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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42.

It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now.

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2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Heights are a little lower on the Ukie with the 570dm deeper into the upstate and south of CLT this run compared to 42.

It's only 20-25 miles maybe but every mile counts now.

Also kind of doubt the precipitation minimum showing up over NE NC on the Ukie, haven't seen that on many models

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39 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I love this, but there is no way that is going to be right.  Oh how I wish, though.

Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......

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19 minutes ago, pbrown85 said:

That FV3 Kuchera map has been crazy consistent in showing a good snowfall for GSP. I wonder what it is seeing that others aren't?

I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. 

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1 minute ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

I simply can't believe the consitancy of the FV3 over the past week, it hasn't waivered one bit. What a coup if the overall depictions (not clown map) verified. Still wish that western upstate minimum would go away and fill in with the heavier stuff but i guess it is what it is. 

FV3 doesnt show sleet. 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Problem is the temps at the surface are 33-35 for most of that...according to that it even MBY would be sleet/snow most of the storm though with temps just above freezing...so might be one of those times where we get a quick 2-4" of slop with the heavy rates before it lighten up and goes to cold rain......

I would think that with the wedge and heavy snow falling, we'd hover around freezing or just below.  But there's no way the column is going to be that cold.  It will be really interesting if the Euro comes in similar.  But I expect it will tick north, just like the others.

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Just now, griteater said:

Euro through 39 is a little north with the precip thru GA and TN...temps look pretty much dead on in NC

HP looks good.  Maybe a touch stronger for more CAD in a few frames?  We'll see...

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25 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

He LOVES the SREFs.

Garbage. They are total garbage. I don’t get why anyone would use them. 

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I'm more interested in short/medium range high-res models at this point than globals.  I think RAH and other areas may cut down their totals for central NC, or at least keep them the same. 

I predict I'll be watching the coefficient correlation on my Radarscope app for the mixing line quite a bit...  in southern Wake.

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

Crazy to see a mean like this. 10 plus inches for Raleigh westward. 

DAC1C721-0645-4A58-B4AA-1DDD40920F39.thumb.png.911857a1a980bc7fecc6a57c81c793a4.png

 

FYI, I'm pretty sure a lot of that would be sleet/freezing rain, especially for areas on the S/E edge  (like Raleigh).  Still a significant storm, though.

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

Good thing they are garbage. 

I don't think they are garbage.  I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps.  In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.

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Yeah, was it 2015 when the SREF plumes showed like 12-15 for Raleigh and we got like 2? lol . Plumes are garbage.

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Just now, superjames1992 said:

FYI, I'm pretty sure a lot of that would be sleet/freezing rain, especially for areas on the S/E edge  (like Raleigh).  Still a significant storm, though.

Yeah, even if you cut that in half, it's a good one. 

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I don't think they are garbage.  I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps.  In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.

They are good. But literally only good 3-6 hours out. They will jump all over the place this far out 

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Just now, PackGrad05 said:

I don't think they are garbage.  I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps.  In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.

Well, if Cold Rain says they are garbage, that's good enough for me. 

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2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Well there's no shortage of precip on the Euro up thru NC and it has more precip to the NW like the UKMet....temps looks similar...it's bringing the 0 deg at 850 back well inland

Been consistent at flipping the 850 0 line back inland.

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Sure would be nice if we had an actual Arctic air mass to tap into.  Maybe later this winter we can get a similar setup.

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1 minute ago, Wow said:

Euro thru 60 hrs

 

 

On the torchyness I guess not lol....this is what I get for trying to do this while out in public. 

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Blue Rudge escarpment gets pounded still. One thing I have noticed is the models seem to be taking the storm off the coast quicker and thus warming the 850s quicker with light precip trying to hang back 

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