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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall.

Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow.

Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record.

NC-SCSnow12-2018.jpg

All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia.

 

I am trying really hard to rein in my excitement, but when Don Sutherland drops in and specifically mentions Hickory...wowza!  It's about to get real...

Thanks to all the great mets and enthusiasts who frequent our forum and who lend their expertise to others.  I so enjoy reading your thoughtful comments and explanations to those of us not as skilled in the art but very much as interested it.  You guys are the best!

Here's hoping we reel this one in... :pepsi:

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I made some minor changes to my snow totals map. The reasoning is below...

1272018SecondCallMap-1.png

I am still concerned about the warm nose; however, I did expand the 10-20 inch range to cover parts of the foothills and the 6-12 inch range to cover most of the Triad. I also included Charlotte in the 2-5 inch range as it appears temperatures might remain around freezing through the event.

The Skew-T diagrams show a very difficult forecast for nearly everyone along and east of I-85. For Greensboro, the temperature aloft is very close to 32, which makes forecasting a nightmare. Usually, the warm nose wins out for most locations near I-85, and sometimes it wins out in the Catawba Valley and foothills.

So, as for now, I am going to continue to play it conservative near I-85 because of the warm air advection and the potential for sleet instead of snow. It is very difficult to keep the warm air away during any winter storm in the Carolinas, and once the warm nose arrives, it is nearly impossible to remove it.

On the flip side, the amount of moisture with this storm is really amazing. Some parts may receive 2 inches equivalent of rain, which is a lot of snow and sleet. While I do not expect the snow ratio to be 10:1, I still expect there will be areas in the mountains, foothills, and even parts of the Catawba Valley or Triad that see a foot of snow.

While the verdict is still out, this has the opportunity to be a storm to remember for parts of NC and VA. If you would like to watch my latest video update from this afternoon, here is the link: http://www.wxjordan.com/forecast/12-7-2018-friday-afternoon-winter-weather-update/

 

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19 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

 

I like cranky, and I think he can have some moments of brilliance, but often I find his reasoning to be oversimplified...  like right here. Gee, if it were as easy as looking at cirrus clouds, I'd be out of a job right now.

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The convection from gulf fetch on the Texas coast looks to be happening now on WV and radar.  Earlier and more than modeled

 

Looks juicy

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3 minutes ago, Shane said:

The convection from gulf fetch on the Texas coast looks to be happening now on WV and radar.  Earlier and more than modeled

 

Looks juicy

Are we beginning the radar hallucinations this early? Lol jk, hope it juices up big time

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39 minutes ago, Lookout said:

If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well  but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you.  It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow  it  shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being  mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. 

Hope that rings true for Lumpkin/White county too....seems the warm nose may come get us, but also we typically do great with CAD....

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3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

NAM isn't as wet with the onset of snow compared to 12z. Still has precip breaking out but stays around GSP. Out to 21 hours. 

Lots of mid level dry air (this at GSO)

nam_2018120718_021_36.11--79.92.png

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Just now, burgertime said:

This run of the NAM looks like it's slower with the LP system as well. Def a lot less wet for the I-85 corridor out to 27. 

 Burg, if the system is slower does that help the n/s turn it more negative or is that negligible at this point? 

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20 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

 

I am trying really hard to rein in my excitement, but when Don Sutherland drops in and specifically mentions Hickory...wowza!  It's about to get real...

Thanks to all the great mets and enthusiasts who frequent our forum and who lend their expertise to others.  I so enjoy reading your thoughtful comments and explanations to those of us not as skilled in the art but very much as interested it.  You guys are the best!

Here's hoping we reel this one in... :pepsi:

Thanks for the kind words. I'm hoping that this forum gets to enjoy a really memorable event.

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This is weird run...LP is further south and slower. Temps rise, but then it looks like a good CAD setup is gonna reinforce and save the day. It's at hour 34 and outside of far western NC, much of NC hasn't seen any real precip yet. 

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Just now, beanskip said:

OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF?

The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing

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Just now, olafminesaw said:

The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing

^This

comparing apples to oranges if the column isn't saturated

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF?

No evaporation cooling taking place?

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1 minute ago, beanskip said:

OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF?

Need precip to really move in and crash the temps.. it's slower, thus the warmer temps

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1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

The column is less saturated, wait for the heavy precip to arrive before comparing

Yep thats the difference in the surface temps in my opinion. Later onset means later to wetbulb down.

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