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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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14 minutes ago, griteater said:

FV3 Loop

g5QIWfp.gif

I love this, but there is no way that is going to be right.  Oh how I wish, though.

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1 minute ago, Rankin5150 said:

Sorry this happened to you all. I am glad everyone was ok. Our Daughter (now 16 yrs old) was born 12 weeks early and had spent 8 weeks in the Neonatal intensive Care Unit. They released her from the Hospital the evening before go time of the storm. We were without power for 7 days. THANK GOD for Propane Gas Logs to heat our house. I begged for them to keep her there for a few more days and no dice. 

 

Rough time and it was doubly rough for you having a new born. Glad everything worked out; definitely a good weather story to link to her birth. 

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11 minutes ago, ozmaea said:

Do u thk hes crazy

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He could be on to something or he could be just generating a little hype on his fb page. He's not a Met around here anymore so he doesn't really have any real negative consequences if he is wrong, but on the off chance hes right people will think he is a winter weather genius.

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Best I can tell the NMM and ARW have trended colder and more supressed initially. Anybody have some good 12z images?
Nmm arw as re those new models never heard of them

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Fish just tweeted:

If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week.

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Just now, jkcraig said:

Fish just tweeted:

If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week.

Now it’s confirmed Wake County getting snow

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Just now, jkcraig said:

Fish just tweeted:

If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week.

They would take the same approach no matter what.

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1 minute ago, jkcraig said:

Fish just tweeted:

If you’re a snow lover in Wake County, you need to realize that there are many ways this system turns out to be a flop, and only a few ways for it to be a big snowstorm. This is precisely why we have taken the ensemble based probabilistic approach we have taken all week.

Wow - thanks Fish. You just explained EVERY snow storm in Raleigh. Which ensembles is he referring to? 

 

For those unfamiliar with Fish, he is typically the most conversative forecaster on earth

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11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Best I can tell the NMM and ARW have trended colder and more supressed initially. Anybody have some good 12z images?

SREF-ARW_TotalSnow_SE_09z_18-12-07_Hr87.thumb.png.9dae8c4f04204a89c82270bfa1dfc70d.png

 

SREF-NMB_TotalSnow_SE_09z_18-12-07_Hr87.thumb.png.59eb9d086235ac32feebf2831b6359d7.png

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1 minute ago, PackWxMan said:

Wow - thanks Fish. You just explained EVERY snow storm in Raleigh. Which ensembles is he referring to? 

 

For those unfamiliar with Fish, he is typically the most conversative forecaster on earth

All the ensembles I have seen show Wake getting a big storm. 

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2 minutes ago, wake4est said:

fv3 Kuchera Map through 60

sss.png

That FV3 Kuchera map has been crazy consistent in showing a good snowfall for GSP. I wonder what it is seeing that others aren't?

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5 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Wow - thanks Fish. You just explained EVERY snow storm in Raleigh. Which ensembles is he referring to? 

 

For those unfamiliar with Fish, he is typically the most conversative forecaster on earth

He LOVES the SREFs.

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