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December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
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I agree with the cautionary statements at this lead. It is encouraging though to see the basic setup of strong-ish and cold high pressure suppressing a southern slider of a surface low pressure. And its certainly fun to track these potentials with all our fancy and evolving digital modeling. 

Obviously it should be no surprise if most of us end up with cold rain, but there is at this point still a chance for some frozen precip types. We will see. Enjoy the ride. At least we are out of hurricane season for now!

Cheers everyone for another winter season.

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It is far from the perfect track for the RDU area on the overnight Euro, but there would be at least a backside deform band for a couple of hours and a quick couple of inches in that scenario I would think. Otherwise it would be mostly rain/mixed-p . Obviously that will shift again and it is a single op run so we shall see. We are far from full consensus at this time.

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10 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

ICON seems to be out on its own island.

Are you referencing because of its depiction or warmth or both? I mean it’s def a plausible outcome at this range. It’s track isn’t far off from any of the major models. It is by far the warmest of anyone however. It has the HP originally in northern New England but has it exit stage before precip really ever gets here. 

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

It is far from the perfect track for the RDU area on the overnight Euro, but there would be at least a backside deform band for a couple of hours and a quick couple of inches in that scenario I would think. Otherwise it would be mostly rain/mixed-p . Obviously that will shift again and it is a single op run so we shall see. We are far from full consensus at this time.

what a nice storm to welcome you back to the SE snow reality.  hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

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1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

If the modelling is close to being accurate on the HP, I'm not overly worried about surface temps. This rivals some of the better HP configurations I've seen in a while. A lot about this setup reminds me of Dec 2002/2003. Mostly driven by good timing of a HP system and excellent split-flow +PNA setup. I think this will definitely have a solid ICE trainsition zone b/n the snow and rain. The outlying question is how much interaction we get w/ the northern stream on the backside, as that will likely start edging the SLP closer to the coastline and push the ICE futher NW. This setup is likely to be a Miller A/B hybrid w/ a SLP in the lower deep south and then potentially riding the coastline. I really like areas of NW NC. Foothills/mountains into southern Virginia when it comes to pure snow. I am soooo tempted to just go to Banner elk for my AirBNB w/ the family and hope we get trapped lol.

Agree with this, the places that have won with previous storms will likely win again. This is just such a beefy, large storm that the jackpot area could be 14-20 inches instead of 10-14 inches like our last couple of miller As. There was a storm in late January 2009 that this storm kind of reminds me of, don't know if the telecommunications/setup was the same but I remember that storm as another rumbling, west to east long duration event. I stayed in a suburb of Winston Salem with family friends and got a great storm. 

 

I would though, not hang my hat on the fact that this CAD high will be there. The 00z GFS, while an outlier, was also completely plausible, with an arctic trough/front creating warm air advection ahead of it in the NE and completely sabotaging the cold air supply. 

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Just now, DopplerWx said:

what a nice storm to welcome you back to the SE snow reality.  hoping for the best but expecting the worst.

If it verifies. It could end up easily putting me in the sanitarium lol. I miss snow already, and in VT they have had an epic November. I am just happy I was there for the Pi Day event in 2017 with my first ever 30 incher:
17240057_10104145635954229_2426412228305

17240610_10104145634053039_6537587400051

17349720_10104145743044619_7352352702438

17240612_10104145634626889_5822074102203

17358497_10104145634951239_3151295489441

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5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

If it verifies. It could end up easily putting me in the sanitarium lol. I miss snow already, and in VT they have had an epic November. I am just happy I was there for the Pi Day event in 2017 with my first ever 30 incher:
17240057_10104145635954229_2426412228305

 

 

 

 

What would you guess the rate to be in that first pic?  Looks like about 3"/hr at least.

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Just now, Cold Rain said:

That's pretty amazing.  I have never seen snow like that in person.  Your pic is one of the snowiest pics I've seen.  I'll bet that was so fun.

It was amazing but believe it or not things re-opened quick up there. Awesome powder in the ski areas (some saw 60"). I still think jan 2000 in Southern Pines was the most significant snow event I have been through in terms of impact.

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Just now, eyewall said:

It was amazing but believe it or not things re-opened quick up there. Awesome powder in the ski areas (some saw 60"). I still think jan 2000 in Southern Pines was the most significant snow event I have been through in terms of impact.

With that 2000 storm there were some high rates as well. I'm with you, for impact is was huge. 

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