Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm


Orangeburgwx
 Share

Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Here in Rabun I am absolutely getting much more confident since last nights and this mornings runs, and hope you are right. But still being cautiously optimistic until I see exactly what our temp and dew point are in the morning. Currently 43 with a dew point of 26. 

If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well  but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you.  It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow  it  shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being  mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, griteater said:

If you really want to dive in deep with the Euro on a free site, you can view temperatures at many layers at this link.  It takes some getting use to, but for example, it has the vertical scroll bar on the right side here where you can essentially move up and down the column of the atmosphere and view not only 850mb temps, but 800mb temps as well.  The Euro run that is out there now is the 00z from last night as it takes it a little longer to update.  It says the 1z run will update around 3:30

https://www.windy.com/-Temperature-temp?850h,temp,2018-12-09-18,35.376,-80.145,8,p:off

Windy is a really good site.  The Ventusky app is great as well.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.

I'm guessing the CMC/Rgem are wrong here since the Euro/gfs/fvgfs,ukmet,icon,NAM, etc are all tightly packed with a different solution.

 

Rgem usually does great with thermal profiles and maybe a touch on the cold side for surface temps, but I don't think it can be used at the moment, b/c it's so off-beat synoptically speaking. (unless it's right)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall.

Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow.

Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record.

NC-SCSnow12-2018.jpg

All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

18z run of the hrrr goes out to 36hr and is still running but i figured i would post it.  shows rain but soundings have 2m temps at 46 (5 degrees higher than the forecast) so hopefully out to lunch.

hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_27.png

It's always way too warm at the surface. I am encouraged to see the rain/snow line so far south on it though. You can see where it's isothermal running through the upstate.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Lookout said:

If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well  but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you.  It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow  it  shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being  mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. 

Yeah my thoughts were basically the same that I no longer expect surface conditions to really be a limiting factor, just the potential for more sleet and ZR reducing totals. Hopefully early onset and an In-Situ wedge with heavy rates as you said can help us reach our potential high end amounts. I think Sky Valley area on North end of county may be a lock for 18 plus at this point though. I wish we were getting this setup with some true arctic air to get more of the state into play but 2 years in row with significant winter weather all the way to Atlanta this early in December is certainly fighting against climo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Even as residual model uncertainty persists, my confidence in a scenario where parts of North Carolina receive a significant to major snowfall is high. Right now, I'm thinking that Greensboro and Hickory could challenge or exceed their biggest snowfall for the first 15 days of December and possibly even their December record snowfall.

Parts of the region will also experience sleet, freezing rain, and rain. Those forms of precipitation will likely hold down accumulations to more modest levels in such cities as Charlotte and Raleigh. Nevertheless, I believe both cities will likely pick up 3"-6" snow.

Below is a table showing my current thinking, the December 9 daily snowfall record, the December 1-15 snowfall record, and the December snowfall record.

NC-SCSnow12-2018.jpg

All in all, this should be quite an event for parts of the Carolinas and possibly a small portion of western Virginia.

 

I am trying really hard to rein in my excitement, but when Don Sutherland drops in and specifically mentions Hickory...wowza!  It's about to get real...

Thanks to all the great mets and enthusiasts who frequent our forum and who lend their expertise to others.  I so enjoy reading your thoughtful comments and explanations to those of us not as skilled in the art but very much as interested it.  You guys are the best!

Here's hoping we reel this one in... :pepsi:

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I made some minor changes to my snow totals map. The reasoning is below...

1272018SecondCallMap-1.png

I am still concerned about the warm nose; however, I did expand the 10-20 inch range to cover parts of the foothills and the 6-12 inch range to cover most of the Triad. I also included Charlotte in the 2-5 inch range as it appears temperatures might remain around freezing through the event.

The Skew-T diagrams show a very difficult forecast for nearly everyone along and east of I-85. For Greensboro, the temperature aloft is very close to 32, which makes forecasting a nightmare. Usually, the warm nose wins out for most locations near I-85, and sometimes it wins out in the Catawba Valley and foothills.

So, as for now, I am going to continue to play it conservative near I-85 because of the warm air advection and the potential for sleet instead of snow. It is very difficult to keep the warm air away during any winter storm in the Carolinas, and once the warm nose arrives, it is nearly impossible to remove it.

On the flip side, the amount of moisture with this storm is really amazing. Some parts may receive 2 inches equivalent of rain, which is a lot of snow and sleet. While I do not expect the snow ratio to be 10:1, I still expect there will be areas in the mountains, foothills, and even parts of the Catawba Valley or Triad that see a foot of snow.

While the verdict is still out, this has the opportunity to be a storm to remember for parts of NC and VA. If you would like to watch my latest video update from this afternoon, here is the link: http://www.wxjordan.com/forecast/12-7-2018-friday-afternoon-winter-weather-update/

 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Lookout said:

If i could have i would have took off to clayton again because i think they will do really well  but unfortunately there are things going on keeping me from doing it. At any rate, i'd be excited if i was you.  It looks like once mixed precip or snow starts mid morning tomorrow  it  shouldn't stop for a long time and It's just a matter of how much of which....although if that warm nose above 850 isn't as strong as advertised or rates are heavy enough it could very well end up being  mostly snow...except the light freezing stuff after the dry air punches in aloft sunday. 

Hope that rings true for Lumpkin/White county too....seems the warm nose may come get us, but also we typically do great with CAD....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

 

I am trying really hard to rein in my excitement, but when Don Sutherland drops in and specifically mentions Hickory...wowza!  It's about to get real...

Thanks to all the great mets and enthusiasts who frequent our forum and who lend their expertise to others.  I so enjoy reading your thoughtful comments and explanations to those of us not as skilled in the art but very much as interested it.  You guys are the best!

Here's hoping we reel this one in... :pepsi:

Thanks for the kind words. I'm hoping that this forum gets to enjoy a really memorable event.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • jburns unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...