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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends. 

 

I think we could get 6 to 8 of snow with some ice on top.

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3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

I think the bust is more due to the storm being further south if I was reading the disco out of Norman, OK correctly. I'd could be wrong though

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Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

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Just now, FallsLake said:

We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends. 

 

Yeah, I agree.  We'll need to cash in on all the snow we can get at the beginning. The 12z NAM is showing somewhere around .8 of zr for the RDU area.  I believe a lot of that will be plain rain or rain at 32 degrees which is like just a cold rain...LOL!

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Just now, Amos83 said:

I think the bust is more due to the storm being further south if I was reading the disco out of Norman, OK correctly. I'd could be wrong though

I think that is exactly what is happening.

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

Busted as in not as much precip totals....more south, more north...etc.

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

 

That is more due to the ULL feature not developing as well.  I would not expect that to translate downstream assuming the surface low and WAA is decent

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For folks along I-85 GSP to CLT as usual it's gonna be a battle between sleet and snow but if we can get just enough cold air those totals could easily be higher. 

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1 minute ago, Ontherocks said:

Will the fact that the rain has already arrived in NGA have an effect? Keep our temps cooler? This precip seems earlier, as there was suppose to be some sun today.....looks like the NAM maybe showed this some

It will have an effect today...in fact it will be a lot colder....up to 15 degrees colder than all of them showed 2 days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't have much impact on whatever falls saturday. Sort of frustrating it can be 15 degrees colder the day before and not really matter lol

Just now, NEGa said:

its hard for here as well since its such a close call.  I am hoping the slightly south trends mean the CAD will be coming in a little stronger. However, historically for NE GA, at least, CAD events are ice ice baby.  Sometimes a front end thump of snow but usually ice (since I am apparently one of the "odd ones" who enjoys all winter wx a good ice storm doesn't really bother me).  my issue with a good glaze is more how heavy the precipitation is. if its too heavy and not into the 20s it might not really ice over all that much

You are in a much improved spot vs 24 hours ago. If the latest few runs of the fv3, euro, and nam are correct, you will get a lot more sleet/snow. You are right about the precip rates/freezing rain though...it's one reason why i haven't been too excited about it outside the higher elevations/your area and the rates/marginal temps would keep accretions down. That said, nam has 950mb temps dropping below freezing as early as late afternoon   tomorrow over your area so you should get quite a bit of wintery precip. 

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1 minute ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

I expect plenty of pictures from everyone that will be enjoying all the wintertime beauty   :hug: 

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Models are coming around to the idea of moistening the column earlier, resulting in higher snow totals. Soundings from the NAM were terrific for Forsyth county. We're squarely in line for a 12"-15" in storm here. 

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Just now, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

You will LOVE IT! I experienced 17" from the February, 2004 Storm and I talk about it to this day. It was so unreal to see it that deep. Brought the rabid weenie out in me. We even had thundersnow during the storm. AWESOME! 

 

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13 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Its gonna be interesting to see if the snow line falls at the balsams or is able to push back to the AT on the clay/macon line. 

If we can get the NE winds shown on the nam and the rates it might workout here. It could just as easily be a few inches of slop!

If the cold can push up and over/around the Great Balsams/Southern Highlands Plateau it should be able to surpass the Cowee Mtns as well. I do fear the Great Balsams will be the dividing line. But hey, that's what makes this part of the state one of the toughest areas to forecast. 

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3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

Looking super promising at the moment.  12Z NAM soundings are surprisingly supportive of all snow (no mixing at all during the event).  So then snowfall will be determined by ratios and compaction.

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm. 

 

I definitely see potential in ATL Monday if the 12Z verified as shown (which it likely won't).  There is a weak surface reflection off SAV along with the upper low coming across.  Often times a weak surface reflection like that is all it takes to crank more moisture in than expected.  I regularly saw that burn forecasters in OK often if you got a weak low to form in SE TX.

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21 minutes ago, Hvward said:

Here’s my most recent forecast map.
e22e1a2727b6d5eef02be77031d07aae.jpg

So, if you live in Person, Granville, Vance, and Warren for example, snow totals will be determined by the state line.  I don't disagree with the assessment, but the graphic needs work.  

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Just now, burgertime said:

For folks along I-85 GSP to CLT as usual it's gonna be a battle between sleet and snow but if we can get just enough cold air those totals could easily be higher. 

I think it will still be some significant totals. I would not be surprised to wring out 8-12" total, based on a blend of all the models right now. My excitement meter is rising fo sho! 

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I think we could get 6 to 8 of snow with some ice on top.

Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). 

But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event. 

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2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Looking super promising at the moment.  12Z NAM soundings are surprisingly supportive of all snow (no mixing at all during the event).  So then snowfall will be determined by ratios and compaction.

Looking in great position based on the NAM! AVL might be the place to be. 

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3 minutes ago, Lookout said:

It will have an effect today...in fact it will be a lot colder....up to 15 degrees colder than all of them showed 2 days ago. Unfortunately it doesn't have much impact on whatever falls saturday. Sort of frustrating it can be 15 degrees colder the day before and not really matter lol

You are in a much improved spot vs 24 hours ago. If the latest few runs of the fv3, euro, and nam are correct, you will get a lot more sleet/snow. You are right about the precip rates/freezing rain though...it's one reason why i haven't been too excited about it outside the higher elevations/your area and the rates/marginal temps would keep accretions down. That said, nam has 950mb temps dropping below freezing as early as late afternoon   tomorrow over your area so you should get quite a bit of wintery precip. 

I am definitely liking how it looks better this morning, but being on the edge, especially the southern edge, always makes me nervous lol.  it is early December so expectations are tempered (but excitement over the possibilities the models are showing is not tempered).  I have seen it 31 and raining so hard it just never really gets a glaze going.  at least it looks like the chances of the higher ice accumulations are down. I love a good ice storm but like to keep my power on :) 

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5 minutes ago, Poimen said:

Models are coming around to the idea of moistening the column earlier, resulting in higher snow totals. Soundings from the NAM were terrific for Forsyth county. We're squarely in line for a 12"-15" in storm here. 

You runing the soundings off pti or smith reynolds airport. I love all your post as your close by to me ,burns,packfan and a few others. Saves us alot if legwork

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1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). 

But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event. 

That or just having the sleet/rain line stay south of Wake.  Transitioning only to sleet then back to snow. That's fantasy wishing at this point I'm afraid.

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10 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Pinch me, I will be headed to AVL tomorrow very early- if they get over 18" (and that seems to be a growing consensus) it will be the biggest snow storm ever there- also I have never personally seen that much snow in one storm.

Congrats you might deserve this the most :drunk:

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5 minutes ago, Berlin1926 said:

So, if you live in Person, Granville, Vance, and Warren for example, snow totals will be determined by the state line.  I don't disagree with the assessment, but the graphic needs work.  

His focus/expertise is Asheville and WNC, not the VA/NC state line. 

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18 minutes ago, eyewall said:

The storm has busted so far in the Southern Plains.  

 

16 minutes ago, Jet Stream Rider said:

Sure has and a good point. Note though there is no GoM or CAD in effect for that region like there will be in our area.

 

Like others, I think that is because the energy is more strung out and further south... Sorry Virginia!

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