Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    15,390
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    scourt
    Newest Member
    scourt
    Joined
Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS. 

gfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Poimen said:

FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS. 

gfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif

@wncsnow @BornAgain13 looks like FV3 made incremental steps toward a wetter solution once again for southern VA. Good area of 1” qpf now showing up. Very good sign.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Poimen said:

FV3 has lowered it's qpf some...but still pretty beefy. I'm guessing this is close 1.5" in the Triad, which is in line with other guidance, except the GFS. 

gfs_namer_048_precip_ptot.gif

Very minor differences.. Pretty much on par with the 18z

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

All the models are looking sexy tonight.

Looks like the Fish is sticking to his 1-3. Even after the NWS jump. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BornAgain13 said:

The GFS just continues to still look different from the others and its much quicker. It comes and goes.

It’s the timing. Exactly what it is. Of course a 200 mile difference is going to affect the surface depiction. Hence why we say bye bye Jan 1.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brad P adjusting his totals SOUTH. Hinted earlier that he might have the metro more in the 4-8" range. Have not seen his new maps yet (on at 11), but I'm very curious as to what he's seeing. Hopefully not just too busy to have seen the recent (non-GFS) model suite.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Last one for the night, the GGEM. Just about every model has between 10-14" in the northern Triad. 

GGEM.png

That Can is a horror show for me burns and packfan. Literally and inch in the front yard and 6+ in the back lol

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NCSNOW said:

That Can is a horror show for me burns and packfan. Literally and inch in the front bnb yard and 6+ in the back lol

Won't bother me. I'm more excited about getting a decent snow in broad daylight for a change. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, jburns said:

Won't bother me. I'm more excited about getting a decent snow in broad daylight for a change. 

Im with you. Watching it fall is the best part, then tracking. Web cams in Blowing rock Boone, slopes out to be a hoot this weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Im with you. Watching it fall is the best part, then tracking. Web cams in Blowing rock Boone, slopes out to be a hoot this weekend.

I'll be outside for a good part of the day. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, RTPGiants said:

WRAL is basically Cold Rain and wildremann wrapped into one. Not buying any guidance.

Throw rduwx in there with Cold Rain and Wildremann...LOL!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts whether than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

Basically rain tomorrow afternoon through the night. A small pocket of snow from 2 AM until maybe noon, then back to rain. And that's that. Said temps to the north are too warm to worry him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 


Just like a model, you can’t discredit 39 years of knowledge as much as people want to. His conservative approach often wins out.


.
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map.  I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.  
 

Still saying 1-3. Even with NWS saying 4-6. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

KILM Local AFD finally updated after 3 Days of nothing..

 

Short term /Saturday night through Sunday night/...
as of 300 PM Friday...wet weather expected through this period
as storm system tracks up and off the southeast coast. While
the NAM was the cooler of the models, still holding to an all
rain event for our local forecast area with wintry mix remaining
just west and north of US through this period.

The column will basically remain saturated through this period
with a significant amount of rainfall expected. The track of the
sfc low will remain off shore as it parallels the Carolina
coast through Sunday reaching offshore of the Cape Fear coast
sun evening. This will maintain stiff cool north-NE winds at the sfc
while a moist onshore flow increases above the sfc, with a more
SW flow in the mid to upper levels as shortwave digs down into
the southern states. Overall expect increasing isentropic lift
to drive widespread rain across the area. The best dynamic
cooling will come Sun morning as low tracks across northern FL,
but still looks like local area will remain in all rain. The
overall thermal profile points to all rain throughout our local
forecast area at this time, but the coolest NAM forecast points
to possibility of some mixed pcp Sun morning. The NAM sounding
for lbt Sun morning shows a decent shallow cool layer below 2k
ft and warm nose drops toward 0c for a few hours, but the
grounds will be wet and warmer and do not expect any impacts at
this time. The best chc of seeing any mixed pcp will be in the
far western reaches of Marlboro and Robeson counties.

Expect periods of moderate to heavy rain at times with rainfall
total 2 to 3 inches with possibly greater amounts, especially
along the coast. The main impacts of this storm will be
widespread rainfall, coastal flooding, river levels rising, and
marine hazards. The coastal flooding should occur during Sunday
morning's high tide, with potential for minor to moderate tide
levels. Rivers will rise during this period, with potential for
minor river flooding into early next week. Not expecting any
flash flood problems at this time as rainfall should be steady
and ground is not saturated from any previous rainfall.

Although we are not expecting any wintry mix impacts in our
local area, the temps will be running between 35 and 45 for much
of our area through this period, producing a cold rain. The
brisk northerly winds will make it feel even cooler.

&&

Long term /Monday through Friday/...
as of 300 PM Friday...as low pressure lifts off to the
northeast Monday, shortwave energy will dig down around the base
of mid to upper level trough over the southeast. The models are
hinting at low pressure developing off the southeast coast Mon
night which should hold onto clouds and pcp a bit longer, as it
wraps around the back end of the low. This will coincide with
decent cold air advection. Therefore some flurries or snow showers are not out
of the question Mon. Temps will not rise past the 40s most
places on Mon in cold air advection with temps remaining cool through mid week
as high pressure builds in on the back end of the low. …..

Post a lot of Pictures Our upstate Folks! My Step=Daughter is in Pinelevel (just southEast of Raleigh), With Her GF currently, I told Her expect a "pastebomb"..
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×