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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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The dew point analysis map is digging much deeper than the HRRR model is showing.  The HRRR model showed the 35 line a bit further back into Georgia but the analysis shows it stretched all the way down into the panhandle.  That is strong wedge IMO.

 image.thumb.png.7a8719a405f4bfcfd05503ddeee6e4fd.png

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I want to continue to see colder temps moving south on the FV3 I hope the trend south on the Operational models hasn’t stopped. Sorry VA, but the upstate S.C. doesn’t score as well as you do. 

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5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?

 

3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Have limited maps on SV so have no clue how it got there. 

6z FV3 gave the LR area between 1-3" on the Kuchera... Just saying...

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2 minutes ago, mckinnonwg said:

The dew point analysis map is digging much deeper than the HRRR model is showing.  The HRRR model showed the 35 line a bit further back into Georgia but the analysis shows it stretched all the way down into the panhandle.  That is strong wedge IMO.

 image.thumb.png.7a8719a405f4bfcfd05503ddeee6e4fd.png

My current DP is dead freezing... Right at 32

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9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

LOL is that 20 inches in Little Rock?

Looks like it, which is somewhat odd since Little Rock isn't under an advisory of any sort with only a chance of a little snow/sleet at the end according to NWS.

I suspect that map is showing ZR/IP as snow, but even so...

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1 minute ago, superjames1992 said:

Looks like it, which is somewhat odd since Little Rock isn't under an advisory of any sort with only a chance of a little snow/sleet at the end according to NWS.

Maybe it's on crack? I have no clue since I just have accumulation maps. Very strange indeed but usually RGM is money. 

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5 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

My current DP is dead freezing... Right at 32

This was the 10z analysis so I definitely expect slight variations but that is solid.

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3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Maybe it's on crack? I have no clue since I just have accumulation maps. Very strange indeed but usually RGM is money. 

Yeah, I agree the RGEM usually does a decent job.

Regarding DPs, the DP is 36 this morning down here in the tropical panhandle of FL, BTW.

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3 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

RDU - 4inches / .25 FRZ Rain / dusting

CLT - 1 inch / .25inch sleet 

GSO - 8inch / .15 FRZ rain

 

count it

Actually I would consider that a win. Bring it!

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Actually I would consider that a win. Bring it!

Just subtract out that .25 of freezing rain and I'd take it. Banking on more snow than that though.

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10 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

RDU - 4inches / .25 FRZ Rain / dusting

CLT - 1 inch / .25inch sleet 

GSO - 8inch / .15 FRZ rain

 

count it

NICE!  Loving that for RDU!

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Small correction north on the 12z gfs compared to 6z which was the furthest south of the globals.  Looks to be a pretty good consensus.  Interested to see how the Hi-Res models correct over the next 2 model suites.

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5 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Definitely colder 850's on the GFS.

Looking for what you are seeing... I dont see any change at 850 or surface really.....

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2 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

Looking for what you are seeing... I dont see any change at 850 or surface really.....

I was comparing the 850 temps.  It was colder than the 6z up through hr 27.  It went the other way after that I'm afraid.

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3 minutes ago, BFF said:

image.png.5d1c3732b682176fd1c4db8e39221330.png

Not a bad sounding right there for CLT at H42. Fully saturated in the DGZ.

Thanks! I have my fingers crossed for the Belmont and Charlotte area(s). Good luck! 

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16 minutes ago, PackWxMan said:

RDU - 4inches / .25 FRZ Rain / dusting

CLT - 1 inch / .25inch sleet 

GSO - 8inch / .15 FRZ rain

 

count it

Where is the other 1.5 in of QPF? Plain rain? It's not a ridiculous guess given climo and potential late north adjustments, but this seems very off base, given recent model trends.

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