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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Just now, griteater said:

Euro

typPwyM.gif

this run of the euro sure gives hope that there could be quite a bit more snow/sleet in northeast ga than before. Now has precip changing over to all snow for a while down to places like gainesville and hartwell with a mix here before the warm nose aloft moves through. That snow would could help drop temps to freezing earlier by several hours  which could mean more freezing rain, again especially along and north of gainesville to hartwell but that's hard to say yet. 

It's only going to one more small downward temp adjustment aloft to make potentially change things quite a bit...maybe even south of 85. Damn shame though that the warm nose is still there above 850mb....but given precip rates, makes me wonder if sleet will be more expansive.  That said, this should be quite a hit for NEGA, rabun county, and those areas. 

 

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If you really want to dive in deep with the Euro on a free site, you can view temperatures at many layers at this link.  It takes some getting use to, but for example, it has the vertical scroll bar on the right side here where you can essentially move up and down the column of the atmosphere and view not only 850mb temps, but 800mb temps as well.  The Euro run that is out there now is the 00z from last night as it takes it a little longer to update.  It says the 1z run will update around 3:30

https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?850h,temp,2018-12-09-18,35.376,-80.145,8,p:off

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19 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Looks like dewpoints right now across the NW upstate are running in the 20s, all the way SW to Clemson/Walhalla area where they hit the 30s. Looks like 23/24 all the way to GMU, 26 here in Easley, 27 Pickens Airport. That is lower than i was expecting for today. Could figure in later for ground temps once that colder push starts.

My dewpoint is 28 right now

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2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

this run of the euro sure gives hope that there could be quite a bit more snow/sleet in northeast ga than before. Now has precip changing over to all snow for a while down to places like gainesville and hartwell with a mix here before the warm nose aloft moves through. That snow would could help drop temps to freezing earlier by several hours  which could mean more freezing rain, again especially along and north of gainesville to hartwell but that's hard to say yet. 

It's only going to one more small downward temp adjustment aloft to make potentially change things quite a bit...maybe even south of 85. Damn shame though that the warm nose is still there above 850mb....but given precip rates, makes me wonder if sleet will be more expansive.  That said, this should be quite a hit for NEGA, rabun county, and those areas. 

 

Here in Rabun I am absolutely getting much more confident since last nights and this mornings runs, and hope you are right. But still being cautiously optimistic until I see exactly what our temp and dew point are in the morning. Currently 43 with a dew point of 26. 

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17 minutes ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Burrel, what location did you use? 

It's a point and click sounding on TT. Tried to click MBY between Clemson and Central.

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I still like 3-6 inches of snow to sleet in center city Charlotte (as I mentioned late last night).  If the precip wasn't going to be as heavy, I'd probably go 1-3, but I'm expecting fairly heavy precip and just enough cooling for it to pile up quick before a flip to sleet.

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Don't believe I've ever seen the RGEM so far off from other model guidance at 48hrs. It has the primary low still back in alabama while every other model already has the primary transfered to the georgia coast line.

Hopefully it's on crack, bc it's much warmer than other modeling as a result.

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Don't believe I've ever seen the RGEM so far off from other model guidance at 48hrs. It has the primary low still back in alabama while every other model already has the primary transfered to the georgia coast line.

Hopefully it's on crack, but it's much warmer than other modeling as a result.

Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it. Lends credence to CMC that it may not be completely on crack. Kind of nuts with how close the event is now.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it.

I never know quite what to make of the RGEM. It always seems to have strange convective blobs.

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2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Looks like he increased totals a bit. 

It's actually down in Wake at least from 5-9" to 3-7" and he split the county in half (which makes more sense). 

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23 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Here in Rabun I am absolutely getting much more confident since last nights and this mornings runs, and hope you are right. But still being cautiously optimistic until I see exactly what our temp and dew point are in the morning. Currently 43 with a dew point of 26. 

If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well  but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you.  It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow  it  shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being  mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. 

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12 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I never know quite what to make of the RGEM. It always seems to have strange convective blobs.

Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.

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36 minutes ago, griteater said:

If you really want to dive in deep with the Euro on a free site, you can view temperatures at many layers at this link.  It takes some getting use to, but for example, it has the vertical scroll bar on the right side here where you can essentially move up and down the column of the atmosphere and view not only 850mb temps, but 800mb temps as well.  The Euro run that is out there now is the 00z from last night as it takes it a little longer to update.  It says the 1z run will update around 3:30

https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?850h,temp,2018-12-09-18,35.376,-80.145,8,p:off

Windy is a really good site.  The Ventusky app is great as well.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.

I'm guessing the CMC/Rgem are wrong here since the Euro/gfs/fvgfs,ukmet,icon,NAM, etc are all tightly packed with a different solution.

 

Rgem usually does great with thermal profiles and maybe a touch on the cold side for surface temps, but I don't think it can be used at the moment, b/c it's so off-beat synoptically speaking. (unless it's right)

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Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall.

Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow.

Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record.

NC-SCSnow12-2018.jpg

All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia.

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18z run of the hrrr goes out to 36hr and is still running but i figured i would post it.  shows rain but soundings have 2m temps at 46 (5 degrees higher than the forecast) so hopefully out to lunch.

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_27.png

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RGEM has a sharper, more negatively tilted wave as early as 36 hours from now, which is causing the stronger solution. I don't know much about how the RGEM handles synoptics but I wouldn't attribute the run to mishandling of convection. 

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

18z run of the hrrr goes out to 36hr and is still running but i figured i would post it.  shows rain but soundings have 2m temps at 46 (5 degrees higher than the forecast) so hopefully out to lunch.

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_27.png

It's always way too warm at the surface. I am encouraged to see the rain/snow line so far south on it though. You can see where it's isothermal running through the upstate.

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18 minutes ago, Lookout said:

If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well  but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you.  It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow  it  shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being  mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. 

Yeah my thoughts were basically the same that I no longer expect surface conditions to really be a limiting factor, just the potential for more sleet and ZR reducing totals. Hopefully early onset and an In-Situ wedge with heavy rates as you said can help us reach our potential high end amounts. I think Sky Valley area on North end of county may be a lock for 18 plus at this point though. I wish we were getting this setup with some true arctic air to get more of the state into play but 2 years in row with significant winter weather all the way to Atlanta this early in December is certainly fighting against climo.

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33 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it. Lends credence to CMC that it may not be completely on crack. Kind of nuts with how close the event is now.

They from the same family of programers

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