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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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12 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Well, scratch my earlier freezing rain graphic with the 3k nam.  It got icy over the last few panels.

zr_acc.us_ma.png

Really hope that doesn't materialize. That would be a massive mess. Don't need any more damage across the state.

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The gradient for Wake is funny. And 10.3 for Durham, but 3.9 for Raleigh. 

Climo 

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5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The gradient for Wake is funny. And 10.3 for Durham, but 3.9 for Raleigh. 

18z NAM has Wake County going to rain a lot quicker than Durham County.  That's probably the difference in amounts.

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16 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Well, scratch my earlier freezing rain graphic with the 3k nam.  It got icy over the last few panels.

zr_acc.us_ma.png

And Union County NC where I live is lit up like a Christmas tree.  Few miles north to the Meck border and we are toast.  Ugh.  Just fired up the generator to make sure all is good and ready just in case.  As long as we don’t lose natural gas we will be good. 

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1 minute ago, SLAMSTORM22 said:

I would highly advise to not settle on the Nam till almost game time 

Sometimes it’s hard to decipher if there’s just fascination with a new run or if we should buy into it. 

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1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

And Union County NC where I live is lit up like a Christmas tree.  Few miles north to the Meck border as we are toast.  Ugh.  Just fired up the generator to make sure all is good and ready just in case.  As long as we don’t lose natural gas we will be good. 

if we get frz rain rates will be heavy and temps marginal. these 1:1 frz rain maps likely won't even come close to verifying.

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Everything seems to be trending towards your typical NC snowstorm.  If you are used to getting snow in these storms you are gonna get snow, if you are used to gettting rain you are gonna get rain.  If you are used to having no clue until the event is over guess what.... That means that area from Raleigh down to Charlotte where they never have any clue what you will actually end up with... yep they still have no idea what that area ends up with this time.

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16 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said:

And the Sunday 0Z HRRR Simulated Radar

 

 

2018-12-07_15-55-23.jpg

35 hour output from HRRR is useless. 

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28 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Why doesn't the GSP WSW language match up at all with the GSP current expected snowfall maps? Seems odd. 2-6 for the metro sounds very reasonable, but the mountains could easily exceed 6-10.

Mountains and the Northern Foothills(Burke Caldwell McDowell) have there own winter storm warning calling for 12-16 inches.

 

NCZ033-035-049-050-501>506-081000- /O.CON.KGSP.WS.W.0006.181209T0000Z-181210T1700Z/ Avery-Alexander-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell- Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford, Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, and Glenwood 345 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO NOON EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 12 to 16 inches. Ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch are also possible along and south of I-40. * WHERE...The northern mountains and foothills of North Carolina. * WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to noon EST Monday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel will be very difficult or even impossible. Road conditions will deteriorate Saturday night, with highway travel continuing to be impacted through early next week. Visibility may drop to less than a half mile during periods of heavy snow. A few power outages will occur. Widespread, prolonged power outages are possible. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet and ice will make travel very hazardous or impossible. Please report snow and ice accumulations by calling the National Weather Service toll free at...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. Leave a message with your observation and the specific location where it occurred. You can also post your report to National Weather Service Greenville Spartanburg Facebook or tweet your report using hashtag nwsgsp. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates. Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp. && $$ Wimberley

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RAH


Southern stream shortwave over the Lower MS Valley Saturday evening
will eject east-northeast across the Southeast US through   Sunday
night. At the surface, attendant sfc low traversing the Gulf Coast
States on Saturday will re-organize off the SE coast Sunday and
Sunday night before moving out to sea on Monday. Preceded by a
strong cold Arctic high that will build into the area from the north
Saturday and Saturday night, there is still high confidence that a
significant winter weather event will unfold across  central NC late
Saturday night and Sunday, with the potential for some lingering
light precipitation Sunday night as the next shortwave trough
approaches the area from the west.

Forecast confidence in snow amounts are highest along and north of
the I-85, including the Triad, where the strong CAD High to our
north and associated diabatic cooling will keep the low-level cold
air locked in place and where the warm nose will be less prominent.
So after a potential brief mix at onset Saturday night, the
predominate p-type will be mostly snow through late Sunday afternoon
and evening, transitioning to a light freezing rain/drizzle, once we
loss saturation aloft and lift/forcing begins to weaken. Have kept
snowfall amounts in the 8 to 12 inches range, with the bulk of this
falling between 4 am to  pm Sunday. An additional 0.10" of ice from
light freezing rain/drizzle on top of the snow is possible. Given,
this is the area where confidence is highest, will upgrade the
winter storm watch to a warning across the far NW Piedmont counties,
including Person County.

Just east of this heavy snow area(south and east of I-85) and west
of Interstate 95, given the potential for the warm nose aloft to
support multiple p-types throughout much of the event, forecast
confidence in snow amounts are much lower in this area, which would
greatly cut-back on snow accumulation. However, the latest 12 km NAM
has trended colder both in the low-levels and aloft across the
central/northern Piedmont, as well into the northern coastal Plain.
Given the colder thermal profiles, snow and sleet could now linger
into afternoon/early evening, before changing over to freezing
rain/drizzle with loss of saturation and lift aloft Sunday
evening/night. Have expanded the Winter Storm Watch east to include
areas west of I-95. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible,
with expectations of a sharp cut-off along the eastern edge of these
area. IF the warm air aloft is indeed stronger than advertised, the
impacts across this area will still be great, with the potential for
ice accumulations from freezing rain of 0.10-0.20" possible.

Finally, for areas east of I-95 and across the far se counties, rain
Saturday night/Sunday morning could briefly mix with sleet and
freezing rain before changing over to rain. At this time, snow and
ice amounts are expected to be light. As such, will be omitted from
the watch.

Temperatures: Lows Saturday night in the upper 20s NW to mid 30s,
with only a 2 to 3 degree recovery expected on Sunday. Lows Sunday
night very similar to Saturday night. Thus any snow and ice on roads
and surfaces will linger through Monday.

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Looks like there’s a consensus forming here on the 18z models thus far. RGEM, NAM and ICON all have the low paralleling the coast up toward the outer banks now and one would suspect that the 18z CMC once it comes out would show something similar. 

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7 minutes ago, wake4est said:

RAH’s afd should please the Triangle greatly

I'm presuming the forecast map will be updated soon. RDU is currently shown at 2". Based on a blend of the guidance, I'm thinking 3"-6". I haven't looked at the 18z guidance, yet, so maybe something changed.

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34 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Why doesn't the GSP WSW language match up at all with the GSP current expected snowfall maps? Seems odd. 2-6 for the metro sounds very reasonable, but the mountains could easily exceed 6-10.

I'd check the counties. Cause my WSW just issued by them covers portions of Western NC, NW upstate, and far NE GA and it has a ridiculously wide range of 2 to 17 inches.

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