't claim to be just a redneck with a commonsense approach to figuring out what will hjappen in our area.  We need to hope the HP funnels some cold air down in a hurry!  And hopefully it will!!  This is no shot at mets and professionals, what they do is hard, especially in this region.  They all do a great job

This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. 

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47 minutes ago, UpstateSCGamecock said:


GSP’s discussion page doesn’t give much hope for snow south of 85 and they are not sure if frozen gets to advisory criteria. Your post gives me hope. Thanks for the informative posts for your neck of the words. That would bode well for me in S of 85 in SC.


.

 

Well it's certainly by no means a lock and  the chances are based on the fv3 and euro mainly...nam says no and the hrrr says it's sleet (or maybe some snow mixed in..it's hard to say since i'm near 100% positive it's surface temps are several degrees too warm as is usually the case in these situations and could be throwing it off). If it happens, it would be sometime between 01z/02z and 06z in ga and 09z in sc  as the fv3 also brings the warm nose screaming in. 

it would be nice to see the nam come on board but the 12z run is holding firm. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

850th.us_se (1).png

refcmp_ptype.us_se.png

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4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

12Z NAM is still crusher of dreams for southern fringes.. Lots of IP/ZR

refcmp_ptype.us_ma (1).png

But it trended better than 6z run. More snow before changeover to sleet/zr, at least per radar graphics.  

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

But it trended better than 6z run. More snow before changeover to sleet/zr, at least per radar graphics.  

Yea initial rain then all snow until 5-6am or so in clt. 3k looks colder too

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10 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. 

Places from clayton, to salem, to pumpkintown to travelers rest have the potential to flip over to heavy snow around 4 or 5pm tonight. That looks to be the southern extent of this possible early changeover.

I'm not factoring that in to my expectations becuase I don't believe that changeover will make it to my house, but if I lived in the above area's I would be feverishly watching the data pouring in today and crossing my fingers and toes.

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So the heavy precip looks to be nearly finished by tomorrow night.  Which feature are we looking at to extend this into Monday? Originally I thought it was just a slow system riding up the coast.  But after seeing a couple models kick this quickly OTS over night, is there a second low swinging thru? I saw a mention of a double barrel low thru my weary eyes overnight.  

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Just now, mstr4j said:

I think places like Landrum and Campobello have a good chance too burrel

absolutely... I didn't mean that the chances stop at travelers rest. I would love to be living in Landrum right now!

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The NAM is better than previous runs but it does have a pronounced warm nose coming through at 700 mb. It looks like the warm nose affects areas from Charlotte to RDU and points just south of 85 in the Triad. HRRR has the same warm nose, but less pronounced and stays well south. 

Also of interest is the 9Z GSO SREF. Snowfall mean jumped to 10" and total qpf mean around 2." Altogether an encouraging run of models so far for many of us.

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

So the heavy precip looks to be nearly finished by tomorrow night.  Which feature are we looking at to extend this into Monday? Originally I thought it was just a slow system riding up the coast.  But after seeing a couple models kick this quickly OTS over night, is there a second low swinging thru? I saw a mention of a double barrel low thru my weary eyes overnight.  

Is that a second wave over Fort Worth, Texas? That’s what I was thinking. I might be wrong though. 

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2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that a second wave over Fort Worth, Texas? That’s what I was thinking. I might be wrong though. 

Isn't it the upper level low? I was wondering the same

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1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Is that a second wave over Texas? That’s what I was thinking. 

that is the upper level part of this storm. that is what is suppose to swing through with the second wave of precip. Although models have trended less with the precip from this feature as it swings through.

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So for RDU folks, the 12z NAM did come in slightly colder. Meaning the initial snow line setups just south and east of Wake County. Then it still slowly pushes NW through the event. The last run had it eventually turning to rain back into Durham/Orange counties. But this run keeps the rain line no farther NW then the RDU airport until very late in the game; when the bulk of the precip is over.  

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12 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

This is precisely my concern right now. Last night models were showing changeover here between 11 am and 1 pm, hence GSP moving my WSW up to noon. But temps have been 3-4 degrees or more above forecast all night long and continues to refuse to budge this morning. I know that we’ll see changeover by the heart of the storm, but going to miss out on a lot more qpf than initially expected before then. 

Local temps are as low as 33 at sky valley  and 38 at the dot station in clayton currently which is about where they should be. I haven't seen anything that has changed that would lead me to believe your changeover wouldn't be around mid day to early afternoon.  

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

absolutely... I didn't mean that the chances stop at travelers rest. I would love to be living in Landrum right now!

absolutely - I work up that way and told many that a potential huge snow was coming their way - I'm probably 10-12 miles south and east of Landrum right on the I-85 corridor but luckily my area IMO is still considered Northern Upstate - it's such a sharp gradient in these locations!   Hoping for a bigun! 

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On the topic of the upper waves.  The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas.  The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan  - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE.  Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now.  Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

3K NAM much more of a warm nose up into the Triad. A lot of sleet after about 15Z. 

Yea 3k at 32 has the low around Wilmington. That will promote warming and thus a more “sleety” sounding usually.

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Just now, beanskip said:

Evidence of the 12z shift to colder.  

 

 

Was really expecting this yesterday to kind of have the final guess locked in. I really think the usual snow starved areas end up doing well in this one. 

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

On the topic of the upper waves.  The core of our storm is the upper wave currently over W Texas.  The trailing upper wave that drops down is currently over N Montana / Saskatchewan  - it will drop SE into Arkansas and down thru the SE.  Some earlier model runs were more impressive with it, but not as much now.  Still, the 06z Euro says there could be some light snow showers with it Sunday overnight into Monday morning in E TN / N GA / W NCSC

If this much snow falls you're also gonna see temps plummet so anything that fell would stick. It could be an intriguing little bonus. 

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As mentioned yesterday this is a sleet storm for most (CLT/RDU even the Triad). While I do think the Triad can see maybe 8 inches (and thats a lot, this remains a snowstorm for Winston West and a mixed bag of let down (if you like snow) for the majority.

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