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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. 

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1 minute ago, PackWxMan said:

Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. 

LOL remember that when western piedmont and foothills get over a foot 

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1 minute ago, PackWxMan said:

Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. 

Just 3 hours ago you were getting upset at RAH for not calling for enough snow. Now you're back to cold rain? 

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

FV3 looks great still. Widespread 12-18 wallop from Danville SE to Winston to Hickory to AVL 

It’s been consistent too. Can’t ignore that. 

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2 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. 

I intend to agree with you. Checking upstream now 

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Sooo....this is my forecast per weather.gov.

saturday night-  new snow 2-4” possible.

sunday- new snow or sleet accumulations of 3-7” possible.

So could be 5” or 11”...hah, middle of Charlotte.

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Yeah. Western N.C. will see snow. However the majority of us in NC are in the metro areas. CLT / Raleigh and even greensboro. 

I like the runs yesterday but today it’s been a nose dive into warmer temps aloft and fading precipitation at the hands of the CAD. All good. It’s early dec. plenty more months. Sleetfest 2018 incoming. 

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3 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Yeah. Western N.C. will see snow. However the majority of us in NC are in the metro areas. CLT / Raleigh and even greensboro. 

I like the runs yesterday but today it’s been a nose dive into warmer temps aloft and fading precipitation at the hands of the CAD. All good. It’s early dec. plenty more months. Sleetfest 2018 incoming. 

GSO should get plenty of snow

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1 minute ago, CADEffect said:

Something to consider the convection along the Gulf Coast needs to stay in check. Anyone else seen if it will be a problem for QPF 

Not sure much analysis can be done until the storm gets there.  Always a potential though.  

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1 minute ago, CADEffect said:

Something to consider the convection along the Gulf Coast needs to stay in check. Anyone else seen if it will be a problem for QPF 

Doesn't appear to be also has a lot to do with orientation...convection can also enhance banding.  

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13 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Reports to the west of warmer mid levels than modeling showed. Nam going north, GFS calming down. All we can hope for is the FV3 and Euro hold. That’s all sleet tho. This is a sleet of r cold rain for majority of us regardless of what models show. 

Maybe read more and post less? I don't know if you're trolling us or being serious. Where are the mods at?

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You haven't lived in NC long enough if you don't expect a bust on every snow forecast.  I am fine with less snow in Raleigh so long as its not being replaced by freezing rain.  Just bust out with cold rain at that point won't be the first time and certainly not the last time it happens haha

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Let's not start arguing.  If you post a contrary forecast you need to back it up with sound reasoning or I will delete your posts.

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1 minute ago, burgertime said:

Doesn't appear to be also has a lot to do with orientation...convection can also enhance banding.  

From what I understand thunderstorms oriented perpendicular to the storm track essentially act as a firehouse of moisture into a system, whereas storms oriented parallel to the storm track can basically act to cut off the conveyor belt of moisture by disturbing the inflow into the storm.

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For those of y’all who are curious about gulf convection, you don’t want a horizontal (—)line across the gulf. If the storms are lined up like this (/) it can actually add to moisture. 

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Insanely tight gradient over Rabun County in NE GA. Less than an inch to more than a foot.

gfs_2018-12-07-18Z_096_35.621_275.206_34.145_278.027_Snowfall_72_highways_cities.thumb.png.b87e06ab9850262eebd0bbede16e1cfe.png

Wow that is amazing lol. I just wish the wedge would start building down so we can see at least something frozen 

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

From what I understand thunderstorms oriented perpendicular to the storm track essentially act as a firehouse of moisture into a system, whereas storms oriented parallel to the storm track can basically act to cut off the conveyor belt of moisture by disturbing the inflow into the storm.

Yea Allan did a good write up on it and I believe you're exactly right. 

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1 minute ago, CADEffect said:

Elevation?

Definitely a big factor, and from soundings the warm nose doesn't quite get into the far northern portion as much.

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3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 18z RGEM:

RGEM1207201818z.png

Well we know who Virginia is rooting for....I'm ready to see how this battle between ice and snow plays out and where the battle lines are. Also that cutoff on the RGEM is pretty wild. 

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